The high-penetration integration of renewable energy requires huge demand for reliable capacity resources, and the coal-fired units are the main providers of the reliable capacity in China. This study proposes a future-oriented approach to facilitate coal-fired power’ transition through capacity market development. Focusing on China’s power market reform context, we propose a two-stage capacity market mechanism integrating annual capacity auctions and monthly capacity bidding, and design the procedural and transactional framework for coal-fired power participation. We further outline three market strategies including energy market trading, centralized capacity market trading, and renewable energy alliance leasing. Environmental costs are incorporated to construct revenue models and derive boundary conditions for coal-fired units’ decision-making. Research results reveal that current capacity prices fail to cover costs, requiring substantial market-driven price increases to achieve profitability. While stable capacity revenue can reduce medium-to-long-term and spot market prices, fostering competition between coal-fired power and renewable energy resources. However, coal-fired power remains highly sensitive to price volatility, demanding robust resilience to fluctuations. Carbon prices significantly influence capacity prices, yet excessive free carbon quota allocations weaken carbon price transmission effects, necessitating optimized quota ratios to enhance market responsiveness. Finally, policy implications are proposed according to the research results.

Prefabricated buildings(PBs) have significant advantages in improving construction efficiency, saving resources, and reducing environmental pollution. They have become an important direction for transforming and upgrading the global construction industry. However, the high construction costs have severely restricted their large-scale adoption. To systematically explore the key influencing factors and the mechanism of the construction cost of PBs, this study uses the method of combining interpretative structural model (ISM) and structural equation model (SEM), identifies the main influencing factors by synthesizing literature and data analysis, analyze hierarchical relationships between these factors via ISM, and quantifies the influence intensity and mechanism of the construction cost by SEM method. The results show that the driving factors of the construction cost of PBs can be divided into several levels. The core factors, such as the assembly rate, the production scale of prefabricated components, the integration of design management, the technical level of designers, and the specialization of prefabricated components in the factory, play a crucial role in cost optimization. In conclusion, this study deeply reveals the impact mechanism of the construction cost of PBs, offers practical guidance for reducing construction costs and optimizing resource allocation, and provides a scientific basis for government policy-making and enterprise strategic decision-making.

随着我国人口老龄化程度持续加深，银发经济已成为推动社会经济发展与产业结构升级的重要战略领域。在物质生活基本保障得到满足的前提下，老年人的精神文化需求日益旺盛，推动了一个涵盖文旅、教育、娱乐、数字内容等多维度的新兴消费市场迅猛发展。然而，该市场在快速扩张的同时，也暴露出供给结构失衡、产品质量参差、消费者权益保障机制不健全以及数字鸿沟加深等多重风险。本文立足于风险管理理论框架，综合运用文献分析、案例研究与逻辑推演等方法，系统性地识别并剖析了当前我国老年人精神文化消费市场面临的主要风险，包括市场供给端的同质化与低质化风险、消费信息不对称引发的决策风险、权益受损后的救济渠道不畅风险、技术快速迭代下的适应与安全风险，以及社会支持网络薄弱带来的可持续性风险。研究发现，这些风险的形成是政策制度、市场机制、社会文化及个体因素共同作用的结果。基于此，本文借鉴国内外先进经验，尝试构建一个多层次、系统化的风险管理策略体系：在政策层面，倡导制定专项发展规划与行业标准；在市场层面，激励产品创新与构建信用评价机制；在技术层面，推动适老化改造与强化数据安全；在社会层面，完善社区支持网络与培育专业社会组织；在个体与家庭层面，着力提升老年群体的数字素养与风险防范意识。本研究旨在为引导银发经济健康发展、切实保障老年消费者合法权益、提升其精神文化生活品质提供理论参考与实践路径。

This study identifies a significant settlement effect in China’s equity options market, where price decline and pre-settlement return momentum exists on the settlement Friday (T+2) due to a temporal misalignment between option expiration (T) and the T+1 trading rule for the underlying asset. We attribute this phenomenon to three distinct behavioral channels: closing pressure from put option unwinding, momentum-generating predatory trading by futures-spot arbitrageurs exploiting liquidity fragility, and an announcement effect that attenuates the anomaly by adjusting spot speculators' expectations. Robust empirical analysis identifies predatory trading as the primary driver of the settlement effect.These findings offer critical insights for market microstructure theory and the design of physically-delivered derivatives.

