Firm survival, as a key indicator of regional economic resilience, has gained increasing attention in the context of global economic uncertainty and the deep adjustments in industrial structures. In the Pearl River Delta (PRD), a core region of China’s Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, the characteristics of firm life cycles are crucial for understanding spatial development inequalities and institutional effects in emerging economies. This study focuses on firms in the PRD, using full life-cycle data from registration, operation, to deregistration. An XGBoost regression model is employed, incorporating the SHAP explanation algorithm, to systematically analyze the main factors influencing firm survival. The results show that: (1) Firm establishment time is the primary factor influencing survival, with significant “survival threshold” and “growth leap” effects—mature firms exhibit a distinct survival advantage; (2) Among spatial structure variables, moderate industry specialization and diversity enhance firm survival rates, while excessive concentration and diversification show diminishing or negative returns, reflecting an “ecological threshold” effect; (3) External shocks have a significant suppressive impact on startups, while policy support and capital size show limited explanatory power; (4) The ownership structure, especially state-holding, has a positive moderating effect on firm survival in specific contexts, indicating that private enterprises’ flexibility and adaptability can compensate for institutional gaps. This study offers insights into the spatial heterogeneity of firm survival mechanisms, providing quantitative evidence for regional economic policy adjustments and firm resilience-building. Recommendations include promoting differentiated policies, optimizing industrial ecological spatial layouts, and piloting systems to enhance survival resilience, especially for mixed-ownership firms.

This paper aims to evaluate the market prospects for foreign trade enterprises in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region of China in the post-COVID era. Despite challenges posed by the pandemic, the market outlook for PRD is positive with global economy projected to recover and high demand for high-tech products such as elect ronics, machinery, and chemicals from developed countries. PRD businesses have adapted to changing market conditions and disruptions in the supply chain, and the Chinese government’s “Dual Circulation” strategy presents new opportunities for PRD foreign trade enterprises by boosting domestic consumption and market demand. To maintain competitiveness, businesses in the region need to adapt to the new normal and take advantage of market opportunities. [译]本文旨在评估后疫情时代中国珠江三角洲（PRD）地区外贸企业的市场前景。尽管疫情带来了挑战，但PRD的市场前景仍然乐观，全球经济预计将复苏，发达国家对电子、机械和化学品等高科技产品的需求也很高。PRD企业已经适应了不断变化的市场条件和供应链的中断，而中国政府的“双循环”战略通过促进国内消费和市场需求，为PRD外贸企业提供了新的机遇。为了保持竞争力，该地区的企业需要适应新常态，并利用市场机遇。