determinants

  • 详情 Determinants of Firm Survival Using Machine Learning: Evidence from the Pearl River Delta, China
    Firm survival, as a key indicator of regional economic resilience, has gained increasing attention in the context of global economic uncertainty and the deep adjustments in industrial structures. In the Pearl River Delta (PRD), a core region of China’s Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, the characteristics of firm life cycles are crucial for understanding spatial development inequalities and institutional effects in emerging economies. This study focuses on firms in the PRD, using full life-cycle data from registration, operation, to deregistration. An XGBoost regression model is employed, incorporating the SHAP explanation algorithm, to systematically analyze the main factors influencing firm survival. The results show that: (1) Firm establishment time is the primary factor influencing survival, with significant “survival threshold” and “growth leap” effects—mature firms exhibit a distinct survival advantage; (2) Among spatial structure variables, moderate industry specialization and diversity enhance firm survival rates, while excessive concentration and diversification show diminishing or negative returns, reflecting an “ecological threshold” effect; (3) External shocks have a significant suppressive impact on startups, while policy support and capital size show limited explanatory power; (4) The ownership structure, especially state-holding, has a positive moderating effect on firm survival in specific contexts, indicating that private enterprises’ flexibility and adaptability can compensate for institutional gaps. This study offers insights into the spatial heterogeneity of firm survival mechanisms, providing quantitative evidence for regional economic policy adjustments and firm resilience-building. Recommendations include promoting differentiated policies, optimizing industrial ecological spatial layouts, and piloting systems to enhance survival resilience, especially for mixed-ownership firms.
  • 详情 Do Political Connections Reduce Customer Complaints? Evidence from China's Online Complaint Platform
    Research Question/Issue: This study investigates whether and how political connections affect customer complaints in the Chinese market, using a comprehensive dataset from the country’s largest online complaint platform. Research Findings/Insights: Analyzing 22,644 firm-year observations from 2018 to 2023, we find that politically connected firms experience significantly fewer customer complaints. A one-unit increase in political connection strength is associated with a 9% reduction in complaints relative to the sample mean. This effect operates through two primary mechanisms: a reputation-motivation channel and a financial resource channel. The mitigating effect is more pronounced for firms in highly marketized regions, those with higher advertising expenditures, companies facing greater earnings pressure, and those with lower tangible asset ratios. Theoretical/Academic Implications: Our study contributes to the literature on political connections and corporate governance by demonstrating how political capital translates into tangible consumer experience advantages. It also advances research on the determinants of customer complaints by highlighting the role of internal governance mechanisms, particularly managerial political ties. Our findings support the Corporate Reputation and Financial Resource Hypotheses while challenging alternative explanations based on regulatory shielding or managerial complacency. Practitioner/Policy Implications: For corporate leaders, our results underscore the importance of reputation management and quality investment, particularly when political connections are absent. Policymakers should consider strengthening public monitoring institutions to reinforce reputational incentives across markets. Investors may use customer complaints as an indicator of product quality and operational stability in their investment decisions.
  • 详情 Quantifying human capital disclosure in China with textual analysis
    Purpose – Estimates disclosure of human capital management for Chinese listed companies. Investigate the patterns ofthe disclosure of human capital management acrossindustries and regions. Examine the determinants of human capital management disclosure in China. Examine the association between human capital management disclosure and firm performance. Design/methodology/approach – We employ natural language processing techniques on annual reports’ management discussion and analysissections.We construct exposuremeasuresforten human capitalmanagement dimensions and synthesize them into one comprehensive measure of human capital management disclosure. We conduct empirical analysis on the measure using a sample of Chinese listed companies during 2009–2022. Findings – We construct a measure of human capital management disclosure for 5,153 Chinese companies during 2009–2022. We find that firms with high HCM disclosure are more labor intensive and have more cash holdings and R&D expenditure but have lower sales growth, market-to-book ratio and leverage. HCM disclosure is associated with better future accounting performance but poor future market valuation. There are substantial variations in HCM disclosure across industries, geographic regions and ownership types. HCM disclosure has increased significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic. Social implications – The increased HCM disclosure and its association with firm operating performance and market valuation indicate the relevance of HCM in corporate management and underscore the need for more robust and standardized disclosure of HCM in China. Our findingssupport recent regulatory efforts by CSRC to enhance the transparency and accountability in HCM disclosures and advocate for more explicit and specific HCM disclosure requirements in the future. Originality/value – We propose a quantitative measure of human capital management disclosure, which can be modified to apply to other markets. We construct a comprehensive, ready-to-use dataset for HCM disclosure for Chinese listed companies and conduct descriptive analysis on the dataset. We identify the patterns of human capital management disclosure and its determinants in China.
