Probit model

  • 详情 The Impact of China's Digital Financial Inclusion on Multidimensional Poverty of Households
    Does digital financial inclusion alleviate poverty? This study investigates this question by integrating the Digital Financial Inclusion Index of Peking University with microdata from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) to examine how the expansion of digital financial inclusion affects household multidimensional poverty in China. Anchored in Amartya Sen ’ s capability approach and operationalized through the Alkire–Foster (A–F) framework, the study identifies multidimensional poverty across five key dimensions: income, health, education, insurance, and living standards. Probit models are employed to estimate how digital financial inclusion influences both the likelihood and structure of multidimensional poverty, while instrumental variable techniques are used to address potential endogeneity. Beyond the average effects, the study further explores the mechanisms through which digital financial inclusion contributes to poverty alleviation, focusing on three channels—promoting household consumption, increasing financial investment, and enhancing access to credit. The results reveal that digital financial inclusion significantly mitigates multidimensional poverty, particularly by improving income, living standards, and health outcomes, though its effects on education and insurance are limited. These findings underscore the transformative role of digital finance in fostering inclusive growth, suggesting that policies expanding digital financial infrastructure and literacy can amplify its poverty-reducing effects and advance equitable development.
  • 详情 IPO Performance and the Choice of IPO Destination
    This paper compares Chinese firms’ IPO performance both in the short- and the long-run on domestic and overseas markets and investigates what factors determine the IPO destinations of Chinese firms. We find China’s domestic IPO market performs well over both time horizons, while some listings in the overseas market perform well in the long run except for small- and mid-cap listings in the US. Analysis based on a capital asset pricing model reveals IPO premiums and short-term returns are less affected by three common risk factors, while longer term returns are mainly driven by market fundamentals. Investigation of the drivers for Chinese firms’ IPO destinations using the binary choice model shows that firm specifics, institutional setups, and market characteristics influence the choice of IPO destinations. The prospect of a high IPO premium and strong trading in IPO shares are substantial drivers for firms to list their shares onshore. On the other hand, indicators of market size and profitability appear to have the highest predictive power for the likelihood of overseas listings, followed by firm’s ownership structure, IPO offering size and IPO underwriting costs. Institutional setups have the least predictive power for overseas listings. These results are in general robust to domestic delisting and IPO suspension events.
  • 详情 对江苏省企业人民币计价出口决定要因的实证研究
       计价货币(Invoice Currency)是国际货币(International Currency)在私人部门作为价值基础的重要职能,其在国际贸易中的结算比率也是判断某种货币国际化程度的重要指标之一。本文根据既有的计价货币选择理论,在对96家江苏省出口企业进行问卷调查的基础上,通过构建Probit个体二分变量计量模型,在价格政策制定这一微观层面上对企业以人民币计价出口的决定要因进行了详细的实证研究。实证分析表明:企业类型为跨国公司关联企业或出口加工型企业、企业出口产品为半成品的,与企业以人民币计价出口呈显著或较为显著的正相关关系;而企业出口地为美国或欧元区国家以及其他发达国家的,则与之呈较为显著的负相关关系。这一结果表明:从促进人民币国际化的角度来看,有必要进一步开放人民币的资本项目的管制,方便跨国公司一类企业进行一定的人民币理财活动,促使其使用人民币计价结算。此外,在货币之间的国际化及国际货币化是否存在有排他性竞争关系明确之前,有必要对其他国家货币的国际化或国际货币化保持警惕。 Invoice Currency is one of the important functions of international currency as a value basis in the private sector。The ratio of one currency as a settlement currency in international trade is also an important index of its degree of internationalization. According to the existing theories of the invoicing currency choice,and on the basis of a questionnaire survey of 96 export enterprises in Jiangsu Province, this paper builds a bivariate probit model with sample selection. From the perspective of price policy making, this article carries out a detailed empirical study on the determinants of the enterprises in RMB-denominated export. The empirical analysis shows that some enterprises have significant positive correlation with RMB-denominated export while others have negative correlation. The formers are enterprises with types of multinational affiliates or export processing enterprises, and with exporting products of the semi-finished products; while the latters are enterprises exporting to the United States, the euro-zone countries or other developed countries. This result suggests that when considering promoting the internationalization of the RMB, the capital control in China should be further released. Therefore, if multinational enterprises could carry out RMB financing, they would promote the use of RMB in trade invoicing and as a settlement currency. In addition, it's not clear whether an exclusive competition exists between the currencies that are in their paths of internationalization and becoming an international currencies. So, it's necessary to remain vigilant on other countries' currency internationalization or the internationalization of the currency.