详情
The Growth of Global Equity Markets: A Closer Look
This paper examines both the time series and cross-country patterns in the development of
stock markets around the world. It adopts a flexible modeling framework that allows for the
breakdown of changes in equity market capitalization into changes in macroeconomic and financial
fundamentals, shifts in valuation technology and market sentiment, and improvement in valuation
efficiency. Using panel data on 32 countries, I show that for developed countries, the size of their
equity markets is positively related to the correlation of these markets with the global portfolio, and
is negatively related to government consumption. For developing countries, the level of financial
intermediary development and openness to trade are found to be conducive to the development of
local equity markets. For given levels of market fundamentals, developed countries with greater
economic freedom and stronger shareholder protections are associated with more highly valued
equity markets, while the French or German civil law countries and countries with insider trading
legislation tend to have relatively poorly valued equity markets. For developing countries, ceteris
paribus, high quality of accounting standards is found to be associated with higher valuation of
their equity markets. I find that only equities in emerging markets become more highly valued,
indicating an improvement in valuation efficiency over time. Australia, Canada, the United States,
Hong Kong, and Singapore have the most highly valued equity markets in the developed world,
while Malaysia has the mostly highly valued equity market in the developing world. It appears
that favorable shifts in valuation technology and market sentiment contribute the lion’s share of
the growth of global equity markets.