State

  • 详情 Information Source Diversity and Analyst Forecast Bias
    This study investigates the impact of analysts' information source diversity on forecast bias and investment returns. We combine the GPT-4o model and text similarity, to extract the names of information sources from the text of analyst in-depth reports. Using 349,200 sources, we calculate information diversity scores based on the variety of data sources to measure analysts’ ability of selecting relevant information. The findings reveal that higher information diversity significantly reduces forecast bias and enhances portfolio returns. The effect is particularly pronounced for large companies, state-owned enterprises, those with low analyst coverage, low firm-specific experience, and reports with positive forecast revisions. Institutional investors recognize the value of this skill, while retail investors remain largely unaware, which contributes to financial inequality. This study highlights the critical role of information diversity in analyst performance.
  • 详情 Partnership as Assurance: Regulatory Risk and State–Business Equity Ties in China
    Recent studies highlight the resurgence of state capitalism, with the state increasingly acting as equity investors in private firms. Why do state--business equity ties, including partial and indirect state ownership in private firms, proliferate in weakly institutionalized contexts like China? While conventional wisdom emphasizes state-driven explanations based on static evidence, I argue that regulatory risk reshapes business preferences, prompting firms to seek state investors and expanding state--business equity ties. These ties facilitate information exchange and signal political endorsement under regulatory scrutiny. Focusing on China's crackdown on the Internet and IT sectors, difference-in-differences analyses of all investments from 2016 to 2022 reveal a rise in state--business equity ties post-crackdown. In-depth interviews with investors along with quantitative analysis, demonstrate that shifts in business preferences drive this change. This study shows the resurgence of state capitalism is driven not only by the state but also by businesses in response to regulatory risks.
  • 详情 Minority Shareholder Voting Power and Labor Investment Efficiency: Natural Experimental Evidence from China
    We examine the effect of minority shareholder voting rights on labor investment efficiency using a sample of Chinese firms. Taking advantage of the difference-in-difference setting, our study reveals that the expansion of minority shareholder voting rights has a detrimental effect on labor investment efficiency. Through analysis of holding period and a managerial shortsightedness index based on textual analysis, we find that this outcome can be attributed to the fact that minority shareholders typically prioritize short-term gains over long-term corporate growth. Moreover, the impact of voting power is more pronounced in determining the investment efficiency of rank-andfileemployees. Our results are more significant for firms that face severe financial constraints, are non-state-owned enterprises, exhibit lower levels of internal control, possess fewer female managers, demonstrate lower human capital quality and higher labor intensity. Taken together, our paper suggests that minority shareholders could be myopia in making labor decisions.
  • 详情 Risk Spillovers between Industries - New Evidence from Two Periods of High and Low Volatility
    This paper develops a network to analyze inter-industry risk spillovers during high and low volatility periods. Our findings indicate that China's Industrials and Consumer Discretionary exhibit the greatest levels of spillovers in both high and low volatility states. Notably, our results demonstrate the "event-driven" character of structural changes to the network during periods of pronounced risk events. At the same time, the economic and financial network exhibits clear "small world" characteristics. Additionally, in the high volatility stage, the inter-industry risk contagion network becomes more complex, featuring greater connectivity and direct contagion paths. Furthermore, concerning the spillover connection between finance and the real sector, the real economy serves as a net exporter of risk. The study's findings can assist government agencies in preventing risk contagion between the financial market and the real economy. The empirical evidence and policy lessons provide valuable insights for effective risk management.
  • 详情 Firm Engagement in Belt and Road Initiative and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns: Evidence from China
    We construct firm-level indicators to capture the engagement in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI, henceforth) via textual analysis. We find that higher firm engagement in BRI predicts higher stock returns in the subsequent 12 months. The top 10% high-BRI firms have 12.42% higher annual returns than bottom 10% low-BRI firms in China A-Share market. Additionally, two fundamental channels of increased earnings and reduced liabilities explain the higher expected returns of high-BRI firms. Furthermore, we reveal that the phenomenon is more pronounced among non-state-owned enterprises. For large-cap firms, BR Report is a more effective indicator for predicting future stock returns, while BR Beta performs better for small-cap firms. These findings contribute to the measurement of firm engagement in BRI and its impact on the stock market.
