efficiency

  • 详情 The More You See, The Less You Agree: Corporate Transparency and Disagreement
    Traditional information asymmetry theories suggest that greater corporate transparency should reduce investor disagreement. Using Chinese mutual fund holdings, we document the opposite pattern: transparency amplifies disagreement among institutional investors. Mechanism tests show that transparency discourages herding while intensifying private information acquisition among fund managers. The effect is stronger for growth-oriented and high-skill funds, and during periods of elevated market sentiment, and among firms with lower credibility, excessive disclosure frequency, and greater investor attention. Further analysis indicates that this transparency-induced disagreement stems from informed trading rather than noise, thereby enhancing price informativeness and market efficiency. Overall, the evidence reveals the dual nature of transparency as both an informational input and a behavioral catalyst that increases disagreement in financial markets.
  • 详情 Finding Core Balanced Modules in Statistically Validated Stock Networks
    Traditional threshold-based stock networks suffer from subjective parameter selection and inherent limitations: they constrain relationships to binary representations, failing to capture both correlation strength and negative dependencies. To address this, we introduce statistically validated correlation networks that retain only statistically significant correlations via a rigorous t-test of Pearson coefficients. We then propose a novel structure termed the largest strong-correlation balanced module (LSCBM), defined as the maximum-size group of stocks with structural balance (i.e., positive edge-sign products for all triplets) and strong pairwise correlations. This balance condition ensures stable relationships, thus facilitating potential hedging opportunities through negative edges. Theoretically, within a random signed graph model, we establish LSCBM’s asymptotic existence, size scaling, and multiplicity under various parameter regimes. To detect LSCBM efficiently, we develop MaxBalanceCore, a heuristic algorithm that leverages network sparsity. Simulations validate its efficiency, demonstrating scalability to networks of up to 10,000 nodes within tens of seconds. Empirical analysis demonstrates that LSCBM identifies core market subsystems that dynamically reorganize in response to economic shifts and crises. In the Chinese stock market (2013–2024), LSCBM’s size surges during high-stress periods (e.g., the 2015 crash) and contracts during stable or fragmented regimes, while its composition rotates annually across dominant sectors (e.g., Industrials and Financials).
  • 详情 A Multilayer Network Approach to Identifying Investors' Echo Chambers in Chinese Stock Forums (Guba)
    This study develops a comprehensive methodological framework for identifying and quantifying investor echo chambers in online stock discussion forums. Motivated by a dynamic model of endogenous echo chamber formation, which formalizes how investors optimally allocate attention and update beliefs under cognitive and informational constraints, we construct a two-layer multiplex investor network that integrates common-attention similarity and semantic similarity to jointly capture the informational and cognitive linkages among investors. This framework enables the systematic examination of how shared information sources and convergent opinions emerge within investor communities. We compute both community-level and individual-level (node-level) echo-chamber intensity by integrating measures of social homophily, semantic reinforcement, and community insularity. At the firm level, we further aggregate these micro-level indicators using attention-weighted indices, community concentration (HHI), and semantic polarization metrics to characterize how echo-chamber dynamics manifest in firm-related discussions. In addition, we propose a general empirical panel framework to examine the relationship between investor echo-chamber intensity and firm-level outcomes. Overall, this paper provides a methodological foundation for the broader Investors’ Echo Chamber Project, offering scalable tools for network-based behavioral analysis and laying the groundwork for future research linking online social dynamics, financial market efficiency, and corporate decision-making.
  • 详情 Reversion Speed in Trading Volume as a Proxy for Informational Efficiency: A Case Study of China
    This study investigates the mean-reversion behavior of trading volume, using China’s A-share market as a representative setting characterized by dispersed retail investors, frequent public disclosures, and active policy interventions. We compare two competing interpretations:the stealth-trading hypothesis, in which persistent volume reflects order-splitting by informed investors, and the informational efficiency hypothesis, which links faster volume reversion to more effective information processing. Using the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) model, we estimate reversion speeds for over 3,000 stocks and relate these to firm- and industry-level characteristics. We find that trading volume is broadly mean-reverting, with over 98% of stocks exhibiting stationarity. The OU model forecasts reversion speed with less than 7% error. Faster reversion is associated with larger firm size, greater analyst coverage, lower volatility, and higher liquidity. Notably, reversion speed increased after accounting reforms but declined following capital access liberalization, suggesting that regulatory policy can both enhance and impair informational efficiency. These findings position reversion speed as an observable proxy for market responsiveness and highlight trading volume as a central variable in empirical market microstructure research.
