analysts

  • 详情 The impact of ESG performances on analyst report readability: Evidence from China
    It has been widely recognized that firms’ environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performances are crucial for shaping their information environments. Nonetheless, the impact of ESG performances on important analyst report attributes still remains clear. Our study reveals that superior firm. ESG performances significantly enhance the analyst report readability. The mechanism analysis demonstrates that this effect is primarily driven by increased information accessibility (the information acquisition channel) and greater analysts’ research efforts (the analyst effort channel). As expected, this effect is more pronounced in firms operating in highly polluted industries, firms with opaque financial infomration and state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Finally, our findings reveal that the release of analyst reports triggers higher market reactions for firms with superior ESG performances. In overall, our study highlights the criticial role of firm ESG performances in boosting financial analysts’ information production process.
  • 详情 Corporate Governance, Chinese Characteristics: Huawei, Alibaba, Bytedance, DeepSeek
    China's tech companies are making waves with their recent achievements, including a "trifold" phone from Huawei and the revolutionary AI reasoning model from DeepSeek. Much discussion has centered on the founders of these companies and their ability to gain an edge on American rivals. But what is less appreciated or understood among foreign analysts of China’s tech giants is the role that innovation and transformation in corporate governance and organizational structure has played in these companies’ successes. Moreover, there are unique aspects of these companies from a corporate governance perspective that are not commonly seen in tech companies in other parts of the world or even within China itself. For instance, Huawei is 99% employee owned, while Alibaba is primarily governed by an "Alibaba Partnership." These unique corporate structures have arisen due to several factors, including the rapid changes to China’s regulatory landscape over the past three decades, distinct characteristics of Chinese business culture, geopolitical tensions and preoccupations with national security, and the “socialism with Chinese characteristics” model. In this article I overview some of the more distinctive corporate governance mechanisms of four Chinese tech companies: Huawei, Alibaba, Bytedance, and DeepSeek, and explain why these structures were adopted.
  • 详情 Peer Md&A Risk Disclosure and Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Accuracy: Evidence from China
    In this study, we investigate whether and how risk disclosure in peer firms’ management discussion and analysis (MD&A) influences analyst earnings forecast accuracy. We find that peer MD&A risk disclosure significantly improves forecast accuracy, demonstrating a positive spillover effect. Moreover, the impact of peer MD&A risk disclosure on analysts’ forecast accuracy strengthens with the comparability and reliability of peer firms’ information, while weakens with the disclosure quality of the focal firm. Finally, peer MD&A risk disclosure also reduces stock price crash risk, providing further evidence that it improves information environment of the focal firm.
  • 详情 Will the Government Intervene in the Local Analysts’Forecasts? Evidence from Financial Misconduct in Chinese State-Owned Enterprises
    This paper explores the impact of government intervention on local analysts’ earnings forecasts, based on a scenario of financial misconduct in Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs). The results show that, under the influence of the government, local analysts’ earnings forecasts for SOEs with financial misconduct are less accurate and more optimistically biased. Further heterogeneity analysis reveals that forecast bias by local analysts is greater when officials have stronger promotion incentives, when regions are less market-oriented and have a larger share of the state-owned economy, and when SOEs contribute more to taxation and employment. In further analysis, we find that local analysts have a more optimistic tone in reports targeting non-compliant SOEs. Local analysts who depend heavily on political information will also issue more biased and optimistic forecasts on SOEs with violations. Finally, as a reward for achieving government goals, the local brokerages affiliated with these analysts and providing these optimistic forecasts are more likely to become underwriters in seasoned equity offerings of SOEs. This paper reveals that government intervention significantly influences analyst forecasts, providing implications for understanding the sources of analyst forecast bias.
  • 详情 Attentive Market Timing
    This paper provides evidence that some seasoned equity offerings are motivated by public information. We test this channel in the supply chain setting, where supplier managers are more attentive than outside investors to customer news. We find that supplier firms are more likely to issue seasoned equity when their customer firms have negative earnings surprises. The results are mitigated when there is common scrutiny on the customer-supplier firm pairs by outside investors and analysts. Furthermore, long-run stock market performance appears to be worse for firms that issue seasoned equity following the negative earnings surprise of their customer firms.
