credit

  • 详情 The Transformative Role of Artificial Intelligence and Big Data in Banking
    This paper examines how the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and big data affects banking operations, emphasizing the crucial role of big data in unlocking the full potential of AI. Leveraging a comprehensive dataset of over 4.5 million loans issued by a leading commercial bank in China and exploiting a policy mandate as an exogenous shock, we document significant improvements in credit rating accuracy and loan performance, particularly for SMEs. Specifically, the adoption of AI and big data reduces the rate of unclassified credit ratings by 40.1% and decreases loan default rates by 29.6%. Analyzing the bank's phased implementation, we find that integrating big data analytics substantially enhances the effectiveness of AI models. We further identify significant heterogeneity: improvements are especially pronounced for unsecured and short-term loans, borrowers with incomplete financial records, first-time borrowers, long-distance borrowers, and firms located in economically underdeveloped or linguistically diverse regions. Our findings underscore the powerful synergy between big data and AI, demonstrating their joint capability to alleviate information frictions and enhance credit allocation efficiency.
  • 详情 Can Social Credit System Construction Improve Enterprise Innovation?
    Enterprise innovation is a hot topic in current academic research. Taking the demonstration city of social credit system construction implemented in China as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper investigates whether the construction of social credit system can improve enterprise innovation. The study finds that the construction of social credit system effectively enhances enterprise innovation. Mechanism test shows that the construction of social credit system escalates the scale and duration of enterprise loans, thereby fostering enterprise innovation. These findings present insights that the pivotal role of informal institutions, such as the social credit system, in facilitating the upgrading of industrial structures and augmenting the quality of economic development.
  • 详情 A welfare analysis of the Chinese bankruptcy market
    How much value has been lost in the Chinese bankruptcy system due to excessive liquidation of companies whose going concern value is greater than the liquidation value? I compile new judiciary bankruptcy auction data covering all bankruptcy asset sales from 2017 to 2022 in China. I estimate the valuation of the asset for both the final buyer and creditor through the revealed preference method using an auction model. On average, excessive liquidation results in a 13.5% welfare loss. However, solely considering the liquidation process, an 8% welfare gain is derived from selling the asset without transferring it to the creditors. Firms that are (1) larger in total asset size, (2) have less information disclosure, (3) have less access to the financial market, and (4) possess a higher fraction of intangible assets are more vulnerable to such welfare loss. Overall, this paper suggests that policies promoting bankruptcy reorganization by introducing distressed investors who target larger bankruptcy firms suffering more from information asymmetry will significantly enhance welfare in the Chinese bankruptcy market.
  • 详情 The Impacts of Green Credit Policy on Green Innovation and Financial Assets Reallocation of Enterprises in China
    This study assesses the impact of China’s Green Credit Guidelines (GCG) 2012 on the quality of firms’ green innovation and their financial asset allocations. While examining patent applications and grants, our findings reveal that, although the GCG 2012 led to a significant increase in green patent applications, its influence on granted patents, especially in the invention category, was minimal. This highlights a discrepancy between innovation intent and quality, suggesting that highpolluting enterprises (HPEs) prioritize rapid policy compliance rather than substantial environmental improvements. However, HPEs seem to prioritize liquidity over long-term financialization, potentially indicating enhanced credit allocation efficiency.
  • 详情 Cracking the Glass Ceiling, Tightening the Spread: The Bond Market Impacts of Board Gender Diversity
    This paper investigates whether increased female representation on corporate boards affects firms’ bond financing costs. Exploiting the 2017 Big Three’s campaigns as a plausibly exogenous shock, we document that firms experiencing larger increases in female board representation, induced by the campaigns, experience significant reductions in bond yield spreads and improvements in credit ratings. We identify reduced leverage and enhanced workplace environment as key mechanisms, and show that the effects are stronger among firms with greater tail risk and information asymmetry. An alternative identification strategy based on California’s SB 826 regulatory mandate yields consistent results. Our findings suggest that board gender diversity enhances governance in ways valued by credit markets.
