signal

  • 详情 Insight into the Nexus between Intellectual Property Pledge Financing and Enterprise Innovation:A Systematic Analysis with Multidimensional Perspectives☆
    The discussion on the innovative effects of intellectual property pledge financing is a mainstream trend. In this context, this study has improved the existing research from several aspects, such as broadening the dimensions of innovation, adding dynamic analysis, refining multidimensional mediation mechanisms, and employing unique samples. Ultimately, we come to the following conclusions: (1) Intellectual property pledge financing suppresses enterprise innovation, especially innovation quality, but this pattern will be broken by raising the threshold of innovation conditions. The reason is that strict innovation conditions can lead to a poor innovation foundation for enterprises, which are rarely affected by the fluctuation of funds obtained from intellectual property pledge financing. (2) Intellectual property pledge financing has a non-linear effect on firm innovation, characterized by an increase followed by a decrease, suggesting that intellectual property pledge financing in current China can only provide a temporary stimulus for firm innovation. (3) The relationship between intellectual property pledge financing and enterprise innovation is strongly moderated by the ownership, type, and size of the enterprise, with the inhibitory effect of intellectual property pledge financing on enterprise innovation occurring mainly in state-owned enterprises, high-tech enterprises, and small enterprises, while its positive effects are more pronounced in private enterprises, non-high-tech enterprises, and medium-sized enterprises. (4) Financing constraints, internal incentives, external supervision, and signaling mechanisms are indeed key pathways through which intellectual property pledge financing affects firm innovation, especially when we analyse these mechanisms using dynamic models.
  • 详情 ESG Rating Results and Corporate Total Factor Productivity
    ESG is emerging as a new benchmark for measuring a company's sustainable development capabilities and social impact. As a measure of ESG performance, ESG ratings are increasingly receiving attention from companies, the general public, and government institutions, and are becoming an important reference factor influencing their decision-making. This paper investigates the impact of corporate ESG ratings on Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and its mechanisms of action. Focusing on listed companies in China, we find that higher ESG ratings contribute to improving a company's TFP, and this conclusion remains valid after robustness tests and addressing endogeneity issues. Further exploration into the reasons behind this result reveals that ESG ratings can be seen as a signal that a company sends to the outside world, representing its overall performance. Higher ESG ratings enhance a company's TFP by reducing market financing constraints and obtaining government subsidies. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the positive impact of ESG ratings on TFP is more pronounced for companies with higher levels of attention, reputation, and audit quality. Additionally, we explore whether ESG ratings can serve as a predictive indicator for measuring a company's TFP. This hypothesis was tested using machine learning algorithms, and the results indicate that models incorporating ESG rating indicators significantly improve the accuracy of predicting a company's TFP capabilities.
  • 详情 Large Language Models and Return Prediction in China
    We examine whether large language models (LLMs) can extract contextualized representation of Chinese news articles and predict stock returns. The LLMs we examine include BERT, RoBERTa, FinBERT, Baichuan, ChatGLM and their ensemble model. We find that tones and return forecasts extracted by LLMs from news significantly predict future returns. The equal- and value-weighted long minus short portfolios yield annualized returns of 90% and 69% on average for the ensemble model. Given that these news articles are public information, the predictive power lasts about two days. More interestingly, the signals extracted by LLMs contain information about firm fundamentals, and can predict the aggressiveness of future trades. The predictive power is noticeably stronger for firms with less efficient information environment, such as firms with lower market cap, shorting volume, institutional and state ownership. These results suggest that LLMs are helpful in capturing under-processed information in public news, for firms with less efficient information environment, and thus contribute to overall market efficiency.
  • 详情 The Optimality of Gradualism in Economies with Financial Markets
    We develop a model economy with active financial markets in which a policymaker's adoption of a gradualistic approach constitutes a Bayesian Nash equilibrium. In our model, the ex ante policy proposal influences the supply side of the economy, while the ex post policy action affects the demand side and shapes market equilibrium. When choosing policies, the policymaker internalizes the impact of her decisions on the precision of the firm-value signal. Moreover, financial markets provide a price signal that informs the government. The policymaker learns about the productivity shocks not only from firm-value performance signals but also from financial market prices. Access to information through both channels creates strong incentives for the policymaker to adopt a gradualistic approach in a time-consistent manner. Smaller policy steps yield more precise information about the productivity shock. These results hold robustly for both exogenous and endogenous information models.
