• 详情 公募基金管理是否有效? ——基于多因素的基金管理能力评价
    本文通过构建多因素的基金管理能力评价体系研究了我国开放式主动管理股票型公募基金的管理有效性。研究发现:(1)公募基金在承担较低风险的情况下获取高于股票市场组合的超额收益率。(2)基于历史收益和持仓数据构建的指标能有效预测基金的未来表现。(3)通过组合这些指标构建的基金管理能力评价体系,择优基金的未来表现显著优于现有的基金评奖体系。这些结果表明,公募基金作为散户投资“机构化”的重要渠道,可以显著提高投资人的收益表现,且基金的管理能力可以被合理的评价体系事前甄别。本文为探讨机构投资者在市场中的作用提供了新的证据和视角,提出的评价体系为帮助监管机构提高公募基金市场资金流配置有效性,阻止资本市场造成的贫富差距扩大具有重要启示作用。
  • 详情 影子银行、银行系统性风险及其传导机制
    本文使用2007-2017年间中国上市银行季度数据,从影子银行体系资金融出方的角度,分析了影子银行与系统性风险之间的关系及其作用渠道。固定效应模型和双重差分模型的结论均显示,影子银行会加剧银行的系统性风险,影子银行规模越大,银行在当期和下两期都会对系统性风险有着更大的暴露。在风险传导机制上,影子银行通过银行个体风险承担、银行间关联度以及风险的放大机制等三大渠道对银行系统性风险产生影响。当银行个体风险越高,银行间关联度越低,以及对负向冲击暴露越大时,影子银行对银行系统性风险影响更显著。
  • 详情 How Does Mandatory Environmental Regulation Affect Corporate Environmental Information Disclosure Quality
    Environmental information disclosure is an effective way for corporate to fulfill environmental protection responsibilities and encourage environmental self-inspection and management. In this paper, we utilize the environment fee to tax reform implemented in 2018 as a quasi-experiment, to investigate the impact of mandatory environmental regulation change on firm environmental information disclosure quality. Using data from listed companies in China between 2015-2020, we found that the mandatary environment regulation positively affects the monetary and non-monetary environmental information disclosure in heavy polluting industries. We also found that, firms with higher environmental subsidies and market value tend to disclose more information. The mechanism analysis shows that external governance and internal control mediate the effect of mandatory environmental regulation on environmental information disclosure quality. Compared to a growing literature on voluntary regulation, our findings provide evidence emphasizing the role of mandatory regulation of government incentives in environmental improvement.
  • 详情 Centralization of Environmental Administration and Air Pollution: Evidence from China
    This paper studies how centralizing environmental administration affected air pollution in China. China launched a vertical administration reform in 2016 to empower upper-level Environmental Protection Bureaus to administer lower-level bureaus vertically through personnel control. Exploiting a stacked difference-in-differences strategy and a regression discontinuity design, we find that the verticalization reform significantly reduced air pollution. The effect was stronger in places where air pollution is less likely to be affected by spillovers from other provinces or where local governments paid less attention to environmental protection before the reform. Additionally, we find that the reform significantly increased the intensity of inspection by local agencies and environmental investments by heavily polluting firms.
  • 详情 Information Spillovers between Carbon Emissions Trading Prices and Shipping Markets: A Time-Frequency Analysis
    Climate change has become mankind’s main challenge. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from shipping are not irresponsible for this, representing 3% of the global total; an amount equal to that of Germany’s emissions. The Fourth Greenhouse Gas Study 2020 of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) predicts that the proportion of GHG emissions from shipping will rise further, as global trade continues to recover and grow, along with the economic development of India, China and Africa. China and the European Union have proposed to include shipping in their carbon emissions trading systems (ETS). As a result, the study of the relationship between the carbon finance market and the shipping industry, attempted here for the first time, is particularly important both for policymakers and shipowners. We use wavelet analysis and the spillover index methods to explore the dynamic dependence and information spillovers between the carbon finance market and shipping. We discover a long-term dependence and information linkages between the two markets, with the carbon finance market being the dominant one. Major events, such as the 2009 global financial crisis; Brexit in 2016; the 2018 China-US trade frictions; and COVID-19 are shown to strengthen the dependence of carbon finance and shipping. We find that the dependence is strongest between the EU carbon finance market and dry bulk shipping, while the link is weaker in the case of tanker shipping. Nonetheless, carbon finance and tanker shipping showed a relatively stronger dependence when OPEC refused to cut production in 2014, and when the China-US trade dispute led to the collapse of oil prices after 2018. We show that information spillovers between carbon finance and shipping are bidirectional and asymmetric. The carbon finance market is the principal transmitter of information. Our results and their interpretation provide guidance to governments on whether (and how) to include shipping in emissions trading schemes, supporting at the same time the environmental sustainability decisions of shipping companies.
