This study examines how market sentiment affects the price impact of mutual funds' herding behavior in the Chinese A-share market, and further explores its connection to the momentum effect. Our evidence shows that mutual fund herding predicts future stock returns only when market sentiment is high. During such periods, stocks heavily bought by mutual funds outperform those heavily sold by mutual funds by 7% in the next six months, with no strong reversal thereafter. This pattern disappears under low sentiment. Building on these findings, we develop a profitable momentum strategy in the Chinese A-share market—where conventional momentum strategies typically fail—by focusing on stocks actively traded by mutual funds. The excess returns of this strategy are concentrated in high-sentiment periods, and additional evidence suggests that mutual fund herding behavior plays an important role in determining whether stock price momentum persists.

Chinese mutual fund managers are required to file quarterly commentaries that mix fund-specific performance/strategy discussions with broader macroeconomic commentary, alongside financial statements. Using FinBERT Model, we decompose these narratives into substantive discussions (fund-specific) and general discussions (macro) and measure strategic messaging by the relative tone of substantive discussions to general discussions. We then analyze how such strategic narratives affect investor behavior. We posit two channels through which relative tone could affect subsequent fund flows: information revelation or strategic tone management. Using 64,810 fund-quarter observations (2008–2022), we find that a one-standard-deviation increase in optimistic relative tone predicts a 0.98% rise in subsequent fund flows—about 25.36% of the effect of prior-quarter performance. Results hold in difference-in-difference analyses, using fund manager-turnover as identification. The flow effect is stronger for funds with superior past performance and for senior managers, but is weaker when investors are distracted. Relative tone does not predict future fund returns on average, although star managers’ relative tone carries some predictive content. Overall, our evidence is consistent with coexistence of information revelation and strategic tone management.

This paper asks whether a personally experienced bubble crash leaves a lasting imprint on investment style. We study this in China’s stock market, where two technology-growth booms —the 2014–2015 Internet boom and the 2025–2026 AI hardware boom—share a similar narrative but are separated by a decade of generational turnover. Following managers across the mutual funds they run from 2013Q1 to 2026Q1, we compare those who lived through the 2015 crash with otherwise similar managers who entered afterwards. We find that the caution of veteran managers reflects a scar rather than a symptom of ageing. Conditional on age and career length, managers who lived through the 2015 crash hold more value exposure and chase technology stocks less when prices have been rising, and this reluctance deepens with how much the crash hurt them—crash-window tenure, performance shortfalls, redemption pressure—rather than with age. These demand differences reach asset prices as well: stocks held disproportionately by managers without bubble memories carry significantly higher subsequent left-tail risk, whereas crash-experienced ownership stabilises the stock, particularly when ownership is broad. Heterogeneous institutional beliefs rooted in career experience therefore shape not only how managers invest but also the crash risk of the assets they hold.

Investors and forecasters often extrapolate from past returns, but whether this reffects behavioral bias or efficient information processing remains unclear. We address this questionby inferring Chinese mutual fund managers’ market expectations from textual analysis oftheir commentaries and linking them to portfolio choices and performance. Extrapola-tion is state-dependent: it is stronger when growth is above trend and idiosyncratic riskis relatively more important. It is associated with weaker market timing and strongerstock picking, leaving overall performance unchanged. Our findings support a rational-inattention model of expectation formation, in which managers shift scarce attentionbetween aggregate and stock-speciffc information as the relative importance of differentrisks change.

We investigate the stock market reaction in China to Trump’s tariff policy announcement on April 2, 2025. We find that the tariff policy reduced stock prices of Chinese firms except those in the agricultural sector. Large-cap stocks, value stocks, stocks of high profitability firms, and stocks of state-owned enterprises experienced smaller negative impacts. Stocks with higher institutional holdings by mutual funds and Social Security Funds exhibited higher resilience, possibly due to these investors' superior capability in selecting stocks and forecasting trade war risks. In contrast, stocks held by Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII) did not exhibit such resilience.

