Policy uncertainty

  • 详情 Centralized customers hurting employees? Customer concentration and enterprise employment
    Based on the sample data of Chinese listed companies, this paper finds that the increase in customer concentration significantly reduces the level of enterprise employment. The research results are robust to a series of tests. Further analysis shows that the increase of financing constraints, the increase of enterprise risk and the decrease of profitability are the mechanism of customer concentration affecting enterprise employment. In addition, the negative correlation between customer concentration and enterprise employment is stronger for enterprises with small size, fierce industry competition, and increasing economic policy uncertainty.
  • 详情 Economic Policy Uncertainty and Covenants in Venture Capital Contracts
    This study investigates how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) affects venture capital (VC) contract terms. Using a unique database of contracts between VCs and entrepreneurial firms in China, we provide evidence that VCs include more investor-friendly covenants in contracts when EPU increases. Our findings hold across a battery of robustness checks, including addressing endogeneity concerns and using alternative EPU measures. Our mechanism analysis shows that higher investment risk and increased VCs’ bargaining power might be plausible reasons why EPU positively affects the presence of investor-friendly covenants in VC contracts.
  • 详情 Corporate default risk and environmental deterioration: international evidence
    “How does a firm’s bankruptcy affect its regional environment?” is an open empirical question that has received little attention in the literature. We hypothesize that because enterprises provide funds to protect their regional environment, their default risk negatively impacts that environment. We analyze the impact of corporate default risk on environmental deterioration in the international setting to answer this question. Using a firm-level corporate default risk quarterly data from 2013q1 to 2020q4, we find that corporate default risk is positively associated with CO2 emissions and decomposed components. These findings are reliable in low-income and highly uncertain countries but weak in countries having more market competition. We also find that the negative impact of corporate default risk on the environment is more robust in countries with more population density and fewer forest area thresholds. Finally, using the instrumental variable approach, we provide preliminary evidence that firm-level political risk (for US and Canadian firms only) increases corporate default risk, leading to a degrading environment. Our findings are robust to alternative measurements of a firm’s default risk and environmental deterioration. Our research will help environmental authorities to consider corporate default risk as a determinant when formulating environmental-related strategies.
  • 详情 Does Policy Uncertainty Affect Firms’ Exchange Rate Exposure? Evidence from China
    Analyzing data from 3,616 Chinese listed firms, we find a strong positive relationship between policy uncertainty and firms’ exchange rate exposure. This result remains robust after controlling for macroeconomic conditions and addressing endogeneity issues. Notably, policy uncertainty’s impact is significantly stronger for firms with a higher degree of international involvement and for poorly-governed firms. Interestingly, firms use financial hedging more intensively and reduce their operational hedging in high-uncertainty periods. Our results suggest that policy uncertainty exacerbates the impact of currency movements on firms’ financial performance, as firms become increasingly involved in international operations. Consequently, firms should strengthen their corporate governance and make effective use of hedging tools.
  • 详情 Why Do Firms Purchase Directors’ and Officers’ Liability Insurance? – Perspective from Economic Policy Uncertainty
    Purpose – This study aims to investigate whether firms purchase directors’ and officers’ liability (D&O) insurance when the country-level economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is high. Design/methodology/approach – This study uses D&O insurance data from Chinese listed firms between 2003 and 2019 to conduct regression analyses to examine the association between D&O insurance and EPU. Findings – The results show that government EPU, despite being an exogenous factor, increases the likelihood of firms’ purchasing D&O insurance, and this effect is more pronounced when firms are exposed to great share price crash risk and high litigation risk, suggesting that firms intend to purchase D&O insurance possibly due to the accentuated stock price crash risk and litigation risk associated with EPU. In addition, the results indicate that the effect of EPU on the D&O insurance purchase decision is moderated by the provincial capital market development and internal control quality. Practical implications – The study highlights the role of uncertain economic policies in shareholder approval of D&O insurance purchases. Originality/value – The study enriches the literature on the determinants of D&O insurance purchases by documenting novel evidence that country-level EPU is a key institutional factor shaping firms’ decisions to purchase D&O insurance.
  • 详情 Trade Policy Uncertainty and Market Diversification by Risk-Averse Firms
    This study investigates the relationship between trade policy uncertainty (TPU) and market diversification with risk-averse firms. We build a model to demonstrate how a risk-averse firm diversifies risks stemming from escalating TPU through entering new markets whose trade policies are negatively correlated with ones in its alreadyentered markets. The positive effect of TPU on market diversification is moderated if the firm has lower risk hedging ability and/or is less risk-averse. Conditional on the TPU in the already-entered markets, there is an inverted-U relationship between TPU in the new market and the probability of entering it. Using a unique firm-productlevel dataset on Chinese exporters, we find robust evidence supporting our theoretical predictions.
  • 详情 Macroeconomic determinants of the long-term correlation between stock and exchange rate markets in China: A DCC-MIDAS-X approach considering structural breaks
    Owing to the liberalisation of financial markets, the impact of international capital flows on the Chinese stock market has become substantial. This study investigates the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risk (GPR), consumer sentiment (CCI), macroeconomic fundamentals (MECI), and money supply (M2) on the correlations between the stock and exchange rate markets. The negative correlation between these two markets has become more pronounced in recent years. Moreover, EPU, GPR, CCI, and MECI negatively impact long-term stock-exchange rate correlations, while M2 has a positive impact. Portfolios of stock-exchange rates effectively reduce risk, especially when considering structural breaks.
  • 详情 Economic Policy Uncertainty and Covenants in Venture Capital Contracts
    This study investigates how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) affects venture capital (VC) contract terms. Using a unique database of contracts between VCs and entrepreneurial firms in China, we provide evidence that VCs include more investor-friendly covenants in contracts when EPU increases. Our findings hold across a battery of robustness checks, including addressing endogeneity concerns and using alternative EPU measures. Our mechanism analysis shows that higher investment risk and increased VCs’ bargaining power might be plausible reasons why EPU positively affects the presence of investor-friendly covenants in VC contracts.
  • 详情 Climate Risk and Systemic Risk: Insights from Extreme Risk Spillover Networks
    Climate change shocks pose a threat to the stability of the financial system. This study examines the influence of climate risks on systemic risk in the Chinese market by utilizing extreme risk spillover network. Moreover, we construct climate risk indices for physical risks (abnormal temperature), and transition risks (Climate Policy Uncertainty). We demonstrate a significant increase in systemic risk due to climate risks, which can be attributed, in part, to investor sentiment. Furthermore, institutional investors can mitigate the adverse impact of climate risks. Our findings suggest that policymakers and investors need to exercise greater vigilance in addressing climaterelated adverse effects.
  • 详情 Foreign Discount in International Corporate Bonds
    In recent decades, over 40% of dollar-denominated corporate bonds have been issued by non-US firms. Strikingly, these foreign issuers face an extra discount of 20 bps than their US counterparts. While standard risks fail to account for the discount, the Economic Policy Uncertainty index from Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016) can explain a substantial portion of this discrepancy, consistent with uncertainty-based model calibrations. Moreover, such foreign discount (USA effect) dominates the dollar safety premium (USD effect). My findings highlight the foreign discount effect in interna- tional corporate bonds, particularly amidst escalating global economic instability and uncertainty.