Economic policy uncertainty is a key determinant of exchange rate stability. This study investigates the impact of China's categorical economic policy uncertainties on the long-term correlation between onshore (CNY) and offshore (CNH) Renminbi (RMB) exchange rates. We find that fiscal policy uncertainty (FPU), monetary policy uncertainty (MPU), and exchange rate and capital account uncertainty (EXRPU) have a significant negative effect on this correlation, while trade policy uncertainty (TPU) has no significant impact. Furthermore, CNY and CNH do not effectively diversify risks and provide only limited hedging benefits.

This paper investigates how the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) affects long-term stock–bond correlations in China, employing mixed-frequency data from April 2005 to June 2025 in a DCC-MIDAS-X framework. Results show that higher GSCPI significantly reduces long-term stock–bond correlations, thereby enhancing the hedging property of bonds. This effect is both state-dependent and asymmetric, remaining significant in low-volatility regimes and following negative shocks, while becoming largely muted during high-volatility periods or after positive shocks. However, the impact of GSCPI weakens substantially after China’s 2014 financial liberalization, as global financial factors increasingly drive cross-asset dynamics. Moreover, GSCPI provides incremental information that enhances portfolio diversification and hedging performance.

Against the backdrop of recurrent global crises, economic uncertainty, and mounting environmental and social pressures, corporate resilience—defined as a firm’s capability to withstand external systemic shocks—has emerged as a critical determinant of long-term sustainability. This study empirically exames the effect of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) performance on corporate resilience in China’s A-share market, using the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment to identify causal effects. The sample comprises 651 A-share listed firms, excluding financial institutions, real estate firms, and ST/*ST companies, over the period from January 20, 2020, when the pandemic was officially announced in China, to June 30, 2024. ESG performance is measured as the average of 2018–2019 ratings issued by three major domestic agencies, thereby capturing firms’ pre-shock conditions and mitigating concerns of reverse causality. Corporate resilience is evaluated along two dimensions: resistance, measured by the severity of losses in net income, revenue, and stock price, and recovery, measured by the time required for ROA, EBIT, stock price, and Tobin’s Q to return to pre-shock levels. To ensure the robustness of the findings, this study employs linear regression models with industry-clustered robust standard errors, an instrumental-variable approach using R&D intensity and analyst coverage as instruments, and a Cox accelerated failure time model to estimate recovery duration. The empirical results indicate that stronger pre-shock ESG performance significantly enhances corporate resistance and shortens recovery time. Mechanism analyses further reveal that ESG strengthens corporate resilience by improving total factor productivity, alleviating financing constraints, and enhancing corporate reputation. These findings remain robust to multicollinearity diagnostics and a range of additional robustness tests. Overall, this study provides empirical evidence of the value of ESG in strengthening corporate resilience and offers important implications for firms, policymakers, and investors.

In view of the divergence of existing research results on the relationship between ESG and investment returns, this paper constructs an S-score metric, which comprehensively measures corporate sustainability performance. It further tests the applicability of a sustainability-based investment strategy using this metric in China's A-share market. Using Shanghai and Shenzhen A-shares from May 2016 to April 2024 as the research sample, the S-score is constructed across five dimensions: Profitability, Growth Opportunities, Investment Efficiency, Risk Mitigation, and ESG Performance. The S-score is calculated using Z-score standardization and entropy weighted. Strategy effectiveness was tested through univariate grouping, bivariate grouping, and Fama-Macbeth regression, further examining strategy performance under varying market conditions, holding periods, and information environments. The study finds that the S-score demonstrates significant discriminative power for cross-sectional stock returns. The hedge portfolio based on this metric achieved an annualized excess return of 7.943% after adjusting for the China three-factor (CH-3) model. Its predictive power remains robust after controlling for variables such as market capitalization and book-to-market ratio, delivering significant positive returns across bull and bear markets, extreme pandemic conditions, and holding periods of up to eight years. From a behavioral finance perspective, this paper reveals that explanations such as the gradual diffusion of information and investors' limited attention span help elucidate the profitability of the S-score strategy. The findings demonstrate the effectiveness of Sustainable Investing strategies in China's A-share market, indicating that ESG-integrated factor investing can optimize resource allocation. This research contributes empirical evidence on Sustainable Investing in emerging markets, providing insights for policy formulation and practical implementation while supporting the virtuous cycle between Sustainable Investing and long-termism.

在“小院高墙”政策冲击与全球价值链重构的背景下，出口企业如何在外部约束上升时调整出口渠道并配置能力投资，是理解产业链供应链韧性的重要问题。本文构建了包含直接出口、第三国转运、海外生产和退出选择的异质性企业贸易模型，并结合海关贸易流与上市公司经营信息进行结构估计。研究发现，地缘风险上升会提高直接出口生存门槛，推动部分存活企业转向非直接渠道；相对于冲击后被迫留在原渠道的反事实，渠道重置能够显著降低出口损失，能力投资通过降低转运风险和组织调整成本进一步增强这一作用。模拟矩估计结果显示，基准情形下直接出口损失约为 9.06%；若禁止渠道切换，损失上升至 14.86%；若关闭能力投资，损失上升至 10.63%。稳健性和异质性检验表明，冲击前具有海外经营经验、研发投入强度较高的企业更可能完成渠道调整。本文为解释地缘经济冲击下出口企业的渠道应对和能力建设提供了微观证据，也为完善企业出海支持和供应链韧性政策提供了参考。

