Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are widely regarded as a critical instrument for industrial consolidation and capacity rationalization. Utilizing a dataset of China’s major national and regional steel enterprises from 1998 to 2013, this study empirically evaluates the efficacy of M&A in resolving over1capacity. We document a striking heterogeneity in outcomes: while M&A generally alleviates overcapacity, this effect is exclusively driven by inter-provincial transactions; intra-provincial mergers show no significant impact. Mechanism analysis reveals that inter-provincial M&A facilitates the transfer of control rights, effectively insulating firms from local government intervention. In contrast, intra-provincial mergers are undermined by local intervention through mechanisms of "internal control" and "external defense." Furthermore, despite the reduction in capacity, we find that inter-provincial mergers suffer from incomplete post-merger integration. There is a persistent lack of governance coordination, and no convergence in capacity management performance is observed between the merging entities over time. These findings offer critical policy implications for mitigating local protectionism and enhancing integration efficiency to resolve industrial overcapacity.

This work explored the changes in production decision-making trends of Chinese steel enterprises under the influence of the carbon border adjustment mechanism. First, using evolutionary game theory, the interactive mechanism of complex production strategies among steel enterprises considering the carbon border adjustment mechanism was studied, including the impact of government subsidy coefficients, additional profits and carbon tax prices on enterprise decisionmaking.Second, the influence of key parameters on the dynamic evolutionary process was analysed. On this basis, the empirical simulation method was used to verify the game model and the main conclusions. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of the selected parameters was determined using Matlab software. The results showed that additional profits from green investment, government subsidy coefficients, input-output values and carbon tax prices had a higher impact on the evolution of enterprise production strategies. The results of this study provide a decision-making basis for the selection of future production methods for steel enterprises.