informed trading

  • 详情 Political Network and Muted Insider Trading
    This paper explores the impact of political network on insider trading activities in China. We find that stronger political network discourages insider trading. Such effect is more pronounced among long-standing and high-level connections, and persists in the events of M&A and public policy announcement when insiders may make profitable informed trading. This finding points to new cost of being politically connected. In exploring the underlying mechanisms, we confirm that the muted insider trading is related to preferable financial and policy support, and are more pronounced for SOEs in provinces with stronger market force and legal enforcement.
  • 详情 Informed Trading by Mutual Funds after Private Placement: Evidence from China
    We examine the information content of changes in shareholdings after private issuance of public equity (PIPE) by mutual funds that participate in PIPEs in China. The results show that the changes in shareholdings is positively related to alpha and cumulative abnormal return (CAR) for PIPE issuers with high information asymmetry, suggesting that the participating mutual funds have superior information. These results are robust after controlling for investment skill, geographic location, and alumni relation. The positive relation between shareholding change and information content is driven by PIPE issuers with weaker corporate governance. In addition, the positive relation is stronger when the placement discount is lower. These results are consistent with a hypothesis that controlling shareholders/management in Chinese PIPE firms may collude with mutual funds to do tunneling.
  • 详情 The Information Content of Option Trading: Evidence from AH cross-listing index and stocks
    This paper uses high frequency option data to investigate the information content of option trading of AH cross listed stocks (A-shares traded in mainland China and H-shares traded in Hong Kong) and the role of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Connect in this issue. Measuring the informed trading with order imbalance, we find that the order imbalance of stock options traded in Hong Kong contains incremental information that predicts the return of corresponding A-shares traded in Shanghai after controlling for the cross-market return and volume factors proposed by Gagnon and Karolyi (2009). More important, this predictive power strengthens after the Shanghai-Hong Kong Connect, which is also supported by the evidence of comparison between the two stock crashes exactly before and after the connection. During the 2015 stock crash, the spillover effect of the two markets is significantly stronger than that during the 2008 financial crisis.
  • 详情 Does options trading convey information on futures prices?
    This paper studies the presence of informed trading in Taiwan stock index options (TXO) and analyzes the informational role of foreign institutions in incorporating information into Taiwan stock index futures (TX). We have found that only the option-induced part (OOI) of the total TX order imbalance can predict future TX prices, and the OOI calculated from open-buy TXO, defined by Ni et al. (2008), provides incremental predictability. This finding shows that the price predictability stems from the information flow resulting from option transactions rather than from liquidity pressure. We conclude further that option transactions from foreign institutions provide the most significant predictability, out-of-the-money option transactions in particular. These empirical results show that option transactions conducted by foreign institutions have played the primary role in conveying the information inherent in the TXO market to the TX market, foreign institutions being delta-informed traders. Retail investors, the major players in both the TXO and TX markets, have done almost nothing of significance with regard to TXO information transmission into the TX market, with the exception of some near-the-money and out-of-the-money options.
  • 详情 Margin Regulation and Informed Trading: Evidence from China
    Using the introduction of margin trading in China, this study examines the effects of margin trading on the informativeness of trades and stock market liquidity. Using the methodology of Hasbrouck (1991 and 1993), I find that allowing investors to trade on margin leads to more informed trading. This increase in informed trading is mirrored by an increase in the adverse selection component of the bid-ask spread and a decrease in the relative weight placed on public information in trading decision. The discussed findings are more pronounced for stocks with relatively high levels of margin trading. Overall, the findings in the paper suggest that margin trading may lead to more information-based trading and lower levels of stock market liquidity.
  • 详情 Liquidity Premium and Informational Efficiency as the Determinants of Capital Structu
    In this paper we study how a firm’s capital structure choice affects informed trading of its securities in the secondary markets and consequently, the information efficiency of its security prices. We identify two new factors as the potential determinants of the firm’s optimal capital structure policy: the liquidity premium caused by informed trading and, perhaps more importantly, the improved operating efficiency due to information revelation from its security prices. We show that, from these two perspectives, the optimal debt level is achieved at the point where there is no informed trading in the bond market and the informed traders are just about to trade in the bond market. Thus, the cost of debt financing differs in nature from that of the existing models. This has very different implications for the significance of the cost of debt financing and for financial system design. Our model can also explain the relative trading volumes in debt and equity markets.
  • 详情 The Behavior of Uninformed Investors and Time-Varying Informed Trading Activities
    Building upon the seminal work of Easley, Kiefer, O’Hara and Paperman (1996), we develop a framework to investigate the relationship between the behavior of uninformed investors and the time-varying informed trading activities. We allow the arrival rates for uninformed traders to follow a Markov switching process where the transition probabilities depend on market fundamentals. Informed traders may match the level of the uninformed arrival rate with certain probability so as to make better use of the camouflage provided by the uninformed transactions. Our empirical estimation of NYSE stocks shows that the uninformed transition probabilities are indeed time-varying, so is the probability of information content. The estimated probability of information content predicts the opening, median and closing spreads. There is evidence that uninformed investors exhibit momentum chasing and “noise herding” behavior. There is also a positive “market spillover” effect in the uninformed trading activities. We find that the “clustering” of trading activities by uninformed and informed traders seem to be more likely on low volume days, and the uninformed trading activities are responsible for most of the stock trading volatilities.