详情
Government Guarantee, Informatio n Acquisition and Credit Rating Informativeness: Theory and Evidence from China
We examine the influence of implicit government guarantees on the information
content of credit ratings in China, guided by a theoretical credit rating game model in the
presence of government guarantees. Using issuers’ controlling shareholder identity as the
defining metric of implicit government guarantees, we document a less sensitive
relationship between credit ratings and primary market offer yields for SOE bonds (i.e.,
bonds issued by firms controlled by government or government related agencies) than that
for non SOE bonds. Moreover, ratings of non SOE bonds have a stronger predictive
power on both future downgrades and a market based measure of issuer expected default
probability than those of SOE bonds. These findings are robust to considering the
u nobserved influence of the controlling shareholder identity on security pricing and bond
default risk. Taken together, our empirical findings are consistent with the model’s
prediction that government guarantees can dampen the incentives for credit rating agencies
to acquire costly information, thus lowering the equilibrium informativeness of ratings for
SOE bonds.