设立自由贸易试验区是我国在经济新形势下实施的重要政策。自贸区在发展过程中存在时空异质性：时间异质性体现在各自贸区成立时间不同，发展水平不一；空间异质性表现为自贸区在经济水平、产业结构和要素吸引力等方面存在空间差异，因此各自贸区发展方向和功能定位不同。根据自贸区建设方案，将其功能定位归纳为四类，分别是以资源支持行业、研发投入行业、航运物流业、现代商贸业为重点发展行业的自贸区。为促进自贸区发展，金融支持作用不可忽视。基于自贸区发展的时空异质性，针对其功能定位提出差异化金融支持对策，并进一步强调自贸区金融的联动合作，以期为自贸区发展注入新的动力。

本文通过构建包含异质性的家庭消费跨期替代弹性的 DSGE 模型，解释了负向 TFP冲击如何引起实际 GDP 增速下行与房价、债务上涨并存的现象，且负向 TFP 冲击的持续性决定了房价、债务是否出现“逆周期”及其规模。本文基于以下逻辑：负向 TFP 冲击导致收入下滑，消费跨期替代弹性异质性使得部分家庭有倾向于减少住房支出去平滑消费，相对地另一部分家庭倾向于增加住房投资，一方面，随着消费恢复住房需求快速回升，实际住房价格由低到高，同时利率下行，财富从储蓄者向借贷炒房者转移，形成住房财富两极分化，这种分化同时强化了储蓄家庭的居住需求和借贷炒房家庭的投资需求；另一方面，金融中介通过吸收部分家庭的储蓄并向另一类家庭放贷，通过利差不断积累净值，更高的净值对应更多的住房贷款，二者共同推动房价的持续上升。冲击的早期，两类家庭提供更多劳动获得可支配收入，劳动意愿上升部分抵消了产出下滑，随着住房价格上升及信贷繁荣，家庭减少劳动时间，实际产出随之下降，形成房价与债务的“逆周期”现象。央行通过盯住利差，或在货币政策规则中引入金融中介杠杆因子等途径干预信贷能够消除房价与家庭债务的“逆周期”现象。最后，从信贷错配的角度出发，房价上涨是预算软约束下财政刺激、不确定性上升引起的“副作用”。

保险业的经营特征与区块链技术存在天然契合性，本文通过分析基于区块链技术的保险交易流程，构建了基于保险交易的静态最优区块链模型，得到了保单区块存储员的最优区块存储能力、区块存储成本以及限制区块链违约分叉的约束条件。进一步以我国车险市场的经营数据为例进行数值模拟，得到区块规模、平均记录时间、平均交易费用等指标的最优结果。通过比较静态分析发现，保险交易数量、保单区块存储员人数、区块存储时间等增加以及风险损失率的降低均会导致区块规模增加以及保险交易记录时间和保险交易费用的减少，而外部冲击的增加会导致区块规模的增加以及保险交易记录时间减少，但对保险交易费用的影响取决于因外部冲击增加而产生的交费激励增加和区块规模受限而导致的交费激励减少之间的平衡。基于研究结果，本文在保险科技协同、区块链系统设计和具体场景实践等方面提出了政策建议，同时也指出了一些有待解决的现实问题。

立足于现阶段中国发展实际，以促进中国经济高质量发展为基本逻辑，本文在深刻解读双循环新发展格局的历史背景、现实逻辑、理论内涵及战略意义的基础上，对中国自由贸易试验区与双循环新发展格局之间的发展脉络以及双循环新发展格局视域下自由贸易试验区的新定位进行剖析。形成的基本认识可以归纳为以下几点：第一，以习近平同志为核心的党中央提出的双循环新发展格局，将马克思主义政治经济学中的社会再生产四大环节与新时期五大发展理念深度融合，深刻揭示出现阶段我国经济运行的新规律、新特征，以系统集成思维开拓了中国特色开放型经济理论的新境界，丰富了中国特色社会主义政治经济学。第二，作为新时代建设开放型经济体制的新高地，在双循环新发展格局视域下，自由贸易试验区不仅是驱动国内经济高质量循环中的改革试验田和有力抓手，又是国内发展参与国际大循环的开放桥头堡和重要窗口，在链接国内国际双循环过程中发挥着重要的关节枢纽作用。第三，自由贸易试验区的制度创新模式不仅在经济增“量”上可以发挥重要的改革助推剂效果，更会在经济提“质”方面起到全新的动能引领作用。我们要赋予自由贸易试验区更大改革自主权，优化自由贸易试验区布局，差别化探索自由贸易试验区发展模式，充分利用自由贸易试验区先行先试制度红利，引领国内要素市场化配置改革，将自由贸易试验区布局融入国家开放发展战略，进一步丰富中国特色开放型经济理论，用高水平开放实践助推国内外经济良性循环，共同驱动中国经济奔向高质量未来。

