tone management

  • 详情 Strategic Narratives: Mutual Fund Managers’ Commentaries and Fund Flows
    Chinese mutual fund managers are required to file quarterly commentaries that mix fund-specific performance/strategy discussions with broader macroeconomic commentary, alongside financial statements. Using FinBERT Model, we decompose these narratives into substantive discussions (fund-specific) and general discussions (macro) and measure strategic messaging by the relative tone of substantive discussions to general discussions. We then analyze how such strategic narratives affect investor behavior. We posit two channels through which relative tone could affect subsequent fund flows: information revelation or strategic tone management. Using 64,810 fund-quarter observations (2008–2022), we find that a one-standard-deviation increase in optimistic relative tone predicts a 0.98% rise in subsequent fund flows—about 25.36% of the effect of prior-quarter performance. Results hold in difference-in-difference analyses, using fund manager-turnover as identification. The flow effect is stronger for funds with superior past performance and for senior managers, but is weaker when investors are distracted. Relative tone does not predict future fund returns on average, although star managers’ relative tone carries some predictive content. Overall, our evidence is consistent with coexistence of information revelation and strategic tone management.
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