Studying China’s credit market, we find improved price efficiency and, paradoxically, worsening segmentation as perceived government support for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) caused non-SOE credit spreads to explode rather dramatically relative to their SOE counterparts amid government-led credit tightening. Interestingly, the post-2018 credit-market stress helped improve price efficiency within non-SOEs, while SOEs saw no such improvement and instead became sensitive to issuer-level measures of government support, marking a shift of SOE premium beyond the SOE label. We further document the real impact of the deepening credit misallocations: non-SOEs in aggregate are losing their long-standing advantage in profitability over SOEs in China.

This paper studies the economic impact of the emergence of FinTech platforms on financial intermediation. In China, platform distributions of mutual funds emerged in 2012 and grew quickly into a formidable presence. Utilizing the staggered fund entrance onto platforms, we find markedly increased flow sensitivities to performance. Akin to the winner-take-all phenomenon in the platform economy, net flow captured by top 10% performing funds more than triples its pre-platform level. This pattern of platform-induced performance chasing is further confirmed using private data from Howbuy, a top platform in China. Consistent with this added incentive of becoming top performers in the era of large-scale platforms, fund managers increase risk taking to enhance the probability of becoming top performers. Meanwhile, organizational cohesiveness of fund families weakens as platforms level the playing field for all funds.

We examine whether investor behavior can be influenced by the social norms to which they are exposed. Specifically, we test two competing hypotheses regarding the influence of social trust on the disposition effect related to mutual fund investment. On the one hand, a higher level of social trust may elicit stronger investor reactions by increasing the credibility of the performance numbers reported by funds. This results in higher flow-performance sensitivity, which mitigates investors’ tendency to sell winners and hold onto losers. On the other hand, societal trust may reduce concerns about expropriation, thereby weakening investors’ need to react to poor performance. The resulting lower flow-performance sensitivity increases the disposition effect. Based on a proprietary dataset of complete account-level trading information for all investors in a large mutual fund family in China, we find compelling evidence 1) of a significant disposition effect among fund investors; 2) that a higher degree of social trust is associated with higher flow-performance sensitivity; and 3) that (high) trust-induced flows mitigate the disposition effect. Our results suggest that, in addition to cognitive biases, investor behavior is also strongly influenced by social norms.

本文基于城投债和地方债的发行和交易数据构建了各省地方债务风险综合指标，发现各省风险有共同的趋势，存在风险联动现象。为了研究我国地方政府债务省际风险传导机制，本文运用含外生变量的结构化向量自回归模型（SVAR）来识别风险传导途径和重点风险地区。 实证发现本文设定的风险关联关系矩阵是地方债务风险传导的重要途径， 可以很好的解释地方债务风险的共同趋势。进一步地，我们通过广义预测误差方差分解衡量了各省的风险传导性， 并在此基础上通过脉冲响应分析发现吉林省风险正向冲击对其他省份有持续显著的正向影响。此外， 本文还从地方财政收入构成角度考察了影响地方债务风险传导性的主要因素。 本文的研究为防控和治理地方债务风险具有重要价值。

We study the consequences of market uncertainty on international trade. An increase in foreign market uncertainty dampens China's aggregate exports on both the extensive and intensive margins. The adverse effects are more pronounced in industries facing tighter financial constraints than in others. We propose a dynamic trade model to explain the facts. Greater uncertainty depresses a firm's expected value of exporting and borrowing capacity, leading to fewer exporters and a smaller average size of exports. Under calibrated parameters, the uncertainty shock accounts for a sizable fraction of China's trade collapse in the 2008 financial crisis and the recent trade war.

In this paper, we examine the spillover effect of US monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) on China's real economic activities, and study the international transmission mechanisms of MPU shock from the view of financial integration, on both aggregate and firm level. Based on the macro level evidences, we find that an increase in US MPU will depress not only domestic output but also the real economic activities in China. The international spillover effect of US MPU shock will be intensified when international financial markets get more integrated. The firm level evidence based on Chinese listed firms further corroborate the deflationary effect of US MPU shock. Theoretically, we build a two-country New Keynesian DSGE model featuring monetary uncertainty shocks to confirm the empirical evidences.

