Valuation

  • 详情 Modeling the Implied Volatility Smirk in China: Do Non-Affine Two-Factor Stochastic Volatility Models Work?
    In this paper, we investigate alternative one-factor and two-factor continuous-time models with both affine and non-affine variance dynamics for the Chinese options market. Through extensive empirical analysis of the option panel fit and diagnostics, we find that it is necessary to include both the non-affine feature and the multi-factor structure. For performance evaluation, we examine various measures from both aggregate and dynamic perspectives. Our results are statistically significant.
  • 详情 Sdg Performance and Stock Returns: Fresh Insights from China
    Utilizing microevaluation data on the extent to which firms advance the achievement of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provided by Robeco, this paper examines the influence of corporate sustainability on stock price performance and its underlying economic mechanisms. The empirical results suggest that firms’ sustainability has a significant negative effect on excess returns, particularly the contribution of firms to the social dimension of sustainability. Firms’ SDG performance can alleviate financing constraints and reduce financial risk, but it does not significantly enhance financial performance, leading to market capital outflows from high SDG-performing firms, especially from individual investors. Furthermore, our results suggest that high SDG-performing firms are undervalued and do not increase the information content in their stock prices, which may be the main reason for the negative effect of SDG performance. We also conduct a series of heterogeneity tests, which show that firms from regions with high environmental regulatory intensity and less economic development, as well as heavily polluting firms and firms with poorer information environments, experience greater negative effects. These findings have implications for investors to properly understand corporate sustainability and for regulators to promote the development of a low-carbon economy.
  • 详情 Gambling Preference and IPO Premium
    This paper investigates the gambling preference of Chinese investors in the convertible bond (CB) market through a natural experiment—the 2018 amendment of Article 142 of the Company Law. Utilizing CB issuance data from 2016 to 2023, we employ a cohort difference-in-difference approach and find a 4% to 7% increase in IPO premiums for high-repurchase-expectation CBs across various measures. This significant increase indicates that the legal revision reshapes investors’ expectation and adjusts their valuation of CBs. Furthermore, the event-study analysis reveals the escalating impact of legal revision, driven by the herding behavior of gambling investors.
  • 详情 相对估值法在互联网企业价值评估中的应用——以阿里巴巴为例
    本文基于互联网企业价值评估的背景,重点探讨一种常用估值方法——相对估值法(Relative Valuation),并以阿里巴巴集团(Alibaba)为实证对象首先,文章回顾了互联网企业估值的特殊性与挑战;其次,介绍了相对估值法的理论基础、常用指标(如市盈率P/E、市净率P/B、市销率P/S、EV/EBITDA 等)及其优缺点;再次,从互联网企业特征出发,分析该方法在阿里巴巴所处环境中的适用性及限制。然后,结合阿里巴巴最新财报数据(截至FY 2024 期)整理公司基本资料、选取可比公司、计算关键估值指标,进而得出对阿里巴巴的估值区间与市场价值对比。最后,基于实证结果,从估值结果合理性、影响因素(如业务结构、成长预期、市场情绪)以及方法优化建议三个维度展开讨论。研究发现:对于快速成长、业务多元的互联网企业而言,虽相对估值法具备便捷性与可比性优势,但也易受到可比公司选取不当、成长预期偏差及无形资产难以量化等影响。论文建议在实际应用中,应辅以折现模型(DCF)等方法,并注意调整估值倍率以反映公司成长性与风险特征。本文的研究可为互联网企业估值提供一种实务参考,也为资产评估的教学与研究提供新的案例视角。
  • 详情 Effect Evaluation of the Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) System on the Health Care of the Elderly: A Review
    Background: How to cope with the rapid growth of LTC (long-term care) needs for the old people without activities of daily living (ADL), which is also a serious hazard caused by public health emergencies such as COVID-2019 and SARS (2003), has become an urgent task in China, Germany, Japan, and other aging countries. As a response, the LTCI (longterm care insurance) system has been executed among European countries and piloted in 15 cities of China in 2016. Subsequently, the influence and dilemma of LTCI system have become a hot academic topic in the past 20 years.Methods: The review was carried out to reveal the effects of the LTCI system on different economic entities by reviewing relevantliterature published from January 2008 to September 2019. The quality of 25 quantitative and 24 qualitative articles was evaluated using the JBI and CASP critical evaluation checklist, respectively. Results: The review systematically examines the effects of the LTCI system on different microeconomic entities such as caretakers or their families and macroeconomic entities such as government spending. The results show that the LTCI system has a great impact on social welfare. For example, LTCI has a positive effect on the health and life quality of the disabled elderly. However, the role of LTCI in alleviating the financial burden on families with the disabled elderly may be limited. Conclusion: Implementation of LTCI system not only in reducing the physical and mental health problems of health care recipients and providers, and the economic burden of their families, but also promote the development of health care service industry and further improvement of the health care system. However, the dilemma and sustainable development of the LTCI system is the government needs to focus on in the future due to the sustainability of its funding sources.
