• 详情 工业元宇宙赋能肇庆市制造业发展新质生产力 的路径与对策研究*
    本文研究了元宇宙和工业元宇宙的基本概念及其主要相关技术的特点,指出工业元宇宙是工业乃至产业数字化、智能化发展的全新阶段。介绍了国内外若干制造企业工业元宇宙的实践成效;指出全域数字化转型为肇庆推动产业升级、培育数字经济新动能提供了重要契机。阐述了工业元宇宙是肇庆数字经济与实体经济融合发展的新时空,是大湾区发展新质生产力的助推器,是新型工业化发展的重要推动力量。针对肇庆不同区域在推进工业元宇宙中的不均衡现象,建议推动大数据、云计算、人工智能、区块链等新兴技术与传统产业的深度融合,形成产业集群效应,提升产业整体竞争力;提出了完善顶层设计、强化统筹协调、构建全面场景示范、构建协同集聚生态、构建技术攻关体系、推进区域创新要素整合共享、构建区域制造业创新协同机制等建议。
  • 详情 Peer Md&A Risk Disclosure and Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Accuracy: Evidence from China
    In this study, we investigate whether and how risk disclosure in peer firms’ management discussion and analysis (MD&A) influences analyst earnings forecast accuracy. We find that peer MD&A risk disclosure significantly improves forecast accuracy, demonstrating a positive spillover effect. Moreover, the impact of peer MD&A risk disclosure on analysts’ forecast accuracy strengthens with the comparability and reliability of peer firms’ information, while weakens with the disclosure quality of the focal firm. Finally, peer MD&A risk disclosure also reduces stock price crash risk, providing further evidence that it improves information environment of the focal firm.
  • 详情 Beyond Financial Statements: Does Operational Information Disclosure Mitigate Crash Risk?
    Previous studies on the impact of corporate information disclosure on stock price crash risk have largely focused on financial statements. In contrast, China’s unique monthly operating report disclosure system—featuring high frequency and realtime operational data—offers a distinct information channel. Using data from A-share listed firms from 2010 to 2021, we find that monthly operating report disclosures significantly reduce stock price crash risk by alleviating information asymmetry between firms and external stakeholders. The underlying mechanisms involve restraining managerial opportunism and correcting investor expectation biases. Further analysis shows that firms’ official responses to investor inquiries has no significant effect on crash risk once monthly operational disclosures are accounted for, underscoring that the quality of information disclosed is as important as its frequency. The risk-reducing effect is more pronounced among firms with greater business complexity, weaker internal controls, and lower institutional ownership.
  • 详情 The Local Influence of Fund Management Company Shareholders on Fund Investment Decisions and Performance
    This paper investigates how the geographical distribution of shareholders in Chinese mutual fund management companies influences investment decisions. We show that mutual funds are more inclined to hold and overweight stocks from regions where their shareholders are located, thus capitalizing on a local information advantage. By examining changes in fund holdings in response to shifts in the shareholder base, we rule out the possibility that these effects are driven by fund managers’ local biases. Our findings reveal that stocks from the same region as the fund’s shareholders tend to outperform and significantly contribute to the fund’s overall performance.
  • 详情 Geopolitical Risks, Inflation Pressure, and the U.S. Treasury Yield Curve
    The U.S. Treasury yields reached a 20-year high under acute inflation pressure in the post-pandemic era amid aggravated geopolitical conflicts. To quantify the underlying effects of regional geopolitical risks (GPRs) of key U.S. strategic interests, we employ an extended affine term structure model with unspanned GPRs and conventional macroeconomic drivers. We find that GPR shocks, particularly those manifesting U.S.-China rivalry, contribute more to expectations and variations of inflation and yields than shocks to U.S. macroeconomic variables. The results warn on the adequacy of monetary policy in curbing inflation in a fragmented global order with escalating GPRs.
  • 详情 Openness and Growth: A Comparison of the Experiences of China and Mexico
    In the late 1980s, Mexico opened itself to international trade and foreign investment, followed in the early 1990s by China. China and Mexico are still the two countries characterized as middle-income by the World Bank with the highest levels of merchandise exports. Although their measures of openness have been comparable, these two countries have had sharply different economic performances: China has achieved spectacular growth, whereas Mexico’s growth has been disappointingly modest. In this article, we extend the analysis of Kehoe and Ruhl (2010) to account for the differences in these experiences. We show that China opened its economy while it was still achieving rapid growth from shifting employment out of agriculture and into manufacturing while Mexico opened long after its comparable phase of structural transformation. China is only now catching up with Mexico in terms of GDP per working-age person, and it still lags behind in terms of the fraction of its population engaged in agriculture. Furthermore, we argue that China has been able to move up a ladder of quality and technological sophistication in the composition of its exports and production, while Mexico seems to be stuck exporting a fixed set of products to its North American neighbors.