本文选用 2011-2018 年省级面板数据作为研究样本，构建线性面板模型及面板门槛模型，验证数字 普惠金融的发展对城乡收入差距的影响及其门槛效应，并进一步进行中介效应检验。研究结果显示，数字 普惠金融的发展能有效缩小城乡居民收入差距，且具有门槛效应，在经济发展初期，这一收敛作用效果更 为明显。中介效应分析推断出数字普惠金融能缩小城乡居民收入差距并且促进经济发展，而经济发展水平 的提升却能小幅度地扩大城乡居民收入差距，但总体来说，仍以数字普惠金融对城乡居民收入差距的收敛 作用为主导效应。

金融集聚、经济发展和生态效率的互动关系存在耦合特征，利用协同学思想构建三者之间的耦合协调度模型，并对 2008-2013 年中国省域金融集聚、经济发展和生态效率耦合协调发展进行分析。结果表明：①时序变化上，省域金融集聚、经济发展和生态效率系统耦合度和耦合协调度变 化趋势基本趋同，大致呈现同步稳定上升态势，耦合度均值为 0.316，处于拮抗阶段；耦合协调度 均值为 0.318，处于低度耦合协调阶段；②空间分异上，省域金融集聚、经济发展和生态效率系统 耦合度和耦合协调度都存在明显的地域性差异，耦合协调度呈现出东部省域普遍高于中西部省域的特征，并且与省域经济发展水平存在很大的空间对应关系；③空间组合上，呈现了三类和三型共七种类型，失调发展类、轻度失调类和濒临失调类所占比重分别为：42%、45%和 13%，北京市和上海市表现为生态效率滞后型，金融集聚滞后型和经济发展滞后型省域占比分别为 71%和 23%。

随着互联网金融在我国的发展，网络借贷产品在家庭资产配置中逐渐受到青睐。本文以 2010 年 1 月 1 日至 2014 年 12 月 31 日中国日均交易量最大的 P2P 平台——红岭创投（www.my089.com）所有有效成功借款为研究样本， 发现股票市场投资者情绪对于网络借贷溢酬的整体线性影响为正向的溢出效应， 但适度情绪下的溢出效应与极端情绪下的传染效 应共同作用的结果在高次项加入回归时发现存在降低-提高-降低的 S 型效应， 说明在极端情绪下，负向的传染效会成为主导。 进一步利用借款项目逾期情况与借款基本信息进行 Probit 回归， 发现高潜在违约率的项目股市的投资者情绪对借款溢酬的影响仍符合 S 型， 但低潜在违约率的项目传染效应会弱化， 这说明投资者能够在极端情绪下识别低风险项目， 并能发 现它的避险功能。

随着互联网的普及与发展， 网络购物不断地改变着人们的消费习惯和社会的消费模式。 本文用 LA/EASI 拓展模型和似无关回归模型(SUR) 相结合的组合研究模式来分析网络购物（ 网购） 对我国中老年家庭消费结构的影响。 首先， 借助模糊量来构造一个能刻画网购影响程度的指标；其次， 利用 LA/EASI 拓展模型分析网购对中国中老年家庭消费结构的影响； 再次，利用 SUR 模型的 FGLS 估计方法消费需求模型进行估计；最后，采用聚类分析方法探讨网购对不同消费倾向的中老年家庭消费结构的影响。 实证分析结果表明： 1） 网购不仅对中老年家庭消费结构具有显著的影响， 还对中老年家庭消费结构的影响具有时变性； 2）网购对我国城乡中老年家庭消费结构的影响存在差异； 3）对于不同消费倾向的中老年家庭，网购对其影响的结果是不一样的。 基于以上分析，本文最后对网购今后的发展提出了相应的建议。