This study investigates how mutual funds impact the stock market by ana-lyzing the relationship between mutual fund investment behaviours (holding and trading) and stock returns and realized volatility in the Chinese market. It is found that stocks widely held or bought by mutual funds can earn higher excess returns, and more importantly, the trading measures out-perform the holding measures, which is evident by the portfolio analysis and Fama-MacBeth regressions. Moreover, the proportional holding, pro-portional trading and shares trading measures positively and significantly predict future realized volatility. Meanwhile, a weak asymmetric effect in the share-trade measure is found.

We posit and demonstrate that, in China’s retail-dominated market, quantitative trading over-relies on non-fundamental signals, thereby crowding out fundamental information from stock prices and increasing crash risk. Using trading data from quantitative mutual funds and Chinese A-share firms during 2009-2023, we find that greater exposure to quantitative trading is associated with higher future crash risk. Mediation analysis further reveals that reduced information efficiency constitutes a key channel through which quantitative trading elevates crash risk. The effect is stronger for stocks with more retail investors, consistent with our proposed mechanism. Overall, we identify a novel potential risk of quantitative trading in underdeveloped emerging markets.

This paper examines whether mandatory ownership disclosure aligns incentives or distorts in-vestor beliefs. Using a sample of 1,436 Chinese equity-oriented mutual funds from 2012 to 2023,we find that higher managerial and senior ownership are significantly associated with larger in-flows, suggesting that investors treat ownership as a quality signal. However, we find no evidencethat ownership forecasts superior future returns or risk-adjusted alphas. Mechanism tests showthat the ownership-flow effect is much stronger in low-marketing funds and that managers increaseownership after weak flows, a countercyclical pattern inconsistent with overconfidence and consis-tent with strategic remedial signaling. Overall, ownership disclosure appears to operate primarilythrough investor perception rather than information about managerial ability, weakening the linkbetween capital allocation and true skill in the mutual fund industry.

This paper studies how mutual fund managers update their beliefs as macroeconomic conditions change. Using regulator-mandated reports from Chinese mutual funds, we measure the intensity of belief updating from year-over-year changes in stated outlooks and decompose those updates into macro and micro themes. We show that belief updating is state-contingent: funds with more intensive belief updating shift their narratives toward macro (micro) topics during recessions (expansions) and concurrently reduce (increase) procyclical stock exposures and on-site company visits. This state-contingent belief updating predicts superior performance when matched to prevailing economic conditions, with macro-oriented updates paying off mainly for high-updating funds in recessions and micro-oriented updates paying off more broadly in expansions. Investors recognize this signal of skill, allocating greater flows to these funds, especially when past returns are less informative. Finally, belief updating is stronger for younger managers and for funds from newer, smaller families, consistent with signaling under career and competitive pressures.

This paper investigates how foreign institutional investors, specifically Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFIIs), influence the investment strategies of Chinese mutual fund management companies (FMCs) in which they hold shares. By analysing panel data from 1,766 mutual funds managed by 44 foreign-invested FMCs in China between 2005 and 2021, we explore whether QFII-invested FMCs (Q-FMCs) learn more from their domestic counterparts (D-FMCs) than other foreign-invested FMCs (NQ-FMCs). Our findings show that Q-FMC-managed mutual funds exhibit portfolio allocations more closely aligned with local DFMCs than those managed by NQ-FMCs. This imitation is particularly pronounced when selecting new stocks, enhancing portfolio performance, but not when rebalancing existing positions. Additionally, Q-FMCs trade more actively than NQ-FMCs. Robustness checks confirm these results across various ownership structures, fund characteristics, market conditions, and regulatory changes. These findings highlight the dual role of QFIIs as both investors and learners in China’s evolving financial landscape, offering insights into how foreign capital integrates into emerging mutual fund markets, informing regulatory policy aimed at fostering cross-border financial development.