Spillover

  • 详情 Regulatory Shocks as Revealing Devices: Evidence from Smoking Bans and Corporate Bonds
    I study whether workplace smoking bans change how bond investors assess firm risk. Using staggered state adoption across U.S.\ states from 2002 to 2012 and a heterogeneity-robust difference-in-differences design, I find that smoking bans increase six-month cumulative abnormal bond returns by about 90 basis points. The average effect is only the starting point: the response is much larger for speculative-grade issuers and firms with low interest coverage, indicating that investors reprice the policy where downside operating risk matters most for debt values. Mechanism tests point most clearly to improved operating performance and lower worker turnover, while broader financial-constraint, liquidity, and duration channels remain close to zero. Alternative estimators, placebo diagnostics, and geographic spillover checks all support the interpretation that workplace smoking bans trigger targeted credit-risk reassessment rather than a generic regional shock. My findings connect public-health regulation to capital-market outcomes and show how non-financial policy shocks can reveal economically meaningful information about corporate credit risk.
  • 详情 Global turbulence drivers of emerging market volatility spillovers across risk cycles
    This study examines how global turbulence factors shape volatility spillovers among emerging stock markets through the lens of risk cycles. We find that emerging market connectedness exhibits clear regime heterogeneity across risk cycles, while also preserving several persistent structural patterns. Specifically, trade policy uncertainty (TPU) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) serve the dominant drivers during risk outbreak and risk accumulation periods, respectively. Meanwhile, sustainability uncertainty (ESGUI) consistently plays a leading driver role in both regimes, while physical climate risk plays a comparatively limited role. Furthermore, the effects of these core turbulence factors are nonlinear and threshold-dependent, highlighting the importance of accounting for risk cycle heterogeneity and nonlinear dynamics when assessing emerging market risk transmission.
  • 详情 The Impact of Biodiversity Risk on US Agricultural Futures Markets
    This paper examines biodiversity risk transmission to US agricultural futures markets. We find: (1) all futures exhibit moderate-to-high biodiversity sensitivity, with coffee showing highest response through transparent price transmission mechanisms; (2) wavelet analysis reveals time-frequency heterogeneity, where tropical crops maintain strong long-term synchronization with biodiversity risk, intensified during COVID-19; (3) frequency-dependent asymmetric correlations emerge, with grains shifting from positive long-cycle to negative short-cycle correlations; (4) systemic spillover analysis indicates moderate interdependence, with soybeans as primary risk receiver and sugar as dominant transmitter, revealing differentiated transmission roles.
  • 详情 The Real Effects of Bankruptcy Reform
    We construct the most comprehensive bankruptcy database of Chinese firms to date and document significant real effects arising from the establishment of specialized bankruptcy courts. Specifically, the recovery rate for unsecured creditors increases by 38.6 percentage points after the reform. This improvement is not driven by shorter case durations or lower direct bankruptcy costs, as intuition might suggest. Instead, it results primarily from greater efficiency in the discovery and disposal of assets during bankruptcy proceedings. The reform also increases the likelihood of reorganization and promotes capital infusion in such cases. Higher recovery rates generate broader spillovers: reductions in non-performing loans, expansion of unsecured lending by local banks, relaxation of firms’ financial constraints, shifts in capital structure and investment, and greater public willingness to file for bankruptcy when distressed.
  • 详情 The Impact of Co-Movements in International Commodity Idiosyncratic Volatility on China's Financial Market Risk
    This study applies the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM), TVPVAR-DY framework, and pattern causality to investigate spillover effect from international commodity idiosyncratic volatility co-movements to China's financial market risk, as well as the impact of a series of macroeconomic factors on such spillover effect. The empirical results indicate that the idiosyncratic volatility co-movements of energy, industrial metals, precious metals, soft commodities, and agricultural products all have significant spillover effects on China's financial market risk. The influence of commodity idiosyncratic co-movements on China’s financial market risk is relatively stable under normal economic conditions but intensifies significantly during periods of deteriorating economic fundamentals. Macroeconomic factors such as international capital flows, investor sentiment, geopolitical risks, economic conditions, and international freight rates predominantly exhibit a positive causal effect on the dynamic spillover effect.
