持续的人民币汇率升值预期已经成为影响我国汇率形成机制改革和金融稳定的重要问题，其背后的影响因素亟需进一步的研究。本文从经济基本面、汇率制度和国际因素三个维度选择影响汇率预期的13个经济变量，利用因子分析法对经济基本面维度变量进行降维处理，再进行因子回归分析，发现贸易差额因子、即期汇率走势和美元指数是影响短期汇率预期的主要因素，而竞争优势因子、美元指数和国际政治压力是影响中长期汇率预期的主要因素。更进一步地，本文进行递归方差分解分析，发现美元指数和贸易差额对短期汇率预期波动的贡献度较大；而净对外资产和BS效应对中长期汇率预期波动的贡献较大。

In order to examine the new RMB exchange rate regime rigorously, we employ the STARTZ model to investigate the behavior of RMB NEER from June 1, 2006 to May 30, 2008, We find that a managed float with a target central parity and without an explicit band best describes the daily movement of the exchange rate between RMB and a basket of currencies. We also find some peculiar attributes of the RMB NEER such as small conditional variance and stronger effects of government interventions in foreign exchange market.

如何缓解中小企业信贷困境始终困扰着中国的金融监管当局。本文选取中国各地区1999－2007年间工业企业的面板数据，具体考察了银行业规模结构对中小企业银行信贷的影响。结果显示，相比大型企业，中小企业获得的银行贷款更少、期限结构更短。同时，我们发现随着中小银行市场份额的上升，中小企业与大型企业银行信贷之间的差异随之缩小。这表明，在我国经济转型期间，大力发展中小银行有助于缓解中小企业的融资困境。最后，我们发现中小银行市场份额的上升显著促进了经济增长。

世界各国政府积极推行通货膨胀目标政策，导致了今天的资产泡沫，价格的发散以及全球性通胀，而利率的长期偏离又可能再一次将世界经济拖入泥潭。本文建立了具有工资和价格粘性的新凯恩斯小型开放经济模型，分析了Ramsey均衡下的最优通货膨胀以及与之对应的最优利率。分析表明：开放经济中最优的通货膨胀率为负的零边界，与之对应的最优名义利率为通胀与资本的实际回报比例之和，通胀和利率成配对最优关系，即通胀政策要求与之匹配的利率政策；同时，在开放经济中，Ramsey均衡的通胀和利率政策对本国的一价定律缺口及本国的贸易条件具有改善趋势，这并不意味着，紧缩型的最优通胀和大于零的最优实际利率会引致开放经济中本国处于不利的外部均衡位置，而是具有更多的贸易条件优势，更重要的是在有管理的浮动汇率机制下，Ramsey均衡的通胀和利率政策将会使本国汇率具有贬值趋势，能够确保本国在国际贸易和国际金融市场中具有稳定的优势。

本文基于银行与小企业有限理性的假设，运用演化经济学的非对称进化博弈方法分析了小企业融资问题，认为企业能否得到贷款与银行等金融机构的规模无关，而与企业项目的成功概率、抵押物的变现净额、企业贷款申请成本等高度相关，在此基础上提出了解决小企业融资问题重点应放在建立利于小企业股权融资的金融体系与制度环境、大力发展小企业融资担保体系、降低小企业融资成本等政策建议。

This paper consists of two parts. In the first part, through the calculation of “binomial correlation measure”, we suggest that from the perspective of default correlation it would be better to use structural approach rather than reduced form approach for pricing derivatives with two counterparties and its CVA calculation unless default intensities follow jump-diffusion process in latter one. In the second part, we derive the pricing model for CDS with counterparty risk and its CVA calculation by Black-Cox first passage time model in structural approach. Different from most of the previous paper our recovery is based on the CDS with counterparty risk, so the pricing model is a boundary-value problem of fully-nonlinear PDE. To solve it, we introduce an approximation problem by penalty model in reduced form approach by assuming an incentive function. Also finite element method and iteration approach are used. The numerical results show the convergence of approximation problem, iteration problem and finite element method, a comparison between CVA with different recovery rules and also the impact of wrong-way risk and right-way risk on CVA.

本文修改自某保险集团的客户数据挖掘报告，作者使用SPSS MODELER数据挖掘软件，遵从CRISP-DM数据挖掘方法论，对寿险个人客户的现金流价值及业务价值按商业理解、数据理解、数据准备、建立模型、模型评估和模型发布六步骤进行了数据挖掘，得到了数据模型和数据挖掘结论，并相应提出了寿险个人客户分类分级方案的建议和其它支持寿险业务发展的具体建议。本数据挖掘形成的政策建议包括：寿险个人客户可以按现金流价值和业务价值结合的方法进行客户的分类分级，客户分级用于对外宣传，客户分类用于内部管理，客户分级应比客户分类简单；此外，建议寿险公司重点开发适销高年龄段的高价值保险产品，建议加强对已婚客户的拓展力度，建议深入研究女性客户的保险购买行为心理等，以有效提高保险公司客户的现金流价值和业务价值。

Insurance was one of industries that were opened very first after China’s accession to the WTO in 2001. During 2002 to 2005, there was a peak of the foreign insurers’ entry, with the rapid growth of their market share. However, in recent years, the foreign insurers found themselves not able to grow as fast as they have expected, which was described as their “Seven Year Itch” in China. Several cases of equity transactions have taken place in 2009-2010, mainly involved with the foreign insurers reducing their shareholdings. This was regarded as the sign of foreign insurers changing their strategies in Chinese market. In this paper we found strong evidence to show that the current performance of foreign insurers in China was relatively worse than that in the other major insurance markets. From the comparison of the regulatory environment and market performance, we can say for sure that regulation restrictions should be at least one of the major reasons for the current situation. Also we found that the “50-50” shareholding structure which was adopted initially by many life foreign insurers could be blamed for the slow growth recently. And poor bancassurance business performance could explain the shareholding reductions recently for some of the foreign life insurers.

基于保险监管视角，借鉴欧盟“偿付能力II”相关理论，对市场风险运用幂阶转换在险价值（Normal Power Approximation Value-at-Risk），并进行波动率时间序列建模；对保险风险运用精算模型；对信用风险和操作风险则借用巴塞尔新资本协议的相关标准模型，实证分析了我国财险公司的偿付能力资本需求。结果显示：偿付能力资本需求（Solvency capital requirement, SCR）是最低资本需求（Minimal capital requirement, MCR）的1.928倍，表明以风险为基础计算的资本需求远大于基于业务量大小的资本需求。

诉讼是一种高成本解决利益冲突的方式，一般是在双方关系僵持到破裂甚至公开对立时才使用。当银行对不能及时归还借款本息的企业提起诉讼时，一方面破坏了银企关系，作为一种惩罚也破坏了声誉的隐性契约作用，其“社会实施”机制导致企业原有的声誉资产丧失，造成了企业信贷融资规模的大幅下降，与同行业的其他企业相比也有显著差异。对不同所有权性质企业的检验结果表明，国有企业借款可得性受到的影响要比非国有企业小，政府的“援助之手”为国有企业提供隐形担保，信贷歧视现象依然存在。而与政府结交、建立政治关联，可以有效缓解非国有企业的信贷困难。