The Chinese earnings yield differential relative to the U.S. switches from negative to positive around 2009, with the aggregate variation masking substantial cross-sector variation. Changes in sectoral composition and (changing) growth expectations are not important determinants of the variation in China-U.S. valuation differentials. Instead, changes in ownership structure, and most importantly cross-sectional and temporal variation in financial openness, are the key contributors. In addition, we show that IPOs in the banking sector and its internationalization played a critical role in the (relative) valuation change.

Unlike equity analysis where analysts follow a small group of firms and exercise discretion in incorporating firm-specific knowledge, ESG ratings that intend to capture firm ESG risk are produced through a largely unified model that incorporates a set of common disclosures decided by each rater. Against this backdrop, we assess the ability of local and global ESG ratings in capturing covered firms’ ESG risk in China. We use firm-level negative ESG incidents that occur within a year of ESG ratings’ release as a proxy for raters’ ESG risk assessment and examine whether local and foreign ratings have differential predictive ability. We find that local ratings better capture ESG risk that relates to social and governance issues on corruption, employment conditions, and regulatory violations, which often require the local context to incorporate. The outperformance is also salient among firms that rely on relationship-based transactions and political connections. Our results suggest that the local rater uses local knowledge to inform its model, which makes the ratings more relevant to ESG risk.

Bank stress tests can be an effective information disclosure policy in persuading stakeholders to avoid “attacking” a bank, thereby decreasing the probability of bank failure during distress. This paper studies stress test design along two dimensions: strength and frequency, assuming stakeholders are privately informed and move sequentially. We characterize all robustly persuasive stress tests that ensure all bank stakeholders disregard private information and coordinate actions perfectly based on test results (“pass” or “fail”). Our ffndings indicate that more frequent stress tests can substitute for increased test strength in making the stress test result robustly persuasive. We then identify the optimal stress test policy and investigate how the optimal frequency and strength depend on macroeconomic conditions, bank idiosyncratic characteristics, and endogenous maturity choices of banks. Finally, we discuss how other regulatory measures may complement the stress test policy.

Using proprietary data of all high-tech incubators in China, we study a new approach by government to implement industrial policy through market intermediaries instead of directly allocating resources. Exploiting a highly localized industrial policy that targets different “strategic emerging industries” across provinces, we find that the incubators in policy-targeted industries receive higher government subsidy after the policy relative to their peers in other industries. Moreover, we find evidence that government subsidy to high-tech incubators increases the incubated startups’ innovation activity. Privately owned incubators in targeted industries, relative to their state-owned peers, receive less government subsidy, although they utilize government subsidy much more efficiently than do their state-owned peers.

We investigate whether and how environmentally inclined politicians (EIPs), i.e., politicians with prior environment-related work experience, affect local environmental performance in China. We find that firms located in cities with EIPs have lower levels of sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions. The effect is attenuated when the politician is in his/her second term and among firms that are economically important. Firms in cities with EIPs commit fewer environmental violations, receive more green subsidies from the local government, and choose to establish new polluting subsidiaries in cities without EIPs. We also find that the economic performance of cities governed by EIPs is not statistically different from that of cities governed by non-EIPs. Furthermore, the promotion likelihood of EIPs is negatively related to local emission levels. The findings overall suggest that local officials strategically leverage their expertise in environment protection to allocate more effort on environmental causes.

We develop a machine learning (ML) approach to establish new insights into how memory affects ffnancial market participants’ belief formation processes in the field. Using analyst forecasts as proxies for market beliefs, we extract analysts’ mental contexts and recalls that shape forecasts by training an ML memory model. First, we find that long-term memories are salient in analysts’ recalls. However, compared to an ML benchmark trained to fit realized earnings, analysts pay more attention to distant episodes in regular times but less during crisis times, leading to recall distortions and therefore forecast errors. Second, we decompose analysts’ mental contexts and show that they are mainly shaped by past earnings and forecasting decisions instead of current firm fundamentals as indicated by the ML benchmark. This difference in contexts further explains the recall distortion. Third, our comprehensive memory model reveals the significance of specific memory features and channels in analysts’ belief formation, including the temporal contiguity effect and selective forgetting.

During the past decade, Wechat-public-accounts (WPAs) have gained increasing popularity as a novel tool for voluntary disclosure among Chinese public firms. This paper examines whether WPA disclosures provide value-relevant information to the market. Using a topic model to process over 1.6 million WPA articles during 2012-2020 and an event study design, we find that the stock market reacts strongly following a WPA disclosure event and the magnitude varies with the topic and textual feature of the WPA articles. We further present evidence that firms use their WPAs to provide new information rather than reinforce information that is already presented in other channels. Moreover, financial analysts, journalists, and retail investors rely on corporate WPAs for their information production. Collectively, our findings indicate that corporate WPAs are an economically significant source of new information for market participants that supplement traditional disclosure channels considered in prior studies.

This paper investigates the effect on A–H premiums of the China Stock Connect, which allows the Mainland to invest in H-shares in Hong Kong (Southbound) and overseas to invest in A-shares in the Mainland (Northbound). It removes barriers to investor trading all crosslisted A- and H-shares but leads to them an enlarged premium. We develop the differential demand hypothesis of Stulz and Wasserfallen (1995) in China and identify the elasticities of Stock Connect relying on the demand asset pricing of Koijen and Yogo (2019). We ffnd that the average elasticity of Northbound (A-shares) is 0.18, and that of Southbound (H-shares) is 0.66, implying that A-H shares have different levels of substitute effect for investors on each side of Stock Connect, leading to the long-term premium. On a univariate basis, they explain 20% of the variation of the A-H premium and remain highly signiffcant when controlling other variables. We also estimate the cross-listed and time-varying elasticities of Stock Connect. They illustrate the strong positive spillover effect of A-H shares and check the robustness of our results.

Using an extensive panel of Chinese firms from the Annual Tax Survey and relying on labor unrest as shock to local social stability, we show that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) react to nearby labor unrest by creating additional employment at the expense of firm performance. Each SOE exposed to unrest hires 3% more employees, which is a sizeable aggregated effect. This effect is larger when labor unrest occurs in the same industry as the exposed SOEs, when local governments have sound fiscal budgets, and when governing mayors have stronger promotion incentives. SOEs obtain more fiscal benefits when they absorb additional labor. In contrast, non-SOEs do not react to labor unrest, and their performance is unaffected. Similar effects are detected when we use the population of Chinese listed firms. This paper provides evidence that SOEs internalize the goal of maintaining social stability and contribute to the growth of the non-state sector.

We uncover a signiffcant relationship between the persistence of marketing and investment skills among U.S. mutual fund companies. Using regulatory filings, we calculate the share of marketing-oriented employees to total employment and reveal alarge heterogeneity in its level and persistence. A framework based on costly signaling and learning helps explain the observed marketing decision. The model features a separating equilibrium in which fund companies’ optimal marketing employment share responds to their past performance differently, conditional on the skill level. We confirm the model prediction that the volatility of the marketing employment share negatively predicts the fund companies’ long-term performance.