  • 详情 Information Source Diversity and Analyst Forecast Bias
    This study investigates the impact of analysts' information source diversity on forecast bias and investment returns. We combine the GPT-4o model and text similarity, to extract the names of information sources from the text of analyst in-depth reports. Using 349,200 sources, we calculate information diversity scores based on the variety of data sources to measure analysts’ ability of selecting relevant information. The findings reveal that higher information diversity significantly reduces forecast bias and enhances portfolio returns. The effect is particularly pronounced for large companies, state-owned enterprises, those with low analyst coverage, low firm-specific experience, and reports with positive forecast revisions. Institutional investors recognize the value of this skill, while retail investors remain largely unaware, which contributes to financial inequality. This study highlights the critical role of information diversity in analyst performance.
  • 详情 Uncertainty and Market Efficiency: An Information Choice Perspective
    We develop an information choice model where information costs are sticky and co-move with firm-level intrinsic uncertainty as opposed to temporal variations in uncertainty. Incorporating analysts' forecasts, we predict a negative relationship between information costs and information acquisition, as proxied by the predictability of analysts' forecast biases. Finally, the model shows a contrasting pattern between information acquisition and intrinsic and temporal uncertainty, where intrinsic uncertainty strengthens return predictability of analysts' biases through the information cost channel, while temporal uncertainty weakens it through the information benefit channel. We empirically confirm these opposing relationships that existing theories struggle to explain.
  • 详情 Decoding the Nexus: Industry Litigation Risks and Corporate Misconduct in the Chinese Market
    This study examines the relationship between industry litigation risk and corporate misconduct using China's A-share listed companies’ data from 2007 to 2022. The findings indicate a significant and negative association, where companies in industries with higher median litigation amounts relative to their assets exhibit reduced incidents of misconduct. This suggests that businesses in high-risk litigation sectors may adopt more cautious practices to mitigate legal challenges and protect their reputations. The robustness of these findings is confirmed through a variety of tests, including a quasi-experimental setting of the chief judges rotation implemented in 2008. Furthermore, the study finds that external monitors including financial analysts’ site visits and local law firms moderate the negative relationship between litigation risk and misconduct. We further show that legal enforcement and moral capital are the two channels through which industry litigation risk impacts corporate misconduct. Our findings underscore the role of litigation risk in shaping peer firms' behavior.
  • 详情 Site Visits and Corporate Investment Efficiency
    Site visits allow visitors to physically inspect productive resources and interact with onsite employees and executives face-to-face. We posit that, by allowing visitors to acquire investmentrelated information and monitor the management team, site visits offer disciplinary benefits for corporate investments. Using mandatory disclosures of site visits in China, we find that corporate investments become more responsive to growth opportunities as the intensity of site visits increases, consistent with the notion that site visits yield disciplinary benefits. We also find that the positive association between site visits and investment efficiency is more pronounced when visitors can glean more investment-related information and when they have stronger incentives and greater power to monitor managers. This positive association is also stronger among firms with more severe agency problems and higher asset tangibility. The overall evidence supports the notion that site visits serve as a unique venue for institutional investors and financial analysts to acquire valuable information and serve a monitoring function, which generates disciplinary benefits for corporate investments.
  • 详情 Political contributions and analyst behavior
    We show that the personal traits of analysts, as revealed by their political donations, influence their forecasting behavior and stock prices. Analysts who contribute primarily to the Republican Party adopt a more conservative fore- casting style. Their earnings forecast revisions are less likely to deviate from the forecasts of other analysts and are less likely to be bold. Their stock recommen- dations also contain more modest upgrades and downgrades. Overall, these analysts produce better quality research, which is recognized and rewarded by their employers, institutional investors, and the media. Stock market participants, how- ever, do not fully recognize their superior ability as the market reaction following revisions by these analysts is weaker.