  • 详情 Image-based Asset Pricing in Commodity Futures Markets
    We introduce a deep visualization (DV) framework that turns conventional commodity data into images and extracts predictive signals via convolutional feature learning. Specifically, we encode futures price trajectories and the futures surface as images, then derive four deep‑visualization (DV) predictors, carry ($bs_{DV}$), basis momentum ($bm_{DV}$), momentum ($mom_{DV}$), and skewness ($sk_{DV}$), each of which consistently outperforms its traditional formula‑based counterpart in return predictability. By forming long–short portfolios in the top (bottom) quartile of each DV predictor, we build an image‑based four‑factor model that delivers significant alpha and better explains the cross‑section of commodity returns than existing benchmarks. Further evidence shows that the explanatory power of these image‑based factors is strongly linked to macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical risk. Our findings reveal that transforming conventional financial data into images and relying solely on image-derived features suffices to construct a sophisticated asset pricing model at least in commodity markets, pioneering the paradigm of image‑based asset pricing.
  • 详情 Do Chinese Retail and Institutional Investors Trade on Anomalies?
    Using comprehensive account-level data and 192 asset pricing anomaly signals, we investigate whether retail investors and institutions trade on anomalies in China. We find that retail investors tend to trade contrary to anomaly prescriptions, suggesting that they have a strong tendency to buy (sell) overvalued (undervalued) stocks. In contrast, institutions trade consistent with anomalies, indicating that they buy (sell) undervalued (overvalued) stocks. Regarding the information content of anomalies, we find that small retail investors trade contrary to trading-based anomalies, whereas institutions trade consistent with both trading- and accounting-based anomalies. Additionally, lottery stock preference and return extrapolation help explain investors’ trading behavior on anomalies.
  • 详情 Greenwashing or green evolution: Can transition finance empower green innovation in carbon-intensive enterprise?
    The scale expansion of low-carbon industries and the green transformation of carbon-intensive industries are two sides of the same coin in achieving the “dual carbon” goals. However, research on transition finance supporting the upgrading of traditional existing carbon-intensive industries remains insufficient. The key to examining the effectiveness of transition finance lies in distinguishing whether the supported enterprises are engaging in greenwashing or green evolution. Based on data of Chinese A-share listed companies in the carbon-intensive industries, an empirical study is conducted and offers the following findings: (1) Transition finance not only does not increase greenwashing but also promotes comprehensive green innovation in carbon-intensive enterprises. (2) In terms of the influencing mechanism, transition finance exerts “resource effects” and “signaling effects,” promoting green innovation by improving debt maturity mismatch and attracting green institutional investors. (3) Heterogeneity analysis shows that the positive impact of transition finance on green innovation is particularly pronounced among enterprises in the eastern region, state-owned enterprises, and those with lower levels of managerial myopia. (4) Further industry spillover effects analysis reveals that transition finance empowers green innovation within industries though peer effects and competitive effects. The findings are essential for understanding the effectiveness of transition finance and offer valuable insights for policymakers.
  • 详情 Belief Dispersion in the Chinese Stock Market and Fund Flows
    This study explores how Chinese mutual fund managers’ degrees of disagreement (DOD) on stock market returns affect investor capital allocation decisions using a novel text-based measure of expectations in fund disclosures. In the time series, the DOD neg-atively predicts market returns. Cross-sectional results show that investors correctly perceive the DOD as an overpricing signal and discount fund performance accordingly. Flow-performance sensitivity (FPS) is diminished during high dispersion periods. The ef-fect is stronger for outperforming funds and funds with substantial investments in bubble and high-beta stocks, but weaker for skilled funds. We also discuss ffnancial sophisti-cation of investors and provide evidence that our results are not contingent upon such sophistication.
  • 详情 Dissecting Momentum in China
    Why is price momentum absent in China? Since momentum is commonly considered arising from investors’ under-reaction to fundamental news, we decompose monthly stock returns into news- and non-news-driven components and document a news day return continuation along with an offsetting non-news day reversal in China. The non-news day reversal is particularly strong for stocks with high retail ownership, relatively less recent positive news articles, and limits to arbitrage. Evidence on order imbalance suggests that stock returns overshoot on news days due to retail investors' excessive attention-driven buying demands, and mispricing gets corrected by institutional investors on subsequent non-news days. To avoid this tug-of-war in stock price, we use a signal that directly captures the recent news performance and re-document a momentum-like underreaction to fundamental news in China.
  • 详情 Partnership as Assurance: Regulatory Risk and State–Business Equity Ties in China
    Recent studies highlight the resurgence of state capitalism, with the state increasingly acting as equity investors in private firms. Why do state--business equity ties, including partial and indirect state ownership in private firms, proliferate in weakly institutionalized contexts like China? While conventional wisdom emphasizes state-driven explanations based on static evidence, I argue that regulatory risk reshapes business preferences, prompting firms to seek state investors and expanding state--business equity ties. These ties facilitate information exchange and signal political endorsement under regulatory scrutiny. Focusing on China's crackdown on the Internet and IT sectors, difference-in-differences analyses of all investments from 2016 to 2022 reveal a rise in state--business equity ties post-crackdown. In-depth interviews with investors along with quantitative analysis, demonstrate that shifts in business preferences drive this change. This study shows the resurgence of state capitalism is driven not only by the state but also by businesses in response to regulatory risks.