  • 详情 How Does Artificial Intelligence Affect Total Factor Productivity of Manufacturing Firms? Evidence from the Operational Efficiency Mechanism
    This paper examines how artificial intelligence (AI) adoption influences the total factor productivity (TFP) of Chinese A-share manufacturing firms from 2010 to 2023. Results show that AI significantly raises TFP, robust across multiple specifications and instrumental variable tests. AI also boosts operational efficiency by accelerating accounts receivable and inventory turnover, revealing a “technology–operation–productivity” pathway. The positive effect is stronger in regions with better digital infrastructure and in firms with stronger governance. The findings provide fresh evidence on AI’s productivity effects and offer policy implications for intelligent transformation and high-quality manufacturing development.
  • 详情 Optimizing Tourism Resource Allocation Efficiency and Pathways to High-Quality Development in the Age of Artificial Intelligence
    In the context of digital transformation, artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a pivotal driver for enhancing tourism resource allocation efficiency and promoting the high-quality development of the tourism industry. Grounded in the Technology–Organization–Environment (TOE) framework, this study constructs a multidimensional indicator system by integrating heterogeneous data sources, including Baidu search indices, corporate annual reports, and policy documents. Using a balanced panel dataset covering 31 provincial-level regions in China from 2015 to 2023, we empirically examine the mechanisms through which AI penetration affects the efficiency of tourism resource allocation. The super-efficiency SBM-DEA model is employed to measure allocation efficiency, while the spatial Durbin model (SDM) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) are used to identify spatial spillover effects and regional heterogeneity. Furthermore, tourist satisfaction is quantified using a natural language processing (NLP)-based sentiment index derived from online reviews. The results indicate that AI penetration significantly improves tourism resource allocation efficiency, with stronger effects observed in regions with advanced technological infrastructure. Smart tourism pilot policies demonstrate significant spatial spillover effects, positively influencing scenic areas within a 100-kilometer radius. However, diminishing marginal returns are evident, highlighting capacity absorption thresholds and institutional constraints. Based on the empirical findings, the study proposes targeted policy recommendations, including the establishment of provincial tourism data hubs, promotion of AI toolkit systems, enhancement of scenic area evaluation mechanisms, and reinforcement of collaborative governance between government and enterprises. These insights aim to provide both theoretical and practical guidance for the intelligent transformation and coordinated regional development of China’s tourism industry.
  • 详情 Spillover Effects of Information Efficiency on Carbon Markets: Evidence from the National Carbon Emissions Trading System
    This study examines the evolution and spillover effects of informational efficiency across carbon markets following the launch of China ’s national carbon emissions trading system (NCET). Using a time-varying parameter VAR model, we analyze efficiency transmission among the National Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA), six China’s pilot markets, and the European Union Allowances (EUA). The results reveal substantial heterogeneity in efficiency dynamics. Since early 2023, the CEA and Shenzhen have shown improved efficiency and stability, while the EUA and other pilot markets have experienced declines in efficiency and increased volatility. Despite progress in domestic markets’ efficiency, the EUA remains the primary source of efficiency spillover effects, followed by the CEA, Shenzhen, and Beijing, whereas other pilot markets—particularly Shanghai—act mainly as net recipients. Spillover intensity increases significantly during major regulatory periods, especially around China’s annual “Two Sessions,” highlighting the influence of policy signals on market linkages. These findings offer empirical insights into the time-varying transmission of efficiency under institutional reform and inform the coordinated design of carbon trading policies.