  • 详情 The Effect of Air Pollution on Chinese Green Bond Market: The Mediation Role of Public Concern
    It has been confirmed that sustainable investments contributing to environmental protection can benefit from the deterioration of air pollution, but this influence mechanism has not been fully discussed. This paper proposes a mediation model to study air pollution's influence on green bonds. Theoretically, air pollution raises public environmental awareness and perceptions of physical health risks, leading to increased public concern. Enhanced public concern drives investors' green preference and environmental responsibility, thus expanding green bond demand. Our studies show air pollution is significantly positive related to public concern. Public concern positively links with green bond investment willingness, resulting in increased volatility. The total positive effect of air pollution on green bond is partly absorbed by the effect of public concern. These findings confirm the mediation role of public concern. In addition, major crisis events (e.g., COVID-19) may hinder the mediation process by generating a negative trend and distracting the public.
  • 详情 保险能改善对农户的信贷配给吗?——来自822户农户调查的经验证据
    论文在信息不对称的理论框架下,说明保险能够改善信贷活动中的逆向选择和道德风险行为的影响,提高信贷机构的期望利润和放贷意愿。据此,并考虑供给与需求的联系,论文在经验分析中采用四元Probit模型,以陕、苏二省822户农户的入户调查数据为样本,考察了保险之于信贷供给的影响。结果显示:保险的存在总体上显著提高了农户的信贷可得性,但不同类别保险对农业生产性信贷供给的支持作用并不相同。论文研究意味着保险可成为提升农户信贷获取能力,平衡农村信贷机构利润诉求与支农目标的现实可行选择,应进一步挖掘保险的作用,支持构建多样化的信贷保险关联机制。
  • 详情 Insurance Demand Over Varying Coverage Levels: Experimental Evidence from China
    Low demand for crop insurance, even when subsidized at highly favorable rates, remains a challenge for policymakers in developing countries attempting to create insurance-based farm safety nets. Evidence from a series of surveys and experiments with 477 vegetable farmers in China reveals several anomalies in farmers’ demand for crop insurance as well as deviations from predictions under both expected utility theory and cumulative prospect theory. Farmers are willing to pay higher price for neutral-frame risk protection tool than for an insurance-frame equivalent. Moreover, they tend to be more likely to purchase low-coverage than high-coverage insurance, even when high coverage provides greater subsidized value. Among risk- and loss-averse farmers, who theoretically should be more interested in adopting risk protection tools, we find less willingness to purchase high-coverage level insurance.
  • 详情 值得信任、信任他人与保险业的发展——基于省级层面的经验证据
    依托中国省域层面的保险经营数据及世界价值观大型社会调查数据,我们将信任与保险销售之间的关系开创性的从两个角度——“值得信任”与“信任他人”进行了分析,结果表明不同的信任对地区财产险销售业绩具有不同的影响。在回归分析中本文采用了相对滞后的信任数据进行回归分析后,发现以体现商业信誉为主的“值得信任”变量对地区财产险销售具有显著的正向影响,而对风险承担更为敏感的“信任他人”变量则对地区财产险销售具有显著的负向影响。与既有的文献结论类似,财产险经营与地区信任的关系并不适用于人身险。
  • 详情 崩溃的墙:加密货币与非加密货币市场之间通过稳定币的风险传导
    The crypto and noncrypto markets used to be separated from each other. We argue that with the rapid development of stablecoins since 2018, risks are now transmitted between the crypto and noncrypto markets through stablecoins, which are both pegged to noncrypto assets and play a central role in crypto trading. Applying copula-based CoVaR approaches, we find significant risk spillovers between stablecoins and cryptocurrencies as well as between stablecoins and noncrypto markets, which could help explain the tail dependency between the crypto and noncrypto markets from 2019 to 2021. We also document that the risk spillovers through stablecoins are asymmetric—stronger in the direction from the US dollar to the crypto market than vice versa—which suggests the crypto market is re-dollarizing. Further analyses consider alternative explanations, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and institutional crypto holdings, and determine that the primary channels of risk transmission are stablecoins' US dollar peg to the noncrypto market and their transaction-medium function in the crypto ecosystem. Our results have important implications for financial stability and shed light on the future of stablecoin regulation.