credit expansion

  • 详情 Digital Economy, Credit Expansion, and Modernization of Industrial Structure in China
    In the context of promoting high-quality economic development, using digital technology to empower industrial transformation and upgrading, thus driving consumption growth has become a key problem that needs to be solved urgently. By using data at the prefecture-level cities in China from 2011 to 2020, the paper has discussed the influence of the digital economy on residents' consumption and its internal mechanism. Theoretical analysis and empirical test results have shown that first of all, the digital economy has significantly improved residents' consumption, and this conclusion is still valid after the endogenous test and robustness test. Secondly, mechanism analysis has shown that the digital economy can increase residents' consumption by promoting the upgrading of the industrial structure. Thirdly, the promotion effect of the digital economy on residents' consumption is heterogeneous between urban and rural areas and between different regions. Compared with urban, and eastern and central regions, the digital economy has a more significant incentive for residents' consumption in rural areas and western regions, indicating that its development is beneficial to narrowing the gap of consumption between urban and rural areas and between regions. Finally, the improvement effect of the digital economy on residents' consumption has marginal increment nonlinear characteristics, which is continuously strengthened with the upgrading of industrial structure. The above research conclusions can provide a theoretical basis for further improving the infrastructure of the digital economy, accelerating the integration of the digital economy with traditional industries, and building a consumer Internet.
  • 详情 Digital Economy, Industrial Structure Upgrading, and Residents' Consumption: Empirical Evidence from Prefecture-Level Cities in China
    Digital economy promotes the modernization of industrial structure by influencing the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure through technical level and factor level; while excessive credit expansion hinders the modernization of industrial structure. This paper uses panel data from 31 jurisdictions in China to conduct empirical analysis, and finds that digital economy development shows a year-on-year rising trend, and there is a large gap between different regions. The conclusion still holds after the robustness test and regional heterogeneity analysis, thus enriching the understanding of mechanisms and regional differentiation of digital economy, credit expansion on industrial structure modernization.
  • 详情 The Rise of E-Wallets and Buy-Now-Pay-Later: Payment Competition, Credit Expansion, and Consumer Behavior
    The past decade has witnessed a phenomenal rise of digital wallets, and the COVID-19 pandemic further accelerated their adoption globally. Such e-wallets provide not only a conduit to external bank accounts but also internal payment options, including the ever-popular Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL). We examine, for the first time, e-wallet transactions matched with merchant and consumer information from a world-leading provider based in China, with around one billion users globally and a business model that other e-wallet providers quickly converge to. We document that internal payment options, especially BNPL, dominate both online and on-site transactions. BNPL has greatly expanded credit access at the extensive margin through its adoption in two-sided payment markets. While BNPL crowds out other e-wallet payment options, it expands FinTech credit to underserved consumers. Exploiting a randomized experiment, we also find that e-wallet credit through BNPL substantially boosts consumer spending. Nevertheless, users, especially those relying on e-wallets as their sole credit source, carefully moderate borrowing when incurring interest charges. The insights likely prove informative for economies transitioning from cash-heavy to cashless societies where digital payments and FinTech credit see the largest growth and market potential.
  • 详情 Credit Allocation under Economic Stimulus: Evidence from China
    We study credit allocation across  rms and its real e ects during China's economic stimulus plan of 2009-2010. We match con dential loan-level data from the 19 largest Chinese banks with  rm-level data on manufacturing  rms. We document that the stimulus-driven credit expansion disproportionately favored state-owned rms and  rms with lower average product of capital, reversing the process of capital reallocation towards private  rms that characterized China's high growth before 2008. We argue that implicit government guarantees for state-connected  rms become more prominent during recessions and can explain this reversal.
  • 详情 The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the 2007 Mortgage Default Crisis
    We conduct a within-county analysis using detailed zip code level data to document new findings regarding the origins of the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression. The recent sharp increase in mortgage defaults is significantly amplified in subprime zip codes that experience an unprecedented relative growth in mortgage credit from 2002 to 2005. This expansion in mortgage credit to subprime zip codes occurs despite sharply declining relative (and in some cases absolute) income growth in these neighborhoods. In fact, 2002 to 2005 is the only period in the last 18 years when income and mortgage credit growth are negatively correlated. We show that the expansion in mortgage credit to subprime zip codes and its dissociation from income growth is closely correlated with the increase in securitization of subprime mortgages. Finally, we show that all of our key findings hold in markets with very elastic housing supply that have low house price growth during the credit expansion years. Overall, our findings favor a supply-based explanation for credit expansion over income-based or house price expectations-based hypotheses.