  • 详情 More words, less efficiency? Text information disclosure and resource allocation efficiency under China's registration system
    Strengthening disclosure regulation and improving disclosure quality are central to China's transition to a full registration system and crucial for preventing capital market risks. Using prospectuses disclosed by IPOs on the STAR Market, ChiNext, and the Beijing Stock Exchange from 2019 to 2023, this study constructs four textual indicators from prospectuses—length, sentence complexity, technical term density, and uncertainty—and examines how they affect resource allocation efficiency under the registration system. We find that text length and sentence complexity improve resource allocation efficiency, consistent with an information effectiveness effect. In contrast, technical term density and uncertainty reduce efficiency, reflecting information redundancy. Further analysis shows that the registration system reform enhances the comprehensiveness and complexity of disclosures, but its net effect on efficiency depends on the balance between information effectiveness and redundancy. This study contributes to the international literature on “institutional environment—disclosure—resource allocation” with evidence from an emerging market, while also extending theories of information asymmetry and impression management. Our findings support Chinese regulators in optimizing prospectus standards and strengthening review oversight, and provide policy insights for other emerging markets seeking to improve capital allocation through more effective disclosure design.
  • 详情 Beyond Price Co-Movement: Market Efficiency Multiscale and Heterogeneous Transmission in the Petrochemical Futures Chain
    This study uses Shanghai Crude Oil Futures (SC) as a proxy for the upstream segment of China’s petrochemical industry and investigates how its market efficiency influences five key downstream product markets. Considering that markets differ in how they absorb information and in their structural features, we employ the Feasible Exact Local Whittle (FELW) estimator to construct a continuous market efficiency index. To capture efficiency dynamics across different time horizons, the study applies the Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform (MODWT) to decompose the efficiency series into short-, medium-, and long-term components. These are then examined by Quantile-on-Quantile (QQ) regression to trace the varying marginal effects across different efficiency states. The results reveal strong state dependence and structural differences in the efficiency transmission from SC to downstream markets. Among the five markets, Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil and Asphalt exhibit the most stable transmission patterns, with the former showing a “saddle-shaped” structure and the latter following a “dual-path” pattern. In contrast, the links between SC and the markets for Linear Low-Density Polyethylene and Polypropylene are highly nonlinear and less predictable. Purified Terephthalic Acid demonstrates a dual mechanism of efficiency resonance and long-term anchoring. These findings deepen our understanding of information efficiency within industrial value chains. They also offer practical insights for managing market risk, guiding price policies, and designing regulatory frameworks in the energy sector.
  • 详情 Corporate Sustainability and Sustainable Investing’s Alpha: An Empirical Study of China A-share Market
    In view of the divergence of existing research results on the relationship between ESG and investment returns, this paper constructs an S-score metric, which comprehensively measures corporate sustainability performance. It further tests the applicability of a sustainability-based investment strategy using this metric in China's A-share market. Using Shanghai and Shenzhen A-shares from May 2016 to April 2024 as the research sample, the S-score is constructed across five dimensions: Profitability, Growth Opportunities, Investment Efficiency, Risk Mitigation, and ESG Performance. The S-score is calculated using Z-score standardization and entropy weighted. Strategy effectiveness was tested through univariate grouping, bivariate grouping, and Fama-Macbeth regression, further examining strategy performance under varying market conditions, holding periods, and information environments. The study finds that the S-score demonstrates significant discriminative power for cross-sectional stock returns. The hedge portfolio based on this metric achieved an annualized excess return of 7.943% after adjusting for the China three-factor (CH-3) model. Its predictive power remains robust after controlling for variables such as market capitalization and book-to-market ratio, delivering significant positive returns across bull and bear markets, extreme pandemic conditions, and holding periods of up to eight years. From a behavioral finance perspective, this paper reveals that explanations such as the gradual diffusion of information and investors' limited attention span help elucidate the profitability of the S-score strategy. The findings demonstrate the effectiveness of Sustainable Investing strategies in China's A-share market, indicating that ESG-integrated factor investing can optimize resource allocation. This research contributes empirical evidence on Sustainable Investing in emerging markets, providing insights for policy formulation and practical implementation while supporting the virtuous cycle between Sustainable Investing and long-termism.