本文利用2006至2015年期间A股IPO申购资金冻结政策，研究周期性流动性紧缩对货币市场和债券市场的影响。我们发现，IPO申购资金冻结显著推高主要货币市场利率：银行间隔夜回购利率、交易所隔夜回购利率和隔夜Shibor平均分别上升12.4、38.3和11.6个基点，且利率上升幅度与IPO资金冻结规模呈显著正相关关系。IPO资金冻结同时造成货币市场交易量和交易结构出现显著变化。此外，IPO资金冻结还推高部分债券市场利率，引发企业、金融机构甚至政府为应对流动性紧张而改变债券发行计划，各类信用债乃至国债在IPO资金冻结期间的日均发行量普遍下降20%至30%。最后，我们发现虽然央行会在IPO资金冻结期间通过逆回购向金融市场注入流动性，然而并不足以抵消IPO资金冻结造成的冲击。本文揭示了流动性冲击的跨市场溢出效应，强调了金融政策跨市场协调在防范系统性金融风险方面的重要性。

We examine how social networks shaped by high-speed rail connections influence investor attention and market reactions to earnings announcements in China. Firms in high-centrality cities exhibit stronger immediate and subsequent responses in investor attention, stock price, and trading volume to earnings news. Further analysis shows that earnings-induced local attention predicts future attention spillovers to intercity investors, amplifying both price and volume reactions after announcements. Overall, these findings indicate that high-speed rail networks foster investor social networks that facilitate the dissemination of firm news and help explain predictable patterns in investor behavior and market pricing.

本文利用成都市温江区老年助餐补贴试点街道老年人调查数据，借鉴条件价值法（CVM），提出以老年人受助意愿为基础、按行动能力等级实施差异化补贴，测算了不同行动能力老年人对老年助餐的受助意愿，据此判断当前制定的补贴标准是否适中，以及针对不同行动能力老年人应是否制定差异化补贴标准。研究结果显示：（1）由于忽视了助餐补贴金额选择意愿中当社会支持、健康维护与生活便利等非经济因素对老年群体接受助餐补贴金额意愿的影响，按照当前补贴标准，政府对老年群体助餐补贴整体补贴不足；（2）不同行动能力条件下，老年目标群体对助餐补贴金额的意愿存在显著差异，政府需考虑针对不同行动能力老年群体制定差异化补贴。最后，本文还就研究中存在的一些局限进行了讨论，以期为后续老年助餐补贴标准研究提供启示。

Climate change presents a global threat, prompting nations to adopt low-carbon development pathways to mitigate its potential impacts. However, current research lacks a comprehensive framework capable of integrating multiple variables and providing dynamic optimization capabilities. This article focuses on designing pathways for developing a low-carbon economy to tackle climate challenges. Specifically, we construct a low-carbon economy model that incorporates economic, environmental, social, energy, and policy factors to analyze the drivers of economic growth and carbon emissions. We utilize economic model predictive control and tracking model predictive control to optimize development pathways aligned with various low-carbon targets, creating and validating a comprehensive framework for low-carbon policy design using historical data from China. This study highlights significant advantages in analyzing low-carbon pathways through advanced techniques like hierarchical regression and model predictive control, providing a robust framework that enhances our understanding of causal relationships within the LCE system, captures system feedback, dynamically optimizes pathways, and accommodates diverse policies within a comprehensive low-carbon economy system.

This paper investigates the gambling preference of Chinese investors in the convertible bond (CB) market through a natural experiment—the 2018 amendment of Article 142 of the Company Law. Utilizing CB issuance data from 2016 to 2023, we employ a cohort difference-in-difference approach and find a 4% to 7% increase in IPO premiums for high-repurchase-expectation CBs across various measures. This significant increase indicates that the legal revision reshapes investors’ expectation and adjusts their valuation of CBs. Furthermore, the event-study analysis reveals the escalating impact of legal revision, driven by the herding behavior of gambling investors.

We revisit cross-asset time-series momentum (XTSM) and single-asset time-series momentum (TSM) in China's stock and bond markets. With a fixed-effects model, we find a positive momentum from bonds to stocks and a negative momentum from stocks to bonds, with both momentum persisting for no more than six months. By employing a cross-grouping method, we find that the choice of lookback periods and asset signals impacts the performance of XTSM and TSM. A comparison between XTSM, TSM, and time-series historical (TSH) portfolios reveals that XTSM outperforms in small/midcap stocks and government bonds, while its performance is weak in large-cap stocks and corporate bonds. A spanning test confirms that XTSM generates excess returns that other pricing factors can not explain. XTSM is more prone to momentum crashes. Increased market stress has similarly adverse effects on XTSM and TSM. Furthermore, Market illiquidity, IPO counts, new investor accounts, and consumer confidence index positively correlate with the returns of XTSM and TSM portfolios, while IPO first-day return and turnover rate correlate negatively. The effects of these sentiment indicators exhibit heterogeneity.