informed trading

  • 详情 The Liquidity Risk Channel of the Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle: Evidence from China
    This study integrates microstructure theory with asset pricing to investigates how the idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) puzzle operates through specialized liquidity risk channels in China’s A-shares market. We employ intraday transactions data to perform a novel decomposition of liquidity into its variable (informational) and fixed (transitory) components. We show that the anomalous negative relationship between IVOL and future returns emerges from the intricate interaction of liquidity risk exposure, information and arbitrage constraints, and measurement biases. Specifically, the variable component tied to informed trading and adverse selection exposes high-IVOL stocks to greater arbitrage risk during liquidity shocks, while the fixed component exacerbates their vulnerability to short-term market-making cost fluctuations. Our results reveal that the IVOL puzzle is not a statistical artifact but a rational pricing phenomenon driven by omitted liquidity risk, mediated by the country’s unique institutional environment and monetary conditions.
  • 详情 Informative salient signal loss and stock return volatility
    We investigate how the loss of informative salient signals in financial markets influences stock return volatility, using the 2024 intraday disclosure reform of the mainland China-Hong Kong Stock Connect program as a natural experiment. The reform eliminated the real-time disclosure of northbound capital (NC) flows on trading platforms, rendering NC trading information invisible to Chinese investors during market hours. We find that the removal of NC signals induces increased investor belief dispersion and intensifies informed trading, thereby amplifying intraday volatility in NC-eligible stocks. Moreover, this effect is more pronounced for stocks with higher investor attention, indicating that attentive investors suffer stronger anchor loss when NC signals disappear. In contrast, lottery-type stocks and stocks with alternative NC trading clues exhibit weaker volatility responses, since the presence of strong alternative signals reduces the effect of NC signal loss. These findings highlight the informational role of insightful salient signals in stabilizing stock returns.
  • 详情 The More You See, The Less You Agree: Corporate Transparency and Disagreement
    Traditional information asymmetry theories suggest that greater corporate transparency should reduce investor disagreement. Using Chinese mutual fund holdings, we document the opposite pattern: transparency amplifies disagreement among institutional investors. Mechanism tests show that transparency discourages herding while intensifying private information acquisition among fund managers. The effect is stronger for growth-oriented and high-skill funds, and during periods of elevated market sentiment, and among firms with lower credibility, excessive disclosure frequency, and greater investor attention. Further analysis indicates that this transparency-induced disagreement stems from informed trading rather than noise, thereby enhancing price informativeness and market efficiency. Overall, the evidence reveals the dual nature of transparency as both an informational input and a behavioral catalyst that increases disagreement in financial markets.
  • 详情 Hedge Fund Shadow Trading: Evidence from Corporate Bankruptcies
    Serving on the official unsecured creditors' committee (UCC) of a bankrupt firm provides hedge funds with access to material nonpublic information (MNPI), which can facilitate their informed trading across firms and asset markets. We find that hedge funds increase equity turnover and execute more large trades in the quarters following UCC membership. In contrast, hedge funds do not exhibit such trading behavior after accessing public information about bankrupt firms or holding the bankrupt firm's debt without committee involvement. Importantly, these large trades often target firms with close economic ties to the bankrupt entity. Returns from these MNPI-driven trades are substantial.
  • 详情 Pricing Liquidity Under Preference Uncertainty: The Role of Heterogeneously Informed Traders
    This study highlights asymmetries in liquidity risk pricing from the perspective of heterogeneously informed traders facing changing levels of preference uncertainty. We hypothesize that higher illiquidity premium and liquidity risk betas may arise simultaneously in circumstances where investors are asymmetrically informed about their trading counterparts’ preferences and their financial firms’ timely valuations of assets . We first test the time-varying state transition patterns of IML, a traded liquidity factor of the return premium on illiquid-minus-liquid stocks, using a Markov regime-switching framework. We then investigate how the conditional price of the systematic risk of the IML fluctuate over time subject to changing levels of preference uncertainty. Empirical results from the Chinese stock market support our hypotheses that investors’ sensitivity to the IML systematic risk conditionally increase in times of higher preference uncertainty as proxied by the stock turnover and order imbalance. Further policy impact analyses suggest that China’s market liberalization efforts, contingent upon its recent stock connect and margin trading programs, reduce the conditional price of liquidity risk for affected stocks by helping the incorporation of information into stock prices more efficiently. Tighter macroeconomic funding conditions, on the contrary, conditionally increase the price of liquidity that investors require.
