This paper examines biodiversity risk transmission to US agricultural futures markets. We find: (1) all futures exhibit moderate-to-high biodiversity sensitivity, with coffee showing highest response through transparent price transmission mechanisms; (2) wavelet analysis reveals time-frequency heterogeneity, where tropical crops maintain strong long-term synchronization with biodiversity risk, intensified during COVID-19; (3) frequency-dependent asymmetric correlations emerge, with grains shifting from positive long-cycle to negative short-cycle correlations; (4) systemic spillover analysis indicates moderate interdependence, with soybeans as primary risk receiver and sugar as dominant transmitter, revealing differentiated transmission roles.

This study investigates the impact of Total Factor Productivity(TFP) growth in China's high-tech industry on household consumption, examining the distinct roles of labor and capital factor productivity from the perspective of biased technological progress. We innovatively construct a sequential proportional NDDF-Luenberger index. This index not only provides a theoretically consistent measure of TFP but also enables its precise decomposition into labor factor productivity and capital factor productivity, allowing for the quantitative identification of the degree and direction of technological bias. Our analysis yields three key findings. First, China's high-tech industry TFP evolved through a three-phase pattern of "surge–retreat–recovery," characterized by persistent capital-biased technological progress. Second, at the national level, improvements in overall TFP, labor factor productivity, and capital factor productivity all significantly promote household consumption, validating the theoretical pathway where supply-side efficiency gains stimulate demand. Third, significant regional heterogeneity exists: the Eastern region exhibits a "capital-led" growth pattern with weaker consumption effects from labor productivity; the Central and Western regions show "factor synergy," where both productivities contribute to consumption; whereas the Northeastern region suffers from a blocked transmission mechanism, where technological progress fails to significantly boost local consumption due to insufficient integration with the regional economy. By integrating supply-side TFP with demand-side consumption through the lens of biased technological progress, this research provides critical insights for fostering a virtuous cycle between innovation and domestic demand, offering valuable implications for industrial and regional policy design aimed at sustainable and inclusive growth.

This paper aims to investigate the transmission mechanism through which trade policy uncertainty (TPU) impacts bank risk-taking via firms’ capital market performance. The research reveals that TPU significantly affects firms’ capital market performance, leading to reduced stock liquidity, increased stock price crash risk, decreased stock price synchronicity, and lower stock returns. These effects are transmitted to bank risk-taking, resulting in an overall increase in banks’ passive risk-taking and a decrease in their willingness to undertake active risk-taking. Furthermore, we discover that the impact of TPU on bank risk-taking varies across different categories of firms, revealing heterogeneity in this transmission process. This study uncovers the critical mechanism through which TPU propagates in financial markets, offering important theoretical insights and policy implications for understanding and managing financial risk.

We examine the interest rate pass-through in Hong Kong (HK) and Macao to see if the monetary policy transmission mechanism has been impaired since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Our results show that, in the post-GFC period, both the long-run and short-run interest rate pass-through from policy rates to prime rates have disappeared in Macao and weakened significantly in HK. The long-term relationship between deposit rates and policy rates no longer exists in either market while the short-term relationship has been reduced significantly. The results indicate that the effectiveness of the monetary policy in HK and Macao has been seriously undermined after the GFC and alternative monetary policy tools were needed.

China's local government debt financing grows rapidly featuring surging chengtou bond issuance and risk exposure since the global financial crisis in 2008. The accumulation of local government debt poses systemic risks to China's fiscal and financial systems. Using weekly data from 2009 to 2014, this paper studies the joint dynamics and risk transmission mechanism between chengtou bond spreads and treasury yields under the framework of the extended no-arbitrage Nelson-Seigel term structure model, which guarantees the no-arbitrage relationship between treasury yields of different maturities. The results show that the chengtou bonds indeed exhibit considerable local risks and can lead to systemic risk of the treasury bonds, such that the treasury yields have significant component of risk premium due to chengtou risk. On the other hand, as the safest asset in China at present, the treasury yields with short-to-medium maturities decrease as a result of the “fly-to-safety" effect when the chengtou risk increases. Meanwhile, the dynamics of chengtou bond spreads reflect the market-oriented risk pricing by investors on credit and liquidity risks under limitations of the government implicit guarantee. Under this condition, it is the right timing to reasonably standardize and institutionalize the local government bond market with transparent market mechanism.

In this paper, we examine the spillover effect of US monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) on China's real economic activities, and study the international transmission mechanisms of MPU shock from the view of financial integration, on both aggregate and firm level. Based on the macro level evidences, we find that an increase in US MPU will depress not only domestic output but also the real economic activities in China. The international spillover effect of US MPU shock will be intensified when international financial markets get more integrated. The firm level evidence based on Chinese listed firms further corroborate the deflationary effect of US MPU shock. Theoretically, we build a two-country New Keynesian DSGE model featuring monetary uncertainty shocks to confirm the empirical evidences.

The paper analyses monetary policy transmission mechanism in Nigeria. Vector auto-regression model is estimated for the pre-reform and post-reform periods. Variance decompositions and impulse response functions are examined to see whether there are any changes observed in the monetary transmission mechanism after the reforms. Different systems are estimated in each period using alternate variables as measures of monetary policy shocks. When compared results from the two estimation periods, we noted that both the responsiveness of prices and output to policy shocks and the magnitude of their forecast error variance decompositions, explained by these variables, have increased since the reforms. There is evidence of the bank-lending channel both before and after the reforms. Of the mechanisms estimated, the exchange rate and lending mechanisms seem to be the most important mechanisms for transmission of policy shocks to both prices and output during the post-reform period.