SHIBOR 基准利率 格兰杰因果检验 脉冲响应分析 货币市场压力模拟

  • 详情 关于SHIBOR作为中国基准利率的研究
    内 容 摘 要 基准利率在利率市场化的进程中居于核心地位,而中国的基准利率尚处在培育和发展阶段。本文在总结前人研究的基础上,提出从货币市场基础性和货币政策权威性两个角度进行分析,通过因果关系检验、脉冲响应分析和货币市场压力模拟,对SHIBOR的基准利率地位进行检验。检验结果表明,SHIBOR经过4年多的运行,具备了基准利率的主要特征,SHIBOR作为中国的基准利率更具科学性。基于上述的分析结果,本文提出了进一步加快把SHIBOR培育为基准利率的建议。 ABSTRACT Benchmark interest rate is on a core position in the process of interest rate marketization, while China’s benchmark interest rate is still in cultivating and developing stage. According to conclusions of former research, this article which is focused on base of monetary market and authority of monetary policy, through the ADF test, impulse response analysis and simulation of monetary market pressure, tests SHIBOR’s position of benchmark interest rate. Test results show that after more than four years’ operation, SHIBOR obtains the main characteristics of benchmark interest rate and becomes more reasonable to be benchmark interest rate. Based on the analysis above, this article put forward some proposals to accelerate the cultivation of SHIBOR.