performance

  • 详情 Spillover of Bad Publicity Effect of Negative ESG Coverage in Supply Chains on Firm Performance
    In an increasingly open and transparent information environment, negative media coverage of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) issues would detriment focal firms’ legitimacy and performance. However, we have a limited understanding of whether negative media coverage of supply chain partners would spill over to focal firms. Using a panel dataset from Chinese listed firms, we examine the research question at a dyadic (i.e., focal firm and supplier or customer) level. This study reveals that negative media coverage about supply chain partners’ ESG issues can cause a spillover effect, negatively impacting the focal firms’ financial performance. Notably, the extent of this impact is contingent on the reach of the media sources and the severity of the coverage. We also show that focal firms are more impacted by supply chain partners with stronger relationships and greater market power. Our findings underscore the importance of actively managing partners’ ESG issues to avoid potential financial losses within a multi-tier supply chain. This study has fruitful contributions to the literature on supply chain sustainability and the spillover effect in dyadic relationships.
  • 详情 State Ownership and Firm R&D Performance: Capability or Objective?
    We empirically investigate the impact of state ownership on the private economic value and the scientific value of Chinese publicly listed firms’ innovation from 2003 to 2020, and explore its mechanism. We show that the stock-market-based methodology of estimating patent value proposed by Kogan et al. (2017) applies to the Chinese economy, and follow their approach to evaluate patents issued to Chinese listed firms. Using this new data and patent citation data, we find that state-owned enterprises have lower private value of innovation than non-state-owned enterprises, while their scientific values of innovation are not significantly different. We also provide evidence that the state-owned enterprises’ low profit-oriented R&D performance is due to their insufficient capabilities rather than ownership-specific corporate objectives.
  • 详情 Fales Hope: The Spillover Effect of National Leaders' Firm Visits on Industry Peers
    We study how politicians' activities affect the stock market and firm performance. Using hand-collected data on China's national leaders' corporate visits, we investigate the industry-wide implications of these visits. We find that over the six days surrounding a visit, an average industry peer's value increases by 2\% of its total assets. This result reflects investors' favourable interpretation of leaders' visits as a signal of more government support for the entire industry. However, the industry peer's profitability plummets by more than 15\% in the next three years. Further analysis reveals that after the visits, industry peers increase their investments, presumably in anticipation of additional government subsidies and credits. However, these resources are insufficient, and the profitability of these firms suffers. Our findings suggest that national leaders' visits do not help boost the targeted industries, and firms should carefully interpret the politicians' activities.
  • 详情 Optimizing Market Anomalies in China
    We examine the risk-return trade-off in market anomalies within the A-share market, showing that even decaying anomalies may proxy for latent risk factors. To balance forecast bias and variance, we integrate the 1/N and mean-variance frameworks, minimizing out-of-sample forecast error. Treating anomalies as tradable assets, we construct optimized long-short portfolios with strong performance: an average annualized Sharpe ratio of 1.56 and a certainty-equivalent return of 29.4% for a mean-variance investor. These premiums persist post-publication and are largely driven by liquidity risk exposures. Our results remain robust to market frictions, including short-sale constraints and transaction costs. We conclude that even decaying market anomalies may reflect priced risk premia rather than mere mispricing. This research provides practical guidance for academics and investors in return predictability and asset allocation, especially in the unique context of the Chinese A-share market.
  • 详情 Spatiotemporal Correlation in Stock Liquidity Through Corporate Networks from Information Disclosure Texts
    The healthy operation of the stock market relies on sound liquidity. We utilize the semantic information from disclosure texts of listed companies on the China Science and Technology Innovation Board (STAR Market) to construct a daily corporate network. Through empirical tests and performance analyses of machine learning models, we elucidate the relationship between the similarity of company disclosure text contents and the temporal and spatial correlations of stock liquidity. Our liquidity indicators encompass trading costs, market depth, trading speed, and price impact, recognized across four dimensions. Furthermore, we reveal that the information loss caused by employing Minimum Spanning Tree (MST) topology significantly affects the explanatory power of network topology indicators for stock liquidity, with a more pronounced impact observed at the document level. Subsequently, by establishing a neural network model to predict next-day liquidity indicators, we demonstrate the temporal relationship of stock liquidity. We model a liquidity predicting task and train a daily liquidity prediction model incorporating Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) modules to solve it. Compared to models with the same parameter structure containing only fully connected layers, the GCN prediction model, which leverages company network structure information, exhibits stronger performance and faster convergence. We provide new insights for research on company disclosure and capital market liquidity.
