This paper investigates the high-frequency dynamics of macroeconomic expectations and disagreement among professional forecasters. We propose a novel mixed-frequency estimation approach that integrates daily asset returns with quarterly expectation data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Our findings indicate that consensus forecasts are updated efficiently according to Bayes' rule, independent of prior forecasts. By employing "representative forecasters" as proxies for real-world agents, we derive a simple yet intuitive evolution equation for disagreement, revealing that changes in disagreement are primarily driven by different interpretations of new information. Furthermore, we reconstruct daily series of expectations and disagreement concerning macroeconomic growth, achieving impressive R2 values of 93.3% and 84.5% against the true quarterly series.

The use of green finance to slow down global warming in support of sustainable development remains widely discussed. This study examines whether investment structure moderates the impact of green finance on the environment in China, one of the top carbon-emitting nations and the second-largest economy in the world. We primarily used the moments-quantile regression approach with fixed-effect models on panel data from 1992Q1 to 2020Q4. First, the results confirmed that green finance and public and private investments worked synergistically to lower CO2 emissions, especially in Central and Western China. However, there was no proof that green finance and foreign direct investment were complementary in reducing CO2 emissions in China, unlike the Central region. Second, green finance marginally lowered CO2 emissions in all provinces, mainly in Eastern and Western China; this reduction was largely dependent on private investment in the Western region’s most polluting areas and foreign direct investment in Eastern and Western China’s least polluting provinces. Third, the beneficial effect of green finance occurred at varying optimal thresholds and investment-related conditions across Chinese regions at different quantiles. Lastly, we showed that in contrast to the variable impacts of urbanization, oil prices, and economic growth across Chinese regions at different quantiles, renewable energy, and trade openness reduced CO2 emissions. In conclusion, the study makes some policy recommendations for China’s sustainable economic development, an important model from which other countries can tailor their investment strategies and environmentally friendly policies.

The study of interconnections between various sectors of the national economy is crucial for understanding the pattern and pace of macroeconomic growth. This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of shocks occurring in specific sectors through both supply and demand perspectives and proposes a combination of bottom-up and top-down structural path analysis approaches to trace the transmission path of network spillover effects, where shocks in this paper refer to microeconomic productivity changes and network spillover is defined as the effect on GDP due to the propagation of shocks to other sectors. The research results found that the total spillover effect of primary and secondary industry sectors in China shows an inverted U-shape, and the total spillover effect of tertiary industry sectors shows an upward trend. A large total spillover effect of a sector does not mean that both upward and downward spillover effects are large; for example, the construction industry has high upward spillover effects and low downward spillover effects. The spillover effect of each production layer decreases as the path lengthens, and the distribution is Lshaped.In addition, by identifying the critical paths of spillover effects, we find that the spillover effects of labor-intensive industries, such as wholesale and retail, are decreasing year by year, and the spillover effects of the paths related to the information technology industry are gradually occupying an important position.

Chinese enterprises are currently facing unprecedented economic transformations accompanied by a diverse array of challenges. This article delves into these challenges and provides management recommendations to assist companies in addressing these pressing issues. First, China's economic growth is gradually slowing, prompting companies to explore new avenues for growth, such as diversifying their products and markets, enhancing research and development, and expanding into emerging markets. Second, the uncertain global trade landscape has impacted exports and supply chains, necessitating diversified supply chains, new trade partnerships, and proactive strategies to navigate potential trade policy changes. Additionally, the pressure of technological innovation cannot be underestimated, urging companies to increase R&D investment, collaborate with other enterprises on research, and recruit and nurture high-quality tech talent. Furthermore, with the Chinese government's growing focus on environmental concerns, companies need to invest in clean production technologies, build sustainable supply chains, and actively fulfill their social responsibilities. Other challenges including rising labor costs, intellectual property protection, financial risks, regulatory compliance, talent recruitment and retention, and digital transformation all require proactive responses. By adopting proactive management strategies, Chinese enterprises can thrive in this era filled with both opportunities and risks, achieving sustainable growth and enhanced competitiveness.

Dynamic efficiency is an essential issue in macroeconomics and finance, central to the analyses of economic growth, asset pricing, and fiscal policies for both academia and policymakers. We offer an integrated analysis of metrics from the perspective of interest rates and capital returns, examining the relationship between varying rates of return r and growthg in China. We compare the risk-free rate rf, the returns on assets re, and the returns on capital rk with the growth rate g. Our findings indicate that, in general, rf < g, g < re, and g < rk. As the economy slows, the gap between rf and g continues to shrink, while the signs suggest that returns to capital are falling slightly slower than the rate of economic growth. Furthermore, we use a state-space model to estimate China’s natural rate of interest r∗ and potential output growth rate g∗. We find that r∗ < g∗ and the gap between themhas gradually narrowed over the past two decades.

