Sensitivity Analysis

  • 详情 How Do Developers Influence the Transaction Costs of China's Prefabricated Housing Development Process? -Investigation Through Bayesian Belief Network Approach
    The implementation of prefabricated housing (PH) has become prevalent in China recently because of its advantages in improving production efficiency and saving energy. However, the benefits of adopting PH cannot always be accrued by the stakeholders because of the arising transaction costs (TCs) in the projects’ development process. This study investigates the strategies for developers to make rational choices for minimizing the TCs of the PH project considering their own attributes and external constraints. A Bayesian Belief Network model was applied as the analytical method, based on the surveys in China. The single sensitive analysis indicated that developers influence the TCs of PH through the three most impactful factors: Prefabrication rate, PH experience, and Contract payment method. Furthermore, combined strategies were recommended for developers in various situations based on the multiple sensitivity analysis. Developers facing high prefabrication rate challenges are suggested to reduce the risks by procuring high-qualified general contractors and adopting unit-price contracts type. For developers with limited PH experience, adopting the Engineering-Procurement-Construction procurement method is the most efficient in reducing their TCs in the context of China’s PH market. This study contributes to the current body of knowledge concerning the effect of traders’ attributes and choices on TCs, expanding the application of TCs theory and fulfilling the study on the determinants of TCs in construction management.
  • 详情 Analysis of Production Decision-Making Evolution of Steel Enterprises Under Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism
    This work explored the changes in production decision-making trends of Chinese steel enterprises under the influence of the carbon border adjustment mechanism. First, using evolutionary game theory, the interactive mechanism of complex production strategies among steel enterprises considering the carbon border adjustment mechanism was studied, including the impact of government subsidy coefficients, additional profits and carbon tax prices on enterprise decisionmaking.Second, the influence of key parameters on the dynamic evolutionary process was analysed. On this basis, the empirical simulation method was used to verify the game model and the main conclusions. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of the selected parameters was determined using Matlab software. The results showed that additional profits from green investment, government subsidy coefficients, input-output values and carbon tax prices had a higher impact on the evolution of enterprise production strategies. The results of this study provide a decision-making basis for the selection of future production methods for steel enterprises.
  • 详情 The Impact of Green Finance on Carbon Emission Efficiency
    As the problem of global climate change becomes more severe, countries have proposed the goals of carbon capping and carbon neutrality. Green finance is an essential capacity support for achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, and it can guide and stimulate social capital to invest in low-carbon industries and initiatives via marketbased mechanisms. Based on the panel data of Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2006 to 2020, this paper empirically examines the impact of green finance on carbon emission efficiency using a two-way fixed-effects model, conducts a regional heterogeneity analysis, and examines the threshold effect of economic development level and the mediating role of regional innovation. The results indicate that, first, green finance contributes significantly to the improvement of carbon emission efficiency, and second, the level of regional economic development has a double threshold effect on the contribution of green finance to the improvement of carbon emission efficiency. Third, regional innovation is an important green finance channel for influencing carbon emission efficacy. The sensitivity of carbon emission efficiency to the green finance index demonstrates an inverted U-shaped trend. Fifth, the importance of green finance sub-dimensions in relation to carbon emission efficacy is as follows: green support, green credit, green insurance, green investment, green equity, green bond, and green fund. These findings provide theoretical support for green finance's role in promoting co-carbon efficiency and are valuable for policy formulation.
  • 详情 实物期权在企业R&D 项目投资决策中的应用研究
    本文首先对过去几十年来实物期权方法应用研究进展进行了回顾和总结,并指出了目前在实物期权方法应用中经常出现的一些模糊概念和误用的问题。通过一些实例的分析和讨论,对现有的一些研究结论提出了质疑,指出:由于问题构模及参数定义上的差异,一些在金融期权中成立的定理,如期权价值随着波动率增加、无风险利率增大或期权期限延长时,是递增的这一规律对于实物期权的而言可能会失效。并以实物期权在企业R&D 投资项目中为例,对这一问题以及与之相关的实物期权构模和参数选择等问题进行了详细深入的讨论和分析。文章还在对Penning and Lint(1997)及Agliardi Elettra(2003)等人的结果扩展的基础上,给出了当波动率、无风险利率和期权持有成本为时变函数的条件下四种复合期权的解析解,并利用数值计算结果证实了作者的观点。 Abstract: This study first reviews the literature of real options research in the past decades, and points out the problem of obscure concepts and misuse of real option frequently appeared in the application fields. By analyzing and discussing some cases, the author put forward doubt on some research results, and indicate that because of the discrepancy of modeling and parameter definition, some theorems which true for financial options, such as the value of options will increase when the volatility and risk-free rate increase or expiration date suspension, will not true for the real options. Using the application of real options in firm’s R&D project as an example, the paper analyses and discusses the problem in detail how to applying real options from aspects of modeling, parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis correctly, etc. By extending the results of Penning and Lint (1997) as well as Agliardi Elettra (2003), a close-form solution for a generalized of the Geske formula is derived for four types compound real options: call on call, call on put, put on call, put on put in the case of time-dependent volatility and risk-free rate and option-holding cost. The author’s findings are proven by numerical results in the last.