Spillovers

  • 详情 Risk Spillovers between Industries - New Evidence from Two Periods of High and Low Volatility
    This paper develops a network to analyze inter-industry risk spillovers during high and low volatility periods. Our findings indicate that China's Industrials and Consumer Discretionary exhibit the greatest levels of spillovers in both high and low volatility states. Notably, our results demonstrate the "event-driven" character of structural changes to the network during periods of pronounced risk events. At the same time, the economic and financial network exhibits clear "small world" characteristics. Additionally, in the high volatility stage, the inter-industry risk contagion network becomes more complex, featuring greater connectivity and direct contagion paths. Furthermore, concerning the spillover connection between finance and the real sector, the real economy serves as a net exporter of risk. The study's findings can assist government agencies in preventing risk contagion between the financial market and the real economy. The empirical evidence and policy lessons provide valuable insights for effective risk management.
  • 详情 The Political Cycle and Access to Bank Loan in China
    This paper provides evidence on the cost of political interference on banks with Chinese Private Enterprise Survey data between 2002 and 2012. Using regional political turnovers as a proxy for political influence, we show that political motivations for future promotions distort the bank lending decisions and crowd out lending to private firms. Besides, firms with business connections are more sensitive to turnover, while political connections are not significantly affected. These lending distortions are more considerable where competition for future promotion is more intense and where incumbents have more influence over banks. Moreover, the effect is especially pronounced for small firms. As a result of reduced bank credit, firms’ total credit availability decreases and they have to cut investments. Overall, our results suggest that preferential lending to politically important sectors has negative spillovers and can lead to costly crowding-out of private sectors.
  • 详情 Firm Heterogeneity and Imperfect Competition in Global Production Networks
    We study the role of firm heterogeneity and imperfect competition for global production networks and the gains from trade. We develop a quantifiable trade model with two-sided firm heterogeneity, matching frictions, and oligopolistic competition upstream. More productive buyers endogenously match with more suppliers, thereby inducing tougher competition among them to enjoy lower input costs and superior performance. Transaction-level customs data confirms that downstream French and Chilean firms import higher values and quantities at lower prices as upstream Chinese markets become more competitive over time, with stronger responses by larger firms. Moreover, suppliers charge more diversified buyers lower mark-ups. Counterfactual analysis indicates that entry upstream benefits high-productivity buyers, while lower matching or trade costs benefit all buyers, with the biggest boost to mid-productivity buyers. All three shocks generate sizeable welfare gains, especially under package reforms. Global production networks thus mediate bigger effects and cross-border spillovers from industrial and trade policies.
  • 详情 How Does Tail Risk Spill Over between Chinese and the Us Stock Markets? An Empirical Study Based on Multilayer Network
    As the world’s two largest economies, China and the US are currently experiencing political and economic friction. This conflict brings high uncertainty to financial markets. Assessing risk spillover effects in a sector level will help us to characterize international risk contagions. We construct a multilayer network to examine tail risk spillovers between China and the US and find that (1) the value of total connectedness rises amidst tensions but declines during reconciliations; (2) interlayer spillovers mainly manifest as extreme pulses instead of steady outflows, which implies a significant increase in the frequency and magnitude of interlayer spillovers requires vigilant monitoring; and (3) compared with the in-strength, the out-strength is more concentrated, which represents that some sectors may play the role of major interlayer transmitter in tail risk spillovers. Monitoring interlayer spillovers helps policymakers and investors respond to emerging systemic threats.
  • 详情 Interbank borrowing and bank liquidity risk
    To avoid illiquidity spillovers and basis risk in swaps, interbank lenders are especially cautious about whether interbank borrowers can meet their claims. We examine whether the incentive of interbank lenders to penalize risky borrowers can reduce borrowers' liquidity risk taking. We find that interbank borrowers, especially small and medium banks, manage their liquidity risks more prudently than their counterparts. This phenomenon is especially significant for borrowers with high information asymmetry, low liquidity buffers, and high funding gaps. Our results suggest that interbank exposure reduces the asset, funding, and off‐balance‐sheet liquidity risks of small and medium borrowing banks, and can therefore supplement regulatory liquidity requirements, which target only the largest banks.