  • 详情 ESG Performance, Employee Income and Pay Gap: Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies
    Identifying and addressing the factors influencing the within-firm pay gaps has become a pressing issue amidst the widening global income inequality. This study investigates the impact of corporate ESG ratings on employee income and pay gaps using data from Chinese-listed companies between 2017 and 2021. The results suggest that ESG ratings significantly increase employee income. Further research indicates that ESG ratings exacerbate the within-firm pay gaps and income inequality due to the varying bargaining power among employees. This effect is particularly pronounced in non-state-owned and large-scale companies. This is also true for all kinds of companies in traditional and highly competitive industries. However, reducing agency costs and improving information transparency can help vulnerable employees with weaker bargaining power in income distribution to narrow their pay gaps. The research findings offer important insights to promote fair income distribution within companies and address global income inequality.
  • 详情 Examining Institutional Investor Preferences: The Influence of ESG Ratings on Stock Holding in China's Stock Market
    This study explores the proclivity of institutional investors in China towards highESG stocks amidst the growth of ESG investment funds. Using A-share data from 2015-2022 and a Tobit model analysis, it is found that these investors indeed favor such stocks, particularly under extensive analyst coverage and in non-state-owned firms. However, rating discrepancies can impact this preference. The attraction lies in reduced operational risks and improved net profits. Notably, independent investors show a stronger ESG preference, especially within high-pollution industries. Thus, fostering ESG investment among institutional investors can improve resource allocation in China's capital market, favoring eco-friendly companies.
  • 详情 Are Non-Soes Less Tax Avoidance When the Government is a Minority Shareholder in China?
    This study attempts to shed new light on how the state as a minority shareholder can affect the tax planning of non-state-owned enterprises(non-SOEs). We examine publicly traded non-SOEs in China and find that non-SOEs are more tax avoidance when the government is a minority shareholder, indicating that minority state ownership has played a "shelter effect" on tax avoidance of non-SOEs. Further analysis shows that the sheltering effect of minority state ownership is more prominent for firms located in areas with more social burden, worse tax enforcement and firms with stronger incentive to avoid taxes. Furthermore, non-SOEs with minority state ownership increase excessive capital expenditure and employ redundant employees, but still have higher firm value. Overall, our findings suggest the state as a minority shareholder shapes the tax-planning activities of non-SOEs in a “two-way favor exchange” manner and it is beneficial for non-SOEs to maintain a close relationship with the government in China where the government controls key resources.
  • 详情 Are Trend Factor in China? Evidence from Investment Horizon Information
    This paper improves the expected return variable and the corresponding trend factor documented by Han, Zhou, and Zhu (2016) and reveals the incremental predictability of this novel expected return measure on stock returns in the Chinese stock market. Portfolio analyses and firm-level cross-sectional regressions indicate a significantly positive relation between the improved expected return and future returns. These results are robust to the short-, intermediate-, and long-term price trends and other derived expected returns. Our improved trend factor also outperforms all trend factors constructed by other expected returns. Additionally, we observe that lottery demand, capital states, return synchronicity, investor sentiment and information uncertainty can help explain the superior performance of the improved expected return measure in the Chinese stock market.
  • 详情 ESG in the Digital Age: Unraveling the Impact of Strategic Digital Orientation
    As digital technologies proliferate, firms increasingly leverage digital transformation strategically, necessitating new orientations attuned to digital technological change. This study investigates how digital orientation (DORI)- the philosophy of harnessing digital technology scope, digital capabilities, digital ecosystem coordination, and digital architecture configuration for competitive advantage – influences firms’ environmental, social, and governance performance (ESG_per). Analysis of Chinese A-share firms from 2010-2019 reveals DORI is associated with superior ESG_per, operating through the mediating mechanism of enhanced digital finance (DIFIN) as a fund-providing facilitator for sustainability initiatives. Additional analysis uncovers important heterogeneities – private firms, centrally owned state-owned enterprises, politically connected, and emerging companies exhibit the strongest DORI - ESG_per linkages. Prominently, the study findings are validated through a battery of robustness tests, including instrumental variable methods, and propensity score matching. Overall, the results underscore the need for firms to purposefully develop multifaceted digital orientation and furnishes novel theoretical insights and practical implications regarding DORI’s role in improving ESG_per.