This paper examines the impact of green mergers and acquisitions (M&As) on firms’ transition to green exports. We develop a “Technology-Qualification” theoretical framework and conduct the empirical analysis using a matched dataset of Chinese listed manufacturing firms and customs records. The findings show that green M&As significantly promote firms’ green exports, and this effect remains consistent across a series of robustness test. Mechanism analysis reveals that green M&As promote green exports through two key channels: green innovation spillovers and green qualification spillovers. Further heterogeneity analysis indicates that the positive impact of green M&As on green exports is more pronounced among firms with stronger operational performance, weaker green foundations, and those involved in processing trade. In addition, green M&As not only stimulate green exports but also prevent the entry of polluting products and reduce the exit of green product, thereby driving a green-oriented dynamic restructuring of firms’ export structure. This paper offers micro-level insights into how firms can navigate the dual challenges of enhancing green production capabilities and overcoming barriers to green trade during their transition to green exports.

In the late 1980s, Mexico opened itself to international trade and foreign investment, followed in the early 1990s by China. China and Mexico are still the two countries characterized as middle-income by the World Bank with the highest levels of merchandise exports. Although their measures of openness have been comparable, these two countries have had sharply different economic performances: China has achieved spectacular growth, whereas Mexico’s growth has been disappointingly modest. In this article, we extend the analysis of Kehoe and Ruhl (2010) to account for the differences in these experiences. We show that China opened its economy while it was still achieving rapid growth from shifting employment out of agriculture and into manufacturing while Mexico opened long after its comparable phase of structural transformation. China is only now catching up with Mexico in terms of GDP per working-age person, and it still lags behind in terms of the fraction of its population engaged in agriculture. Furthermore, we argue that China has been able to move up a ladder of quality and technological sophistication in the composition of its exports and production, while Mexico seems to be stuck exporting a fixed set of products to its North American neighbors.

The literature has extensively explored the relationship between trade and envi-ronment, with most studies focusing on how trade affects the environment. However, our research takes a different approach by examining how air pollution affects firms’ exports. We use Chinese export and pollution data from 2000 to 2007 at the firm and county levels. By using fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations as a proxy for air pollution and employing thermal inversion as an instrumental variable, we ffnd that a 1% increase in PM2.5 leads to a 0.89% reduction in firms’ exports. We also observe this negative effect of air pollution on entry and exit (i.e., extensive margins). Our mechanism analysis identiffes two channels through which air pollution affects exports. First, air pollution decreases exports by reducing firm productivity. Second, air pollution induces stringent environmental regulations, which reduces exports as firms need to increase abatement costs or reduce production to meet the environment standards.

This paper studies the evolution of China's production and trade patterns during its integration into the global economy. We document and explain new facts concerning changes in production and exports at the industry and firm levels using microdata and a quantitative Ricardian and Heckscher–Ohlin model with heterogeneous firms. Counterfactual simulations reveal that capital deepening made China's production and exports more capital-intensive, although labor-biased productivity growth acted as a counterforce. Consistent with the data, our model demonstrates that China's trade openness peaked around the mid-2000s and fell until the 2020s, while the world's exposure to Chinese exports rose continuously.

Chinese enterprises are currently facing unprecedented economic transformations accompanied by a diverse array of challenges. This article delves into these challenges and provides management recommendations to assist companies in addressing these pressing issues. First, China's economic growth is gradually slowing, prompting companies to explore new avenues for growth, such as diversifying their products and markets, enhancing research and development, and expanding into emerging markets. Second, the uncertain global trade landscape has impacted exports and supply chains, necessitating diversified supply chains, new trade partnerships, and proactive strategies to navigate potential trade policy changes. Additionally, the pressure of technological innovation cannot be underestimated, urging companies to increase R&D investment, collaborate with other enterprises on research, and recruit and nurture high-quality tech talent. Furthermore, with the Chinese government's growing focus on environmental concerns, companies need to invest in clean production technologies, build sustainable supply chains, and actively fulfill their social responsibilities. Other challenges including rising labor costs, intellectual property protection, financial risks, regulatory compliance, talent recruitment and retention, and digital transformation all require proactive responses. By adopting proactive management strategies, Chinese enterprises can thrive in this era filled with both opportunities and risks, achieving sustainable growth and enhanced competitiveness.