  • 详情 Technological Momentum in China: Large Language Model Meets Simple Classifications
    This study applies large language models (LLMs) to measure technological links and examines its predictive power in the Chinese stock market. Using the BAAI General Embedding (BGE) model, we extract semantic information from patent textual data to construct the technological momentum measure. As a comparison, the measure based on traditional International Patent Classification (IPC) is also considered. Empirical analysis shows that both measures significantly predict stock returns and they capture complementary dimensions of technological links. Further investigation through stratified analysis reveals the critical role of investor inattention in explaining their differential performance: in stocks with low investor inattention, IPC-based measure loses its predictive power while BGE-based measure remains significant, indicating that straightforward information is fully priced in while complex semantic relationships require greater cognitive processing; in stocks with high investor inattention, both measures exhibit predictability, with BGE-based measure showing stronger effects. These findings support behavioral finance theories suggesting that complex information diffuses more slowly in markets, especially under significant cognitive constraints, and demonstrate LLMs’ advantage in uncovering subtle technological connections that traditional methods overlook.
  • 详情 Social Networks in Motion: High-Speed Rail and Market Reactions to Earnings News
    We examine how social networks shaped by high-speed rail connections influence investor attention and market reactions to earnings announcements in China. Firms in high-centrality cities exhibit stronger immediate and subsequent responses in investor attention, stock price, and trading volume to earnings news. Further analysis shows that earnings-induced local attention predicts future attention spillovers to intercity investors, amplifying both price and volume reactions after announcements. Overall, these findings indicate that high-speed rail networks foster investor social networks that facilitate the dissemination of firm news and help explain predictable patterns in investor behavior and market pricing.
  • 详情 Social Distrust and Household Savings: Evidence from China
    This paper examines the impact of social distrust on household saving in China using a microsample from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). We find that social distrust leads to an increase in savings within households, in which households not living alone, with higher levels of education and urban households are more affected. We also find that social distrust affects household savings through raising risk expectations, reducing credit availability and amplifying risk spillovers from real estate markets.
  • 详情 Spillover Effects of Auditing Cross-Listed Clients on Domestic Audit Quality: Organizational Learning and Organizational Disruption
    We examine how organizational learning and organizational disruption jointly arise when Chinese audit firms have U.S. cross-listed clients and which effect dominates. Among public companies listed only in China, we define the treatment group as companies audited by Chinese audit firms serving at least one U.S. client, similar companies audited by firms without U.S. clients as the control group. Survey evidence indicates strong incentives and opportunities to learn from U.S. engagements and frequent learning activities in treatment audit firms. The archival evidence however shows that their domestic audit quality declines relative to the control group. The effect is more pronounced when U.S. clients demand more audit resources, when domestic clients are more sensitive to limited audit attention, and when U.S. and domestic clients are more similar. Overall, our findings indicate a negative externality of U.S. cross-listing audit when resource constraints hinder an effective firm-wide learning.
  • 详情 The Influence of ESG Responsibility Performance on Enterprises’ Export Performance and its Mechanism
    Under the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, taking environment, social responsibility, and corporate governance (ESG) as the important investment factor has become an action guide and standard for capital market participants. The practice of the ESG concept is not only a new way for enterprises to form new asset advantages and realize green and low-carbon transformation, but also important access for promoting high-quality and sustainable development. Based on Chinese-listed companies within the period of 2009 to 2015, we investigate the impact of ESG responsibility performance on export performance as well as its mechanism. We theorize and find out show that ESG responsibility performance can significantly and stably promote enterprises’ export performance. Mechanism analysis shows that ESG can improve export performance by reducing financing costs and easing financing constraints, and the green technology innovation effect is also an important channel for ESG to affect export performance. Therefore, government should strengthen the supervision and incentive of ESG performance, encourage enterprises to improve their environmental, social and governance performance in order to adapt to the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality and promote the high-quality development of export trade. Future research may consider combining ESG accountability with other factors such as supply chain management, intermediate imports, and transnational spillovers to more fully understand its impact on export performance, so as to create more value for society.