中国宏观经济长期存在一组结构性矛盾：货币供给总量持续扩张，制造业尤其是小微企业的流动性约束并未同步缓解，应收账款回收期居高不下，融资成本下行节奏明显滞后。现有研究多在“实体—金融”二元框架下讨论脱实向虚问题，忽略了债务履约具备法定刚性、优先偿付的特殊属性，难以解释总量宽松与结构性紧缺并存的现象。本文回归费雪交易方程的全口径内涵，将广义交易拆解为实体生产、金融资产交易与债务履约三个层级，构建三层流速分析框架；借鉴结构力学弹塑性变形逻辑，结合企业两期现金流约束模型内生推导实体流动性的非线性断裂阈值。基于2000—2024年中国省级面板数据，综合运用门槛回归、强度双重差分、马尔可夫区制转换、局部投影与工具变量法展开检验。研究发现：样本期内债务交易层流速持续显著高于金融层与实体层，传统单一GDP口径对真实货币流通压力存在系统性低估；债务流速存在约15.4%的临界阈值，突破阈值后对规上工业应收账款回收期的挤压强度呈非线性放大，且塑性断裂区间具备强粘性与低可逆性，总量型货币政策传导效率明显衰减；小微企业对应的断裂阈值更低、受冲击强度更大，弹塑性机制具备全域普适性。本文从流量分层视角拓展了资金脱实向虚的理论分析体系，可为地方债务长效治理与结构性货币政策设计提供量化依据。

同等经济规模的地级市之间，工业发展差距持续拉大，仅依靠经济发展阶段理论无法充分解释这一分化现象。本文搭建资金禀赋与经营意愿的二维分析框架，选取 2016—2025 年国内 289 座地级市平衡面板数据，利用双重门槛模型内生测算得到两组临界数值：资金充裕度分界点为 0.54、0.72，资金流动活跃度分界点为 0.76、0.94，并按照两项指标的组合差异划分出九类城市工业发展形态。实证结果显示，资金储备水平决定区域工业发展的基础底线，企业扩张意愿则影响资金转化为实体产出的实际效率，二者存在显著正向交互效应。基于上述门槛识别结论，本文提出双门槛陷阱假说，配套设计九类型工业发展诊断工具，可用于季度动态监测，为城市制定差异化产业扶持政策提供量化参考。

中国式 “宽货币、紧信用” 结构性悖论，长期缺乏机制闭环、量化统一的 解释框架。研究依托 2015Q1—2025Q4 银行微观时序与宏观匹配数据，构建货 币异化全链条传导体系，实证识别出双重非线性安全边界：银行业活期存款占 比 27.2%（存量阈值）、M2/M1 增速倍率 1.8（增速阈值）。活期占比跌破 27.2% 后，数字金融对货币异化、信贷收缩的负面冲击放大 3.8 倍。27.2% 并 非简单统计均值，而是同时契合净稳定资金比例（NSFR）=100%、银行负债盈亏 平衡、货币乘数由 9.0 骤降至 5.5 的三重机制熔断点。依托标准化系数分解 （规避主观赋值偏差），信贷收缩由供给约束（45%）、需求约束（30%）、结 构挤占（25%）复合驱动，终结供需二元对立争议。2015—2025 年测算显示， 累计失踪 M1 达 18.2 万亿元，形成 32.8 万亿元信贷缺口，货币流通速度下 降 0.14 次，从货币结构梗阻维度，揭示扩大内需面临的深层约束。研究为理 解中国货币结构异化提供可量化阈值体系，也为疏通货币传导、破解内需瓶颈 提供实证锚点。

2014 年我国货币信用体系实现信用创造机制范式转型，正式进入以不动产为核心载体的抵押品经济时代。本文识别出中国不动产抵押品的核心结构参数，将其定义为不动产抵押品非对称乘数（Collateral Asymmetry Multiplier，CAM），其中枢估计值为2.37，95%置信区间为[2.16，2.55]。研究选取2001—2025年宏观数据，构建内嵌时变摩擦的不动产抵押品经济模型，综合采用 Bai-Perron 断点检验、NARDL非对称协整模型与历史地理外生工具变量实证识别。检验结果显示，2014年是信用锚转型的显著结构性断点；不动产抵押品下行收缩效应为上行扩张效应的2.37倍，高市场化区域强度放大至3.02倍；不动产抵押品价值波动通过资产负债表渠道抑制居民可选消费与企业投资，动产融资体系缺失持续放大非对称冲击。基于 CAM 参数的识别，提出差异化区域化宏观审慎方案，为信用周期调控提供量化依据。

实体经济盈利承压与虚实经济失衡的矛盾持续凸显，本文将产能约束与金融化 冲击纳入统一分析框架，依托 2010—2025 年中国省级工业面板与制造业上市公司 微观数据，运用面板门槛模型、多期连续双重差分模型与工具变量法，系统检验两 类结构性因素对工业利润的非线性冲击及盈利缓冲机制。研究表明，中国工业盈利 呈现显著的双阈值突变特征：金融化指数非线性临界阈值为 0.22，突破后利润挤出 效应呈非线性放大；产能利用率约束临界阈值为 0.75，低于该值后利润压制效应显 著增强，且金融化冲击强度显著高于产能约束。0.22 阈值对应企业财务费用占利润 总额的 22%，是付息能力的生死临界点，契合民间融资 2 分息极限、利息保障倍数 安全线与监管红色预警线。机制检验发现，阈值突破后金融化通过挤占实业投资、 抬升融资成本形成非效率分配冲击，传统产业升级、出口与逆周期政策的缓冲效应 全面失效。异质性分析显示，民营企业、传统制造业与中西部地区更易突破金融化 临界阈值，盈利受冲击程度更深。本文为划定金融化监管临界值、防范脱实向虚、 提振制造业盈利提供了量化依据与经验支撑。