  • 详情 Operational Metrics in Derivatives Adoption: Evidence from China's Chemical Industry
    This study examines the role of financial derivatives in managing operational and financial risks within China's chemical manufacturing sector. While prior research has primarily focused on financial determinants of hedging decisions, we highlight the significant influence of operational metrics—particularly inventory levels and turnover rates—in shaping firms’ engagement in derivatives markets. Drawing from a sample of 289 publicly listed chemical firms from 2016 to 2022, we employ probit regression and K-means clustering to explore how operational and financial factors jointly determine derivatives adoption. Our empirical results reveal that operational metrics have a non-negligible impact on hedging decisions. Specifically, inventory and turnover rates emerge as primary determinants of firms' initiatives, while pre-tax operating profit remains significant from a financial perspective. The moderation analysis of cash flow reveals that financially constrained firms prioritize derivatives for operational risk mitigation, while resource-abundant firms employ them selectively for strategic optimization. Furthermore, our robustness tests, which control for geographical distinctions and the COVID-19 effect, confirm that firm-specific operational characteristics consistently dominate firms' hedging decisions despite regional heterogeneity. Finally, clustering analysis underscores the interplay between operational efficiency and capital robustness, showing that firms exhibiting superior operational efficiency and capital robustness demonstrate higher engagement in derivatives hedging. These findings contribute to the corporate risk management literature by expounding on the primacy of operational considerations in derivatives usage, particularly in asset-intensive industries. The study also provides practical implications for manufacturing firms navigating volatile market conditions, emphasizing that integrating operational and financial strategies is crucial for effective risk management.
  • 详情 Pricing Bond-Pledged Repos
    Using proprietary data from China’s interbank bond-pledged repo market, we show that the interest-rate risk and credit risk of the pledged bond are key determinants of repo pricing. From a bond-option perspective, we develop arbitrage-free models that anchor the repo yield curve to the pledged-bond yield curve. The fair repo haircut is interpreted as the per-unit price of a call option on the pledged bond. We extend this framework to incorporate bail-in or bail-out potential, which enhances the model’s empirical performance and provides a novel explanation for systematic repo cheapness and existence of negative haircuts.
  • 详情 Country Risk: Determinants, Measures and Implications -The 2025 Edition
    As companies and investors globalize, we are increasingly faced with estimation questions about the risk associated with this globalization. When investors invest in China Mobile, Infosys or Vale, they may be rewarded with higher returns, but they are also exposed to additional risk. When Siemens and Apple push for growth in Asia and Latin America, they clearly are exposed to the political and economic turmoil that often characterize these markets. In practical terms, how, if at all, should we adjust for this additional risk? We will begin the paper with an overview of overall country risk, its sources and measures. We will continue with a discussion of sovereign default risk and examine sovereign ratings and credit default swaps (CDS) as measures of that risk. We will extend that discussion to look at country risk from the perspective of equity investors, by looking at equity risk premiums for different countries and consequences for valuation. In the fourth section, we argue that a company’s exposure to country risk should not be determined by where it is incorporated and traded. By that measure, neither Coca Cola nor Nestle are exposed to country risk. Exposure to country risk should come from a company’s operations, making country risk a critical component of the valuation of almost every large multinational corporation. In the final section, we will also look at how to move across currencies in valuation and capital budgeting, and how to avoid mismatching errors.
