We examine how mutual funds form stock market expectations and the implications of these beliefs for asset returns, using a novel text-based measure extracted from Chinese fund reports. Funds extrapolate from recent stock market and fund returns when forming expectations, with more recent returns receiving greater weight. This recency tendency is weaker among more experienced managers. At the aggregate level, consensus expectations positively predict short-term future market returns, both in and out of sample. At the fund level, expectations are positively related to subsequent fund performance in the time series. In the cross-section, however, superior performance arises only when funds accurately forecast market direction and adjust their portfolios accordingly. This effect is stronger for optimistic forecasts and among funds with greater exposure to liquid stocks. Our findings highlight the conditional nature of belief-driven performance, shaped jointly by forecasting skill and the ability to implement views in the presence of execution frictions such as short-selling and liquidity constraints.

With fintech growth and smartphone adoption, e-wallets, which enable instant transactions while offering cash management products with financial returns, have become increasingly prevalent. Using a unique dataset from Alipay, the world’s largest e-wallet provider, we find that holdings in Yu’EBao—an investment product usable for payments—are less affected by interest rate changes than similar assets without payment functions. This effect is stronger for users who depend on Yu’EBao for daily spending, during peak payment periods, or among less experienced investors. Our findings show that Yu’EBao reduces retail fund flow to riskier assets by 7.7% for every one-percentage-point interest rate cut, dampening monetary policy transmission through the portfolio rebalancing channel.

随着互联网经济的发展,互联网评论渗透在人们生活的方方面面。为了研究Twitter上关于新能 源汽车的大量评论情绪是否是TESLA的股价波动产生的原因, 本论文假设从Twitter收集到的用户情绪 数据与TESLA股票市场价格相关。并采取CS新能车指数399976和Twitter上的关于新能源汽车的评论情 绪数据与CS新能源车指数的股价数据进行格兰杰因果检验。研究结果表明中国投资者情绪是指数价格 变化的主要原因,且投资者对新能源汽车指数的正面冲击是短期的,长期来看情绪对股票价格的影响将 会消失。

就业是最基本的民生，也是实现高质量发展的重要目标。实施包括地方政府债务置换在内的“逆周期”财政调节政策对促进企业劳动力雇佣、实现“稳就业”目标具有重大意义。本文从产业关联度视角出发，基于2010-2016年全国税收调查数据，采用广义双重差分法实证检验了债务置换政策对企业劳动雇佣的影响。研究发现，债务置换具有“稳就业”效应，并且与政府关联度更高的基建行业受到债务置换影响更为显著，机制分析结果表明，债务置换通过缓解企业融资约束，促进欠款偿还缓解企业流动性约束，改善企业预期等机制促进企业劳动力雇佣。本文的研究对准确评估2024年开始的新一轮债务置换政策效果，优化“逆周期”财政政策设计、实现“稳就业”目标具有重要的意义。

本文以2011—2023年A股市场存续的全部股票型ETF基金为样本，基于多期双重差分法（DID）识别流动性服务业务引入对ETF跟踪误差的影响效应。研究发现，引入流动性服务机制可显著降低ETF的跟踪误差，该结论在通过了一系列稳健性检验。机制检验表明，流动性服务商激励改善与市场交易条件优化是跟踪误差降低的主要传导路径，机构投资者比例提升进一步强化流动性服务的政策效应。异质性分析显示，优化复制策略、宽基指数ETF与中小规模产品受益更为显著。进一步研究发现，该机制显著改善了流动性基础薄弱ETF的跟踪误差，缓解了市场“马太效应”。本文从制度演变的视角系统揭示了ETF市场流动性服务机制的微观传导与结构性影响，为提升ETF基金运行质量与健全ETF市场功能提供了实证支持与政策启示。

This study shows how price limit rules, intended to stabilize markets, inadvertently distort price dynamics by fostering strategic speculation. Through a dynamic rational expectations model, we demonstrate that price limits induce post limit-up price jumps by impeding full information incorporation, enabling speculators to artificially push prices to upper bounds and exploit uninformed traders. The model predicts two distinct patterns: (1) stocks closing at price limits exhibit positive overnight returns followed by long-term reversals, and (2) stocks retreating from upper bounds suffer sharp reversals with partial recovery. Empirical analysis confirms these predictions. A natural experiment from China’s 2020 GEM reform —- which widened the price limit -— further provides causal evidence that relaxed limits mitigate speculative distortions.

随着中国经济转型与绿色发展的深入，绿色全要素生产率逐渐成为衡量区域绿色发展与经济效率的重要指标。本文基于2006—2022年中国279个地级市的面板数据，通过双重差分模型实证分析了科技金融对绿色全要素生产率与绿色全要素生产率区域差距的影响。研究发现：（1）科技金融显著提高了绿色全要素生产率并缩小了绿色全要素生产率区域差距。（2）科技金融可通过提升财政投资力度与绿色基金规模助力绿色全要素生产率提升与绿色全要素生产率区域差距的缩小。（3）科技金融对绿色全要素生产率与绿色全要素生产率区域差距存在城市规模、城市特征与地理区域的异质性影响。（4）科技金融对绿色全要素生产率存在显著的正向空间溢出效应，对绿色全要素生产率区域差距存在显著的负向空间溢出效应。研究不仅从绿色全要素生产率与绿色全要素生产率区域差距的角度深化了科技金融影响的研究，也为理解科技金融对区域协调发展的作用提供了理论依据。

本文基于研发“投入—产出”弹性构建研发回报指标，发现制造业技术前沿化提升了企业研发回报。结构分析显示，行业与国际技术前沿均促进研发回报，其中国际前沿作用更显著。作用机制体现为投融资协同与供需协同两个方面。异质性研究表明，高精尖行业/企业对技术前沿化敏感度更高；创新型产业集群及制度保障完善区域的促进效应更明显。经济后果分析发现，技术前沿化对研发回报的提升存在长期影响，其通过创新成果转化提高企业生产效率与经营业绩。

本文以沪深港通交易制度实施为准自然实验，选取2011-2023年沪深A股上市公司数据，探究金融开放对企业产品竞争力的影响机制。研究发现：（1）沪深港通交易制度的实施显著提升了企业的产品竞争力，此结论经过一系列稳健性检验后仍成立；（2）机制检验表明，沪深港通交易制度主要通过两条路径来提升企业产品竞争力，一是竞争压力倒逼效应，推动企业实施产品差异化战略和提升创新能力，重塑竞争优势。二是资源配置效应，通过优化人力资本结构，改善融资环境和拓展出口渠道，帮助企业实现要素升级，进而增强产品竞争力；（3）异质性检验发现，政策效果在资本密集型行业、盈利能力低及环境信息披露质量低样本中更为显著。本文丰富了金融开放对企业影响的实证研究，为党的二十大提出的“推进高水平制度型开放”提供了微观证据。

Using unique account-level data from a leading Chinese fintech platform, we investigate how financial influencers, the key information intermediaries in social finance, attract followers through a process of social transmission bias. We document a robust performance-following pattern wherein retail investors overextrapolate influencers’ past returns rather than rational learning in the social network from their past performance. The transmission bias is amplified by two mechanisms: (1) influencers’ active social engagement and (2) their index fund-heavy portfolios. Evidence further reveals influencers’self-enhancing reporting through selective performance disclosure. Crucially, the dynamics ultimately increase risk exposure and impair returns for follower investors.