  • 详情 The Green Value of BigTech Credit
    This study identifies an incentive-compatible mechanism to foster individual environmental engagement. Utilizing a dataset comprising 100,000 randomly selected users of Ant Forest—a prominent personal carbon accounting platform embedded within Alipay, China's leading BigTech super-app—we provide causal evidence that individuals strategically engage in eco-friendly behaviors to enhance their credit limits, particularly when approaching borrowing constraints. These behaviors not only illustrate the green nudging effect of BigTech but also generate value for the platform by leveraging individual green actions as soft information, thereby improving the efficiency of credit allocation. Using a structural model, we estimate an annual green value of 427.52 million US dollars generated by linking personal carbon accounting with BigTech credit. We also show that the incentive-based mechanism surpasses green mandates and subsidies in improving consumer welfare and overall societal welfare. Our findings highlight the role of an incentive-aligned approach, such as integrating personal carbon accounts into credit reporting frameworks, in addressing environmental challenges.
  • 详情 Information Frictions, Credit Constraints, and Distant Borrowing
    We provide a novel explanation for the geographic dispersion of borrower-lender relationships based on information frictions rather than competition. Firms may strategically select distant banks to increase lenders’ information production costs, securing larger loans under information-insensitive contracts. Our model predicts that higher-quality firms prefer distant lenders for information-insensitive contracts, while lower-quality firms use local lenders with information-sensitive terms. Using transaction-level data from a major Chinese bank, we find strong empirical support: higher-rated firms exhibit greater propensity for distant borrowing; local loans show stronger negative correlation between amounts and interest rates; and distant loan pricing demonstrates weaker sensitivity to defaults.
  • 详情 Housing Price and Credit Environment: Evidence from China
    In this paper, we use a unique dataset of the List of Dishonest Judgment Debtors to explore the impact on the social credit environment of the increasing housing prices in China. We find that housing price has a negative impact on the local credit environment. Dominance analysis suggests that housing price contributes to the model R-squared (R2) by an overwhelming majority, suppressing any other economic or social factors in explaining the deteriorating credit environment. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the rule of law and moral standards mitigate the negative influence of high housing prices, while income inequality exacerbates the influence.
  • 详情 Creditor protection and asset-debt maturity mismatch: a quasi-natural experiment in China
    Recently, the Chinese Government has strengthened the enforcement of bankruptcy laws to protect creditors’ rights. This study shed light on the effect of creditor protection on asset-debt maturity mismatch by employing a quasi-natural experiment in China. The results show that creditor protection mitigates maturity mismatch, and the effect is more pronounced among financially constrained firms. Results remain robust after the dynamic effects test, placebo test, propensity score matching approach, entropy balancing method, and controlling for COVID-19 shocks. Mechanism tests show that creditor protection decreases the cost of debt and reduces over-investment. The effect of creditor protection is pronounced in private companies, financially independent companies, and companies with secured loans. Creditor rights can alleviate maturity mismatch in firms with medium ownership concentration and managerial ownership levels. Economic consequences studies suggest that creditor protection reduces corporate default risk. This study reveals the mechanism and effect of creditor protection on asset-debt maturity mismatch in emerging markets, providing recommendations to policymakers for assessing and improving bankruptcy law regimes.
  • 详情 Let a Small Bank Fail: Implicit Non-guarantee and Financial Contagion
    This paper examines the consequences of Chinese regulators deviating from a long-standing full bailout policy in addressing the distress of a city-level commercial bank. This policy shift led to a persistent widening of credit spreads and a significant decline in funding ratios for negotiable certificates of deposit issued by small banks relative to large ones. Our empirical analysis reveals a novel contagion mechanism driven by reduced confidence in future bailouts (implicit non-guarantee), contributing to the subsequent collapse of other small banks. However, in the longer term, this policy shift improved price efficiency, credit allocation, and discouraged risk-taking among small banks.