  • 详情 Does data governance-driven financial regulation affect bank risk-taking?
    We exploit a unique financial regulatory tool with data-governance functions as a quasi-natural experiment to explore the determinants of bank risk-taking. The paper finds that Examination Analysis System Technology (EAST) reduces bank risk-taking. This result is more pronounced in banks with higher capital adequacy ratios and higher liquidity levels. We also find that the inhibitory effect of EAST on bank risk is more significant for banks in eastern regions and listed banks. Our findings highlight the positive impact of data regulation on promoting financial stability.
  • 详情 Concentration in Supply Chain Configuration and Corporate Investment Efficiency
    Purpose: High investment efficiency is a key dimension of high-quality enterprise development. As critical nodes embedded in supply chain networks, corporate investment behaviors are profoundly shaped by the structural characteristics of their supply chains. Concentrated supply chain configuration, as one of the core structural features, has not yet been systematically examined in terms of its impact on corporate investment efficiency and the underlying mechanisms, leaving an important research gap. Design/methodology/approach: Based on a sample of China’s A-share listed enterprises from 2007 to 2023, this study empirically examines the effect of concentrated supply chain configuration on corporate investment efficiency. Findings: First, concentrated supply chain configuration exerts a significant inhibitory effect on corporate investment efficiency, a conclusion that remains robust after a series of tests. Second, mechanism tests indicate that this influence operates primarily through three channels: exacerbating financing constraints, crowding out working capital, and deteriorating the information environment. Third, heterogeneity analysis shows that both supplier concentration and customer concentration inhibit investment efficiency, with the latter having a slightly stronger negative effect. The adverse impact is more pronounced in over-investing enterprises, non-state-owned enterprises, smaller firms, and those in growth or decline stages. Furthermore, regional factor market development, external market power, and internal control quality are found to effectively mitigate the negative effect of concentrated supply chain configuration on corporate investment efficiency. Originality: This study extends the research on determinants of corporate investment efficiency from a supply chain structure perspective, providing new theoretical insights and empirical evidence for understanding corporate investment behavior in China.
  • 详情 Confucian Culture and Corporate Environmental Management: The Role of Innovation, Financing Constraints and Managerial Myopia
    This paper explores the impact of Confucian culture on the environmental management practices of firms, utilizing data from A-share listed companies in China from 2009 to 2022. The study reveals several significant findings: (1) Firms in regions with a stronger presence of Confucian culture are more likely to adopt environmentally responsible management practices; (2) Confucian culture enhances firms' environmental management through three channels: promoting innovation, easing financing constraints, and reducing managerial myopia, with particular emphasis on alleviating financing constraints; (3) Regional environmental regulations mitigate the positive influence of Confucian culture on firms' environmental management practices. This study contributes to the literature by elucidating the determinants of corporate environmental management and emphasizing the critical role of cultural factors, particularly in overcoming financial barriers, in corporate decision-making.
  • 详情 Green Wave Goes Up the Stream: Green Innovation Among Supply Chain Partners
    Using firm-customer matched data from 2005 to 2020 in China, we examined the spillover effects and mechanisms of green innovation (GI) among supply chain partners. Results show a positive association between customers' GI and their supply firms' GI, indicating spillover effects in the supply chain. Customers' GI increase from the 25th to the 75th percentile leads to a significant 19% increase in supply firms' GI. Certain conditions amplify the spillover effect, including customers with higher bargaining power, operating in less competitive industries, and supply firms making relationship-specific investments or experiencing greater customer stability. Geographic proximity and shared ownership further enhance the spillover effect. Information-based and competition-based channels drive the spillover effect, while customers with higher GI encourage genuine GI activities by supply firms. External environmental regulations, such as the Chinese Green Credit Policy and Environmental Protection Law, strengthen the spillover effect, supporting the Porter hypothesis. This research expands understanding of spillover effects in the supply chain and contributes to the literature on GI determinants.