  • 详情 Political Network and Muted Insider Trading
    This paper explores the impact of political network on insider trading activities in China. We find that stronger political network discourages insider trading. Such effect is more pronounced among long-standing and high-level connections, and persists in the events of M&A and public policy announcement when insiders may make profitable informed trading. This finding points to new cost of being politically connected. In exploring the underlying mechanisms, we confirm that the muted insider trading is related to preferable financial and policy support, and are more pronounced for SOEs in provinces with stronger market force and legal enforcement.
  • 详情 Informed Trading by Mutual Funds after Private Placement: Evidence from China
    We examine the information content of changes in shareholdings after private issuance of public equity (PIPE) by mutual funds that participate in PIPEs in China. The results show that the changes in shareholdings is positively related to alpha and cumulative abnormal return (CAR) for PIPE issuers with high information asymmetry, suggesting that the participating mutual funds have superior information. These results are robust after controlling for investment skill, geographic location, and alumni relation. The positive relation between shareholding change and information content is driven by PIPE issuers with weaker corporate governance. In addition, the positive relation is stronger when the placement discount is lower. These results are consistent with a hypothesis that controlling shareholders/management in Chinese PIPE firms may collude with mutual funds to do tunneling.
  • 详情 The Information Content of Option Trading: Evidence from AH cross-listing index and stocks
    This paper uses high frequency option data to investigate the information content of option trading of AH cross listed stocks (A-shares traded in mainland China and H-shares traded in Hong Kong) and the role of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Connect in this issue. Measuring the informed trading with order imbalance, we find that the order imbalance of stock options traded in Hong Kong contains incremental information that predicts the return of corresponding A-shares traded in Shanghai after controlling for the cross-market return and volume factors proposed by Gagnon and Karolyi (2009). More important, this predictive power strengthens after the Shanghai-Hong Kong Connect, which is also supported by the evidence of comparison between the two stock crashes exactly before and after the connection. During the 2015 stock crash, the spillover effect of the two markets is significantly stronger than that during the 2008 financial crisis.
  • 详情 Does options trading convey information on futures prices?
    This paper studies the presence of informed trading in Taiwan stock index options (TXO) and analyzes the informational role of foreign institutions in incorporating information into Taiwan stock index futures (TX). We have found that only the option-induced part (OOI) of the total TX order imbalance can predict future TX prices, and the OOI calculated from open-buy TXO, defined by Ni et al. (2008), provides incremental predictability. This finding shows that the price predictability stems from the information flow resulting from option transactions rather than from liquidity pressure. We conclude further that option transactions from foreign institutions provide the most significant predictability, out-of-the-money option transactions in particular. These empirical results show that option transactions conducted by foreign institutions have played the primary role in conveying the information inherent in the TXO market to the TX market, foreign institutions being delta-informed traders. Retail investors, the major players in both the TXO and TX markets, have done almost nothing of significance with regard to TXO information transmission into the TX market, with the exception of some near-the-money and out-of-the-money options.
  • 详情 Margin Regulation and Informed Trading: Evidence from China
    Using the introduction of margin trading in China, this study examines the effects of margin trading on the informativeness of trades and stock market liquidity. Using the methodology of Hasbrouck (1991 and 1993), I find that allowing investors to trade on margin leads to more informed trading. This increase in informed trading is mirrored by an increase in the adverse selection component of the bid-ask spread and a decrease in the relative weight placed on public information in trading decision. The discussed findings are more pronounced for stocks with relatively high levels of margin trading. Overall, the findings in the paper suggest that margin trading may lead to more information-based trading and lower levels of stock market liquidity.