This paper addresses the dynamic tail risk in price-limited financial markets. We propose a novel censored autoregressive conditional Fr´echet model with a fiexible evolution scheme for the time-varying parameters, which allows deciphering the impact of historical information on tail risk from the viewpoint of different risk preferences. The proposed model can well accommodate many important empirical characteristics, such as thick-tailness, extreme risk clustering, and price limits. The empirical analysis of the Chinese stock market reveals the effectiveness of our model in interpreting and predicting time-varying tail behaviors in price-limited equity markets, providing a new tool for financial risk management.

Macro-prudential policy plays a crucial role in stabilizing the financial system and influencing banks' risk preferences and willingness to take risks. This study examines the influence of macro-prudential policies on bank risk-taking using unbalanced panel data from 126 commercial banks in China between 2010 and 2021. The difference-in-differences model is employed to analyze the data. The empirical findings demonstrate that implementing macro-prudential policies in China effectively enhances bank risk prevention measures. In other words, macro-prudential policy implementation facilitates the digital transformation of banks and subsequently reduces risk-taking behaviors. Moreover, the heterogeneity test reveals that macro-prudential policies have a more significant impact on the risk-taking behavior of commercial banks with higher capital adequacy ratios compared to those with lower ratios. Additionally, commercial banks with strong interbank dependence exhibit more pronounced effects on their risk profiles when subjected to macroprudential policies with stricter capital supervision requirements. Therefore, this study proposes policy recommendations for strengthening bank capital supervision through differentiated approaches, serving as a valuable reference for the regulatory authorities.

Does the ancient farming culture shape the risk-taking behavior of households today? Using a dataset covering over 130,000 households from a Chinese national survey, our study examines the relationship between the culture of rice cultivation and the financial behavior of modern households. We find that households in regions with a higher rate of historical rice cultivation are more likely to invest in the financial market and buy lottery, but less likely to purchase insurance. We also find that the rice area has more households with risk preferences consistent with prospect theory expectations. To account for omitted variable bias, we use average regional rainfall and downstream distance to ancient irrigation systems as instrumental variables for rice cultivation, and our results remain robust. We find that the rice effect cannot be explained by regional economic development, traditional Confucian values, or ethnic diversity. To explore potential mechanisms, we find that households in rice regions are more likely to borrow money from friends and relatives and have interest waived, and historical commercial development has also been influenced by the rice culture.

Utilizing a national online survey we conducted in China, we examine the impact of COVID-19 on individuals’ willingness to take risks, willingness to trust other people, and mental health measured by the Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression (CES-D) scale. Our findings suggest that people who live in the neighborhood with a higher number of confirmed cases became more risk-averse, less likely to trust others, and more depressed. Interestingly, the effects on risk preferences and trust attitudes are statistically significant only for men, and the effects on depression are statistically significant only for women. Furthermore, the impact of COVID-19 on financial decisions, such as buying new commercial insurance and making a risky investment, is also statistically significant only for men, which is consistent with our findings on risk preferences. Attitudes towards cadres and doctors mainly drive the results on trust attitudes. The change in employment status does not drive these effects.