Exploiting China’s 300 billion RMB Special Central Bank Lending Facility for the Clean and Efficient Use of Coal as a quasi-natural experiment across 12,816 firm-year observations from 2018 to 2023, we show that subsidized transition credit increased targeted coal and thermal power firms’ aggregate carbon emissions by 14.18 log points. We establish this backfire as a Financial Jevons Paradox, whereby credit-induced scale expansion overwhelms unit efficiency gains. Although the facility raised total factor productivity and stabilized emission in-tensity, it lowered debt costs, expanded bank loans, and induced production-biased patenting, proving that transition finance requires binding aggregate emission caps.

Households form beliefs by recalling past experiences, but recall is context dependent. Variation in contexts alone can therefore generate non-fundamental disagreement. A stylized model à la Wachter and Kahana (2024) illustrates this cognitive source of disagreement. When combined with salience-based frictions in memory encoding, context-dependent recall also generates testable predictions for belief skewness. Using weather as a contextual cue that triggers the recall of past shopping experiences, I construct a measure of memory-based household inflation disagreement in the U.S. and show that it explains survey-based disagreement, with stronger effects in unusual contexts, and predicts greater belief skewness. The memory effect is distinct from experience and mood effects and generalizes across countries and outcome domains. Finally, memory-based disagreement weakens monetary policy transmission by attenuating intended consumption responses.

The global financial system is currently navigating a profound transformation driven by digitalization and the rise of decentralized financial innovations. In response, central banks are increasingly exploring or implementing Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) as a sovereign digital evolution of fiat money. This study investigates the dual nature of CBDCs, evaluating whether they represent a strategic opportunity to modernize the economy or a systemic threat to existing financial stability. Employing a qualitative methodology, the research analyzes official policy frameworks from the IMF and BIS alongside diverse real-world case studies, including China’s e-CNY, the Bahamas’ Sand Dollar, Nigeria’s eNaira, and the European Central Bank’s Digital Euro. The findings suggest that while CBDCs offer significant benefits—such as enhanced payment efficiency, reduced transaction costs, and improved financial inclusion—they also introduce critical risks. These include the potential disintermediation of commercial banks, heightened cybersecurity vulnerabilities, and concerns regarding individual data privacy and government surveillance. The study concludes that the successful integration of CBDCs is not merely a technical challenge but a social and strategic one. Adoption is heavily dependent on infrastructure, digital literacy, and public trust. Ultimately, the research highlights that there is no "one-size-fits-all" model; the future of money will be shaped by how effectively individual nations balance technological innovation with the preservation of financial architecture.

The robustness of the securities market is a necessary condition for ensuring the stable operation of the financial market, and stock price fluctuations have always been a major concern for academia and investors. One of the main influencing factors of stock price fluctuations is macroeconomic monetary policy. As one of the important control tools of macroeconomic monetary policy, the impact of benchmark interest rates on stock price fluctuations cannot be ignored. This paper takes Chinese A-shares as the research object, analyzes the impact of benchmark interest rate changes on stock price fluctuations, and further introduces investor sentiment as a mediating variable to analyze its role in the transmission process of monetary policy. This paper selects monthly data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2018 to 2024 and conducts empirical tests by constructing direct effect models and mediating effect models. The research results show that: First, benchmark interest rates have a significant negative impact on stock price fluctuations; second, benchmark interest rates can indirectly affect stock price fluctuations by influencing investor sentiment, with investor sentiment playing a partial mediating role. The research conclusions of this paper help to deepen the understanding of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy's impact on securities prices, and provide micro-evidence for monetary policymakers to assess the impact of policy adjustments on capital market stability, while also providing a reference for investors to understand the risk characteristics of the securities market under changes in the interest rate environment.

In this paper, we design two chapters to discuss trade dynamics with heterogeneous fluctuations, contributing new insights to macroeconomic issues related to international trade. In the first chapter, we model general exchange rate fluctuations through stochastic processes and analyze the impact of heterogeneous price shocks on export competitiveness. We find that monetary policy and innovation both show positive effects on export trade, while monetary policy stabilizes exchange rate fluctuations to comprehensively boost provincial export competitiveness, innovation reduces its reliance on exchange rate mechanisms. The optimal policy according to exchange rate fluctuations aims to solve the wealth distribution of exporters, and it suggests that optimal policy should promote dynamic transitions in trade patterns rather than maintain existing comparative advantages in heterogeneous trade structures. In the second chapter, we model labor market fluctuations and the ability to utilize production factors through stochastic processes, and we analyze the impact of heterogeneous aggregate production shocks on general international trade. We find that labor market fluctuations only benefit international trade under the cooperation policy. Moreover, for both sanction and cooperation policy scenarios, positive shocks (i.e., shocks where average wage growth in the labor market exceeds unemployment) strengthen their impact on import trade while weakening their impact on export trade, and vice versa. Regarding the theories proposed in these two chapters, we prove them through empirical analyses using the provincial data of China.