  • 详情 Measuring and Advancing Smart Growth: A Comparative Evaluation of Wuhu and Colima
    In the mid-1990s, the concept of smart growth emerged in the United States as a critical response to the phenomenon of suburban sprawl. To promote sustainable urban development, it is necessary to further investigate the principles and applications of smart growth. In this paper, we proposed a Smart Growth Index (SGI) as a standard for measuring the degree of responsible urban development. Based on this index, we constructed a comprehensive 3E evaluation model—covering economic prosperity, social equity, and environmental sustainability—to systematically assess the level of smart growth. For empirical analysis, we selected two medium-sized cities from different continents: Wuhu County, China, and Colima, Mexico. Using an improved entropy method, we evaluated the degree of smart growth in recent years and analyzed the contributions of various policies to sustainable urban development. Then, guided by the ten principles of smart growth, we linked theoretical insights to practical challenges and formulated a development plan for both cities. To forecast long-term trends, we employed trend extrapolation based on historical data, enabling the prediction of SGI values for 2020, 2030, and 2050. The results indicate that Wuhu demonstrates a greater potential for smart growth compared with Colima. We also simulated a scenario in which the population of both cities increased by 50 percent and then re-evaluated the SGI. The analysis suggests that while rapid population growth tends to slow the pace of smart growth, it does not necessarily exert a negative impact on the overall trajectory of sustainable development. Finally, a study on the application of Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) theory in Wuhu County was conducted. Based on this analysis, we proposed several policy recommendations aimed at enhancing the city’s sustainable urban development.
  • 详情 Benchmark Discrepancies in the Chinese Mutual Fund Market
    The benchmark discrepancy phenomenon arises when fund managers deviate from their stated benchmarks. We investigate benchmark discrepancy in China's mutual fund market by analyzing holdings data from all actively managed funds and document its widespread prevalence. However, in China – unlike in the U.S. – benchmark discrepancy reduces relative performance and capital inflows. We also examine the characteristics of fund managers exhibiting benchmark discrepancies and find they are more likely to be male, highly educated, and professionally experienced.
  • 详情 A Tale of Two Cities: Suzhou, Shenzhen, and Decentralization
    Suzhou and Shenzhen are among the top cities in China by GDP, and both have performed exceedingly well in terms of cultivating technological industries and attracting foreign investment. This is in spite of the fact that neither city is a provincial capital nor a centrally administered city like Shanghai and Beijing. Yet, the two cities embody very different administrative models with respect to their relationship with the provincial and central governments. Shenzhen, in particular, has a closer relationship with the central government than almost any non-centrally administered city in China, whereas Suzhou is a city that remains closely in coordination with the provincial government even as its economy has grown by leaps and bounds. This begs the question of which city's model will prevail moving forward: the Shenzhen model, typified by "re-centralization" of power, or the Suzhou model, which represents more of the conventional regional decentralization model that has been prevalent in China since the 1980s. The article attempts to argue that even though Shenzhen is of pivotal importance to the central government's policies, it will remain an outlier for the time being so as to avoid disturbing the delicate balance between the central and provincial governments, barring an unforeseen economic or political crisis.
  • 详情 IPO Lottery, Mutual Fund Performance, and Market Stability
    This paper examines how profits from mutual funds’ participation in initial public offerings (IPOs) shape fund performance, investor flows, and market stability in China. Using comprehensive fund–IPO matched data from 2016 to 2023, we decompose fund returns into an IPO-lottery component and residual performance. At the aggregate level, IPO allocations add 2.05% to annualized excess returns; net of IPOs, excess return is −0.35% per year. At the individual level, the contribution of IPO profits varies substantially across funds and is most pronounced among mid-sized funds, inflating perceived managerial skill. Funds with higher IPO-driven gains attract greater inflows despite the absence of performance persistence, leading to capital misallocation. At the market level, IPO-profit-induced trading (PIT) predicts short horizon price run-ups that dissipate and reverse over subsequent months, while raising both total and idiosyncratic volatility. Overall, IPO profits temporarily enhance reported performance but erode market stability by propagating non-fundamental shocks through secondary markets.