We study the consequences of market uncertainty on international trade. An increase in foreign market uncertainty dampens China's aggregate exports on both the extensive and intensive margins. The adverse effects are more pronounced in industries facing tighter financial constraints than in others. We propose a dynamic trade model to explain the facts. Greater uncertainty depresses a firm's expected value of exporting and borrowing capacity, leading to fewer exporters and a smaller average size of exports. Under calibrated parameters, the uncertainty shock accounts for a sizable fraction of China's trade collapse in the 2008 financial crisis and the recent trade war.

We examine the impact of renminbi revaluation on foreign firm valuations, considering two surprise announcements of changes in China’s exchange rate policy in 2005 and 2010 and employing data on some 6,000 firms in 44 economies. Stock returns rise with renminbi revaluation expectations. This reaction appears to reflect a combination of improvements in general market sentiment and specific trade effects. Expected renminbi appreciation has a positive effect on firms exporting to China but a negative impact on those providing inputs for the country’s processing exports. Stock prices rise for firms competing with China in their home market but fall for firms importing Chinese products with large imported-input content. There is also some evidence that expected renminbi appreciation reduces the valuation of financially-constrained firms, presumably because appreciation implies reduced Chinese purchases of foreign securities. The results carry over when we consider ten instances of market-perceived changes in prospective Chinese currency policy.

This paper examines the impact of renminbi revaluation on foreign firm valuation and, by implication, firm prospects. To deal with the potential endogeneity of exchange rate movements, we consider not just official announcements of exchange rate policy but also 27 instances of market-perceived changes in China’s currency policy driven by domestic or foreign political pressure. Using information on 12,300 firms in 44 countries, we find that stock returns increased with renminbi revaluation expectations. This reaction was related as much to improved market sentiment as to specific trade channels, however. In terms of trade channels, we find that expectations of renminbi appreciation reduce the relative stock returns of firms providing components and raw materials to China as inputs for the country’s exports. There is also some evidence that expectations of renminbi appreciation reduce the stock prices of financiallyconstrained firms.

This paper examines the impact of renminbi revaluation on foreign firm valuation and, by implication, firm prospects. To deal with the potential endogeneity of exchange rate movements, we consider not just official announcements of exchange rate policy but also 27 instances of market-perceived changes in China’s currency policy driven by domestic or foreign political pressure. Using information on 12,300 firms in 44 countries, we find that stock returns increased with renminbi revaluation expectations. This reaction was related as much to improved market sentiment as to specific trade channels, however. In terms of trade channels, we find that expectations of renminbi appreciation reduce the relative stock returns of firms providing components and raw materials to China as inputs for the country’s exports. There is also some evidence that expectations of renminbi appreciation reduce the stock prices of financiallyconstrained firms.

he paper assesses the vulnerability of China to external shocks via the indirect negative effect of a slow-down in exports on domestic demand for investment. In the last decade China has increased its dependence on external demand, particularly from the advanced countries; at the same time it has become a primary destination market for goods produced in the rest of emerging Asia. Since 2001 investment expenditures have represented a key driver of Chinese GDP growth; as a very large share of activity in the manufacturing sector is export oriented, we expect fixed capital investment in this sector to be highly related to exports. Overcoming serious shortcomings in available data, we estimate an investment equation for the period 1993-2006 and find an elasticity of investment to exports in the manufacturing sector in the range between 0.9 and 1. Taking into account the dominant contribution of capital accumulation to Chinese GDP growth, we conclude that the growth effects of an external demand shock could become significant when taking into account the domestic investment channel.