  • 详情 What is China's Copper Supply Risk Under Clean Energy Transition Scenarios?
    Copper resources are widely used in power networks and clean - energy tech like PV panels, wind turbines, and NEVs. Restricted by domestic resources, China's copper supply chain is vulnerable with risks. Based on six supply - chain stages, this paper builds an assessment system for China's copper supply - chain risks. By adopting an improved Benefit of Doubt (BOD) model, this paper has systematically evaluated the risks in the whole copper supply chain, revealing the trends and deep-rooted causes of these risks. The findings of this study reveal that: (1) The supply chain risk of China's copper resources presents a significant upward trend over the past 15 years; (2) The current supply chain risks in copper are mainly concentrated at the stages of import, production, and application; and the recycling risk has a great potential for reducing the copper supply chain risks in the future. Based on these findings, this paper proposes two policy recommendations: (1) Develop diversified channels for importing copper resources and optimize overseas investment patterns and; (2) Improve the domestic supply capacity of secondary copper resources and reduce the risks at the recycling stage.
  • 详情 The Demand, Supply, and Market Responses of Corporate ESG Actions: Evidence from a Nationwide Experiment in China
    We conducted a nationwide field experiment with 4,800+ Chinese-listed companies, randomly raising ESG concerns to their management teams via high-visibility and high-stakes online platforms. Tracking the full impact-generating process, we find that companies respond to our concerns by providing high-quality answers, publishing ESG reports, and making commitments to investors. Over time, Environmental (E) inquiries boost stock valuations, while Governance (G) concerns prompt skepticism. Productive and opaque firms are more likely to respond, consistent with a signaling model where costly ESG actions signal firm quality under information asymmetry. Overall, ESG actions are likely driven by profit-oriented signaling rather than values-based motives.
  • 详情 ESG Ratings and Corporate Value: Exploring the Mediating Roles of Financial Distress and Financing Constraints
    The growing significance of sustainable development has underscored the importance of integrating corporate sustainability indicators into corporate strategies. As external stakeholders increasingly emphasize corporate environmential performance, social responsibility and governance (ESG), understanding its impact on corporate value becomes essential, especially in emerging markets like China. This research aims to bridge these knowledge gaps by empirically investigating the influence of ESG ratings on firms’ value among Chinese listed firms, with a special emphasis on the mediating roles played by financial distress and financing constraints. By analyzing data from listed companies of China over the period 2018 to 2022, this research explores the correlation between firms’ value and ESG ratings. The findings indicate a positive association between firms’ value and ESG ratings. Enhanced ESG ratings directly boost market valuation and indirectly elevate firm value by mitigating financing constraints and financial distress. Further analysis reveals the positive effects of ESG ratings are more noticeable in industries that are not heavily polluting and in state-owned enterprises. This research provides valuable insights for enterprise management by systematically examining how ESG ratings contribute to corporate value through the mitigation of financial distress and constraints, while also highlighting the variations in ESG strategy implementation across different types of enterprises.
  • 详情 Measurement and Spatial-Temporal Evolution Analysis of the High-Quality Development Level of China's Marine Economy
    This paper constructs an evaluation index system for the high-quality development of the marine economy based on the five dimensions of the new development paradigm. It employs entropy method, kernel density analysis, and Dagum Gini coefficient method to analyze the high-quality development level of China's marine economy and its spatial-temporal evolution from 2013 to 2022. The findings reveal that: (1) The comprehensive index for the high-quality development of China's marine economy exhibits an overall fluctuating upward trend; (2) The high-quality development levels of the marine economy in the eastern and southern marine economic circles are both above the national average, while that in the northern marine economic circle is below the national average; (3) The focus of high-quality development in China's marine economy is shifting towards economically developed regions along the southeast coast, demonstrating a trend of "higher in the south and lower in the north." Moreover, the gap in high-quality development of the marine economy among the three major marine economic circles is gradually narrowing, and the high-quality development of regional marine economies tends to become more coordinated.