当前科创企业整体呈现出“轻资产、高成长、高风险”特征，使得其在经营发展中面临着较为突出的“融资难、融资贵”问题。在双循环新发展格局下可探索采用一定的货币政策工具，引导资金更多投向科创企业。通过对比分析美联储主街贷款计划（MSLP）和我国央行推出的普惠小微企业信用贷款支持计划（CLSP），结合科创企业知识产权质押融资业务的特征，提出创设直达科创企业的货币工具—科创企业知识产权质押贷款支持计划（PLSP），计划包含 4 个主要创新点，旨在提升商业银行科创贷款的投放意愿并精准投贷贷款。构建了涉及人民银行、知识产权局、地方政府、商业银行、中介机构五方主体的科创企业金融工具“几家抬”框架，旨在通过社会各方的共同努力，有效缓解科创企业融资难、融资贵问题。

Subjective performance evaluation is widely used by firms and governments to provide work incentives. However, delegating evaluation power to local leadership could induce influence activities: employees might devote too much effort to impressing/pleasing their evaluator, relative to working toward the goals of the organization itself. We conduct a large-scale randomized field experiment among Chinese local civil servants to study the existence and implications of influence activities. We find that civil servants do engage in evaluator-specific influence to affect evaluation outcomes, partly in the form of reallocating work efforts toward job tasks that are more important and observable to the evaluator. Importantly, we show that introducing uncertainty about the evaluator’s identity discourages evaluator-specific influence activities and improves bureaucratic work performance.

We identify negative spillovers exerted by large, successful manufacturing plants on other local production facilities in China. A short-lived alliance between the U.S.S.R. and China led to the construction of 150 "Million-Rouble plants" in the 1950s. Our identification strategy exploits the ephemeral geopolitical context and the relative position of allied and enemy airbases to isolate exogenous variation in plant location decisions. We find a boom-and-bust pattern in hosting counties: treated counties are twice as productive as control counties in 1982, but 30% less productive in 2010. The average other establishment in treated counties is unproductive, does not innovate, and charges high markups. We find that (over)specialization limits technological spillovers. This prevents the emergence of new industrial clusters and leads to a flight of entrepreneurs.

We analyze the effects of exposure to industrial robots on labor markets and household behaviors,exploring longitudinal household data from China. We find that a one standard deviation increase in robot exposure led to a decline in labor force participation (-1%), employment (-7.5%), and hourly wages (-9%) of Chinese workers. At the same time, among those who kept working, robot exposure increased the number of hours worked by 14%. These effects were concentrated among the less educated and larger among men, prime-age, and older workers. We then explore how individuals and families responded to increased exposure to robots. We find that more exposed workers increased their participation in technical training and were significantly more likely to retire earlier. Despite the negative impact on wages and employment, we find no evidence of an effect on consumption or savings, which is explained by an increase in borrowing (+10%). While there is no evidence of an effect on marital behavior, we document that robot exposure led to a small decline in the number of children (-1%). Finally, we find that robot exposure increased family time investment in the education of children (+10%) as well as the investment in children’s after-school academic and extra-curricular activities (+24%).

Rising concern over the impact of Chinese industrial policy has led to severe trade tensions between China and some of its major trading partners. In recent years, foreign criticism has increasingly focused on the so-called "Made in China 2025" initiative. In this paper, we use information extracted from Chinese listed firms' financial reports and a difference-in-differences approach to examine how the "Made in China 2025" policy initiative has impacted firms' receipt of subsidies, R&D expenditure, patenting, productivity, and profitability. We find that while more innovation promotion subsidies seem to flow into the listed firms targeted by the policy, we see little statistical evidence of productivity improvement or increases in R&D expenditure, patenting and profitability. This paper suggests that the “Made in China 2025” initiative may have not yet achieved its target goals.

快速扩张的加密货币市场引起我们对加密货币价格决定性因素的思考：究竟是什么因素在决定加密货币价格？ 我们以 Google 搜索作为投资者对加密货币的关注度度量指标，检验了加密货币市场的“网络炒作效应”，并进一步提出了由加密货币市场因子、规模因子和网络关注度因子组成的加密货币市场三因子定价模型。我们的实证结果表明：(1) 加密货币市场存在显著的网络炒作效应，网络炒作是加密货币价格上升的推手；(2) 加密货币的平均超额收益率与规模呈负相关关系，与 Google 搜索关注度因子呈显著的正相关关系；(3) 我们提出的三因子模型对加密货币的截面超额收益率具有很强的解释能力，并能够很好地解释加密货币市场中的动量因子、反转因子和流动性因子。