In the international context of the surging tide of anti-globalization, China will raise the establishment of pilot free trade zone as a national strategy, and achieve the goal of promoting highquality economic growth through a series of reform measures, such as promoting investment liberalization and facilitation, improving investment promotion and protection mechanisms, and improving the level of overseas investment cooperation. To study the role of the pilot free trade zones on investment, the panel data of 46 cities from 2005 to 2018 are used to empirically test the investment growth effect and investment spillover effect of the pilot free trade zones by using the Difference-in-Differences Spatial Dubin Model. The results show that the pilot free trade zones can significantly promote investment growth and have a spillover effect on investment in surrounding areas. Through the grouping regression of the eastern, central, and western regions, it is found that the eastern pilot free trade zones have the most obvious investment spillover effect on the surrounding areas, and the central pilot free trade zones have a siphon effect on the investment in the surrounding areas. In addition, different batches of pilot free trade zones or the same batch of pilot free trade zones have different investment spillover effects on surrounding areas at different time points. Finally, policy suggestions are put forward: strengthen the strategic implementation of the pilot free trade zones, improve the spatial radiation mechanism, promote linkage development and differentiated development, and make the pilot free trade zones better promote investment growth and investment spillover.

This paper highlights the crucial role of land allocation mechanisms in promoting industrial agglomeration by examining China’s 2007 industrial land market reform. By introducing transparency into the land-selling process, the reform facilitated more buyers to compete for land (reflected by increased land sale prices), enabling local governments to allocate land to the most suitable users. Combining comprehensive data sets that include information on initial local industrial structure, new industrial establishments, and industrial land transactions, the empirical analysis finds that the reform significantly increased the entry of firms from industries aligned with local specialization, particularly in areas that implemented the reform more strictly. A back-of-the-envelope calculation indicates a 1.3% increase in the national average total factor productivity of new entrants over three years post-reform due to a better match between new entrants and local industry specialization. Supporting evidence demonstrates the reform’s positive effect on economic growth (reflected in changes in nighttime lights), potentially through increasing local firms’ TFP.

This paper aims to empirically explore the cyclical attributes of dynamic correlation shifts between the stock and real estate market, and the factors that influence this correlation during different periods of the economic cycle. Our research uncovers a significant structural shift in the correlation towards the end of 2012. By taking into account macroeconomic growth, regulatory policies, financial market conditions, and developments within both the stock and real estate markets, we investigate the time-varying characteristics of these factors' influence. The results highlight the pronounced cyclical asymmetry of these influential factors. Currently, the wealth effect in China's stock and real estate markets has significantly diminished, and the credit-price effect has vanished. A marked seesaw relationship is evident between the two markets. This outcome supports that various restrictions imposed on the real estate market have reduced its investment appeal.

This paper examines the relationship between kin-based institutions and the state in the modern economy, exploring how clan captures the local government. Using data from China’s primary land market and a nationwide genealogy dataset, we employ spatial matching to estimate clan’s causal impacts on land parcel prices, which are a crucial source of fiscal revenue for local government. We find that firms linked to local clans obtained 1.3%-3.0% lower prices than those without clanship connections. We show that clan firms get lower prices through collusion with bidders, a process facilitated by local officials. This patron-client relationship leads to a decline in economic growth at the county level, while China’s anti-corruption campaign transforms the economic impact from negative to positive.

The caliber of export products is a microcosmic reffection of economic development quality. This study seeks to elucidate the inffuence of environmental regulation on product quality, integrating the role of the skill premium as shaped by environmental regulation within a Dixit-Stiglitz CES production function model. Additionally, we empirically scrutinize the interplay between environmental regulation, skill premium, and product quality, utilizing Chinese customs export data in conjunction with data from listed companies spanning 2003-2015. The conclusions drawn from our theoretical analysis and empirical veriffcation reveal an inverted U-shaped relationship between environmental regulation and product quality, which is tempered by the skill premium. Moreover, a signiffcant positive correlation exists between environmental regulation and the skill premium. Similarly, the relationship between the skill premium and product quality manifests an inverted U-shape. Notably, an elevated skill premium markedly bolsters the enhancement of product quality through green innovation. These insights underscore the need for balanced environmental regulations and strategic investment in skilled labor to augment product quality. This serves as a valuable compass for policymakers and businesses endeavoring for green innovation and high-quality, sustainable economic growth.