Economic policy uncertainty is a key determinant of exchange rate stability. This study investigates the impact of China's categorical economic policy uncertainties on the long-term correlation between onshore (CNY) and offshore (CNH) Renminbi (RMB) exchange rates. We find that fiscal policy uncertainty (FPU), monetary policy uncertainty (MPU), and exchange rate and capital account uncertainty (EXRPU) have a significant negative effect on this correlation, while trade policy uncertainty (TPU) has no significant impact. Furthermore, CNY and CNH do not effectively diversify risks and provide only limited hedging benefits.

This study examines how firm-specific characteristics and monetary tightening influence the composition and dynamics of trade credit received by Chinese listed firms. Using panel data, the analysis distinguishes among three sources of trade credit: related parties, non-related parties, and controlling shareholders. The findings reveal a clear asymmetry in firms’ financing responses to monetary tightening: while trade credit from non-related parties declines, credit from related parties—especially controlling shareholders—increases. This underscores the strategic role of intra-group financing in buffering firms against external financial shocks during periods of constrained liquidity. Moreover, firm-specific factors such as size, profitability, market power, and ownership have differing effects depending on the source of trade credit. These effects are most pronounced when the credit is extended from controlling shareholders, reflecting the influence of intra-group trust and reduced information asymmetries. The results also highlight a substitute relationship between bank credit and trade credit, which weakens when trade credit is sourced from related parties and disappears entirely in the case of controlling shareholders. By shedding light on the distinct mechanisms of intra-group trade credit in China’s underdeveloped financial system, this study contributes to a deeper understanding of corporate financing strategies of Chinese firms.

Central bank digital currency (CBDC) is intended to boost financial inclusion and limit threats to bank stability posed by private cryptocurrencies. Our study examines the impact of implementing CBDC on the bank stability of two countries in Asia and the Pacific, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India, that initiated research on CBDC within the last ten years (2013 to 2022). We construct a bank stability index by utilizing five dimensions, namely capital adequacy, profitability, asset quality, liquidity, and efficiency, using a novel “benefit-of-the-doubt” approach. Employing panel estimation techniques, we find a significant positive impact of adopting CBDC on bank stability and a moderating role of monetary policy. We also find that the effect is greater in India, a lower-middle-income country, than in the PRC, an upper-middle-income nation. We conclude that by taking an accommodative monetary policy stance, adopting CBDC favors bank stability. We confirm our results with various robustness tests by introducing proxies for bank stability and other model specifications. Our findings underscore the potential of adopting CBDC, when carefully managed alongside appropriate monetary policy, for enhancing bank or overall financial stability.

Existing literature has demonstrated the aggregation and allocation effects of the corporate holding financial institutions on financial resources, but there is little literature to discuss whether it will further affect corporate employment. Therefore, this paper uses data from China's A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2021 to examine whether holding financial institutions can affect corporate employment, thus serving the real economy. Empirical results show that holding financial institutions significantly expands corporate employment, which is pronounced in periods of tight monetary policy, in financially underdeveloped areas, and for enterprises with high financing constraints, weak external supervision, and high labor intensity. The conclusion still holds after conducting a series of robustness tests. Mechanism tests show that holding financial institutions can expand corporate employment by alleviating liquidity constraints and inhibiting the dissipation of internal funds caused by agency problems. Further discussion also shows that holding financial institutions has significantly improved corporate operating performance and increased the salary levels of executives and ordinary employees, which means that there is no “executive plunder” after profit increases; Meanwhile, holding financial institutions generates spillover effects along the supply chain, expanding corporate employment among major suppliers and customers. This paper has important implications for taking measures related to “finance serves for the real economy” to achieve high-quality economic development.

The U.S. Treasury yields reached a 20-year high under acute inflation pressure in the post-pandemic era amid aggravated geopolitical conflicts. To quantify the underlying effects of regional geopolitical risks (GPRs) of key U.S. strategic interests, we employ an extended affine term structure model with unspanned GPRs and conventional macroeconomic drivers. We find that GPR shocks, particularly those manifesting U.S.-China rivalry, contribute more to expectations and variations of inflation and yields than shocks to U.S. macroeconomic variables. The results warn on the adequacy of monetary policy in curbing inflation in a fragmented global order with escalating GPRs.