  • 详情 Housing Speculation and Entrepreneurship
    We document a speculation channel through which house market booms negatively affect entrepreneurship. To address endogeneity concerns, we exploit plausibly exogenous variation in house prices generated by staggered and unintended policy spillovers in China. We find house market speculation triggered by house booms crowds out entrepreneurship. Reduced labor supply, reduced capital supply, and heightened entry costs do not appear to explain our main findings. The negative effect exhibits in the OECD countries as well. Our paper complements the well-documented collateral channel by offering novel evidence on a previously under-explored adverse consequence of house market booms – their hindrance to entrepreneurship.
  • 详情 Learning by Investing: Entrepreneurial Spillovers from Venture Capital
    This paper studies how investing in venture capital (VC) affects the entrepreneurial outcomes of individual limited partners (LPs). Using comprehensive administrative data on entrepreneurial activities and VC fundraising and investments in China, we first document that individual LPs, on average, contribute about 50% of the capital of each fund in which they participate, and over 50% of them are entrepreneurs. We then exploit an identification strategy by comparing the entrepreneurial outcomes of individual LPs in funds that eventually launched with those in funds that failed to launch. The fraction of committed capital from corporate LPs in industries that subsequently encounter poor returns is used as an instrument for funds' launch failures. We find that after investing in a successfully launched VC fund, individual LPs create significantly more ventures than do LPs in funds which failed to launch. These new ventures tend to be high-tech firms and file more patents than do the LPs' prior ventures. We find evidence consistent with venture investments being a channel through which individual LPs learn.
  • 详情 Diamond Cuts Diamond: News Co-mention Momentum Spillover Prevails in China
    We conduct a comprehensive study on momentum spillovers in the Chinese stock market using varioustypes of economic linkages. We find that the news co-mention momentum spillover is signiffcantly strongercompared to other forms of momentum spillovers. Using spanning tests and Fama-MacBeth regressions,we further show that the news co-mention momentum spillover uniffes all different forms of momentum spillover effects in the Chinese stock market. Notably, the analyst co-coverage momentum spillover effect, which is the dominant species in the US stock market, is subsumed by the news co-mention momentum spillover effect in the Chinese stock market. We further explore the differences in the information content of links implied by news co-mentioning and other proxies. We suggest that the dominance of news co-mention momentum spillover over others can be attributed to two primary factors: comprehensive information and prompt updates.
  • 详情 Spillover Effects Within Supply Chains: Evidence From Chinese-Listed Firms
    There is increasing attention on information transfers along supply chain partners for firm (extreme) events. This growing literature finds spillover effects following certain types of firm events. Using data from credit rating actions of Chineselisted firms over the period between March 2007 and May 2020, we examine the spillover effects of supply chains by focusing on the market reactions of event firms to the action announcements. We find strong evidence of spillover effects driven by the market reactions of event firms, which are enhanced through information diffusion channels as supply chain partners receive more investor attention. Moreover, the effects are stronger when event firms’ market reactions are negative, event firms are nonstated-owned, the industry concentration of event firms is higher, or the suppliercustomer business relationship is closer. Overall, these findings highlight the role of investor attention in addition to network characteristics in supply chain spillovers.
  • 详情 Common Ownership and Knowledge Spillovers in Developing Countries: Evidence from Chinese Listed Firms
    Common institutional ownership can enhance knowledge spillovers by increasing portfolio firms’ awareness about each other’s innovation. By investigating listed electronic hardware firms in China for 2000-2016, we find that when common ownership by mutual funds is higher between a firm pair, it is more likely that these two firms cite each other’s patents. To confirm causality, we show that even the exogenous increase in firms’ common ownership following their inclusion into the stock index still positively influences the citing likelihood. We also find that such citations are taken place in a timely manner. Additionally, this positive effect is robust when the effects of overlapping board members and common ownership by other types of institutional investors are controlled for. This effect is more pronounced among nonneighboring firms, when non-neighboring firms are close to their common owners, when common owners hold shares longer, and when firms’ executives have lower incentive to communicate (i.e., SOEs). Last, we find that common ownership by mutual funds also enhances knowledge spillovers through third-party patents. This paper deepens the understanding of knowledge spillovers among firms in developing countries.