  • 详情 ESG Rating Results and Corporate Total Factor Productivity
    ESG is emerging as a new benchmark for measuring a company's sustainable development capabilities and social impact. As a measure of ESG performance, ESG ratings are increasingly receiving attention from companies, the general public, and government institutions, and are becoming an important reference factor influencing their decision-making. This paper investigates the impact of corporate ESG ratings on Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and its mechanisms of action. Focusing on listed companies in China, we find that higher ESG ratings contribute to improving a company's TFP, and this conclusion remains valid after robustness tests and addressing endogeneity issues. Further exploration into the reasons behind this result reveals that ESG ratings can be seen as a signal that a company sends to the outside world, representing its overall performance. Higher ESG ratings enhance a company's TFP by reducing market financing constraints and obtaining government subsidies. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the positive impact of ESG ratings on TFP is more pronounced for companies with higher levels of attention, reputation, and audit quality. Additionally, we explore whether ESG ratings can serve as a predictive indicator for measuring a company's TFP. This hypothesis was tested using machine learning algorithms, and the results indicate that models incorporating ESG rating indicators significantly improve the accuracy of predicting a company's TFP capabilities.
  • 详情 The effect of third-party certification for green bonds: Evidence from China
    We investigate the effect of third-party certification for green bonds by analyzing its impact on issuer's future green innovation performances. We find that third-party certification for green bonds can significantly promote issuer's future green innovation performances. Furthermore, the promotion effect is more prominent in non-state-owned issuers, large issuers and heavy polluting issuers, and can be more significantly exerted by professional and reputable third-party certification agencies. Besides, third-party certification for green bonds can play the effect by reducing the issuer's tax expenditure, increasing the issuer's loan financing, and receiving a positive response in stock returns. But unexpectedly, it cannot play the effect by further reducing the credit spread of green bonds. Our findings indicate that independent external supervision can play a positive role in green bond issuance, but there is still a long way to go.
  • 详情 The Optimality of Gradualism in Economies with Financial Markets
    We develop a model economy with active financial markets in which a policymaker's adoption of a gradualistic approach constitutes a Bayesian Nash equilibrium. In our model, the ex ante policy proposal influences the supply side of the economy, while the ex post policy action affects the demand side and shapes market equilibrium. When choosing policies, the policymaker internalizes the impact of her decisions on the precision of the firm-value signal. Moreover, financial markets provide a price signal that informs the government. The policymaker learns about the productivity shocks not only from firm-value performance signals but also from financial market prices. Access to information through both channels creates strong incentives for the policymaker to adopt a gradualistic approach in a time-consistent manner. Smaller policy steps yield more precise information about the productivity shock. These results hold robustly for both exogenous and endogenous information models.
  • 详情 Climate Risk and Corporate Financial Risk: Empirical Evidence from China
    There is substantial evidence indicating that enterprises are negatively impacted by climate risk, with the most direct effects typically occurring in financial domains. This study examines A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2023, employing text analysis to develop the firm-level climate risk indicator and investigate the influence on corporate financial risk. The results show a significant positive correlation between climate risk and financial risk at the firm level. Mechanism analysis shows that the negative impact of climate risk on corporate financial condition is mainly achieved through three paths: increasing financial constraints, reducing inventory reserves, and increasing the degree of maturity mismatch. To address potential endogeneity, this study applies instrumental variable tests, propensity score matching, and a quasi-natural experiment based on the Paris Agreement. Additional tests indicate that reducing the degree of information asymmetry and improving corporate ESG performance can alleviate the negative impact of climate risk on corporate financial conditions. This relationship is more pronounced in high-carbon emission industries. In conclusion, this research deepens the understanding of the link between climate risk and corporate financial risk, providing a new micro perspective for risk management, proactive governance transformation, and the mitigation of financial challenges faced by enterprises.
  • 详情 Extrapolative expectations and asset returns: Evidence from Chinese mutual funds
    We examine how mutual funds form stock market expectations and the implications of these beliefs for asset returns, using a novel text-based measure extracted from Chinese fund reports. Funds extrapolate from recent stock market and fund returns when forming expectations, with more recent returns receiving greater weight. This recency tendency is weaker among more experienced managers. At the aggregate level, consensus expectations positively predict short-term future market returns, both in and out of sample. At the fund level, expectations are positively related to subsequent fund performance in the time series. In the cross-section, however, superior performance arises only when funds accurately forecast market direction and adjust their portfolios accordingly. This effect is stronger for optimistic forecasts and among funds with greater exposure to liquid stocks. Our findings highlight the conditional nature of belief-driven performance, shaped jointly by forecasting skill and the ability to implement views in the presence of execution frictions such as short-selling and liquidity constraints.