currency expectations

  • 详情 Short-Horizon Currency Expectations
    In this paper, we show that only the systematic component of exchange rate expectations of professional investors is a strong predictor of the cross-section of currency returns. The predictability is strong in short and long horizons. The strategy offers significant Sharpe ratios for holding periods of 1 to 12 months, and it is unrelated to existing currency investment strategies, including risk-based currency momentum. The results hold for forecast horizons of 3, 12, and 24 months, and they are robust after accounting for transaction costs. The idiosyncratic component of currency expectations does not contain important information for the cross-section of currency returns. Our strategy is more significant for currencies with low sentiment and it is not driven by volatility and illiquidity. The results are robust when we extract the systematic component of the forecasts using a larger number of predictors.