本文以2000-2006年的面板数据为基础，对333 家制造业上市公司的负债期限结构影响投资的行为进行了实证检验。结果表明：就全样本而言，长短期负债均与企业投资规模显著负相关，按企业投资增长机会和内部现金流进一步分组后发现一方面长短期负债均加剧了高投资增长机会低内部现金流企业的投资不足行为，另一方面短期负债并不能抑制低投资增长机会高内部现金流企业的过度投资行为。

As first noted by Borch (1960), it seems natural to consider allocations of premium among reciprocal reinsurers as a problem in cooperative game theory. In the present paper, we address this problem by defining and studying the characteristic function associated with the reinsurers’ payoffs from concluding a reciprocal treaty. First, we use the characteristic function to describe the core and bargaining set previously identified by Baton and Lemaire (1981a, 1981b). Given that the core and bargaining set may consist of more than one point, it is necessary to develop a framework for selecting a unique premium allocation. However, this effort is greatly complicated by the large number of potentially desirable mathematical properties associated with various premium-allocation methods. To address this difficulty, we consider two specific contexts for reciprocal reinsurance – within-corporate-group and between-corporate-group transactions – and provide a detailed analysis of the mathematical properties most desirable for each context. Using these properties, we are able to compare competing allocation methods to determine which is the most suitable. Our analysis shows that the Shapley value provides the most attractive allocation method for the within-group problems, whereas the nucleolus provides the most compelling outcome for the between-group case.

We study the problem of structuring excess-of-loss catastrophe-reinsurance contracts to minimize the total reinsurance premium paid by primary insurers. Specifically, for a fixed retention level and upper coverage limit, we seek the optimal layering of coverage, both in terms of the number of layers and their respective widths.

本文以社会福利为衡量保险市场效率的标准，分析实施强制保险是否有助于保险市场效率的提高。作者首先证明了在信息不对称的保险市场中存在着市场失灵现象；然后通过比较实施强制保险前后社会福利的差异，得出结论：实施强制保险有助于社会福利的改善，从而可以提高保险市场效率。

本文利用经济内生增长模型，从理论上分析了保险业发展与促进经济增长之间的关系，得出了保险业在促进储蓄转化为投资方面具有更高效率的结论；并利用我国的实际数据对保险业发展和经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明：保险业的发展对我国经济增长起到了推动作用，尽管从目前来看，作用还比较有限。

金融资源的配置效率会直接影响经济发展的质量。山东省经济发展水平居全国前列，但金融资源配置效率总体不高，这会对今后经济发展造成不利影响。本文从金融资金、融资结构和金融市场三个方面对山东省金融资源现状加以描述，并对其金融资源配置效率进行了简单的实证分析。在此基础上，提出了优化山东省金融资源配置的建议，包括发展金融市场，拓宽直接融资渠道；健全现代金融体系；推进金融生态环境建设。

One argument for floating the Chinese renminbi (RMB) is to insulate China's monetary policy from the US effect. However, we note that both theoretical considerations and empirical results do not offer a definite answer on the link between exchange rate arrangement and policy dependence. We examine the empirical relevance of the argument by analyzing the interactions between the Chinese and US interest rates. Our empirical results, which appear robust to various assumptions of data persistence, suggest that the US effect on the Chinese interest rate is quite weak. Apparently, even with its de facto peg to the US dollar, China has alternative measures to retain its policy independence and de-link its interest rates from the US rate. In other words, the argument for a flexible RMB to insulate China's monetary policy from the US effect is not substantiated by the observed interest rate interactions.

This paper examines the currency exposure and exchange rate risk management at Chinese textile and apparel exporters. Chinese exporting firms have large net exposure to the US dollar. On average a 10 percent increase in the value of the renminbi against the dollar would reduce net revenues by 5.4 percent if the firms left prices unchanged. This large exposure is driven heavily by the choice of export pricing currency by the firms. The regional distribution of sales is more balanced across the major export markets of the US, EU, and Japan. However many firms are unaware of their indirect currency risk to currencies other than the dollar and most firms undertake little or no activities to hedge their foreign currency exposure, direct or indirect. The large dollar exposure of Chinese exporters may help explain the reluctance of the People's Bank of China to allow the RMB to undergo a rapid appreciation against the dollar.

The US dollar has been volatile and falling again and again in recent decades as well as recent years, and for many observers, it is going to be broken sooner or later. The central importance of the dollar is due to the fact that it is not just a currency for the US. Over half of all dollar bills in circulation are held outside of the US borders, and almost half of the US Treasury bonds are held as reserves by foreign central banks. The US dollar is supposed to be the anchor that stabilizes the global currency market. Instead, today it is a major source of instability. In the back ground, the US fiscal deficits have been running high again under Bush administration, once up to almost 3% of US GDP. And current account deficit is set to about 7% in 2005 and more volatility is widely expected. The situation is very challenging for the central banks of Japan, China, Korea, Taiwan and Singapore which collectively hold about US$2.8 trillion worth of US Treasury bonds as part of their reserves. The moment that they reduce their purchases, the value of the dollar slips. Yet, the more they buy, the more they are exposed to a potential free fall of the US dollar. China has been blamed, not only by US congressmen who are understandably not very familiar with either the complicated currency issues or the domestic politics in any other country, but also many economists or business strategists. It was said that it was all because RMB did not reevaluate, as the source of this "global imbalance" and currency instability. How much revaluation of RMB would remove the US deficits of $700 billions, or at least the US-China trade deficits $200 billions (including Hong Kong)? 500% or 1000%? Of cause no body asked for that kind of magnitude now. Normally smart people say 30-50%, with the unsaid intention to blame-then-suggest again another 30-50% after some initial moves, then the third, the fourth. This seems not really new phenomena at all. It has been all so familiar before and since the Nixon shock in early 70s', and in 80s' when there was the Plaza Accord. The convenient targets to blame were the gold standard, the Dutch Mark, the Japanese Yen. Now it is turn for Chinese reminbi. So the question is what are the real causes of the global imbalance and currency instability? In this short paper, we first take a look at what is really going on with the Chinese economy and trade balance, and then try to identify sources of the current imbalance , and then, as a concluding remark, think again the possibilities to reform the global currency system.

This paper proposes a path-dependent approach for estimating maximum appreciations of the renminbi expected by the market based on first-passage-time distributions. Using market data of the renminbi spot exchange rates, non-deliverable forward rates and currency option prices from 21 July 2005 (the reform of the exchange rate regime) to 28 February 2008 for model parameters, the maximum appreciations of the renminbi estimated under the proposed approach show that the market expected another large movement of the exchange rate during the 14 months after the reform. Subsequently, the few occasions of appreciations beyond the expected maximums coincided with the trade-related issues and speculations of greater momentum of appreciation allowed by the authorities. The PBoC's measures were however largely incorporated into the derivatives' prices. The proposed approach can be used to gauge the range of appreciations of the renminbi anticipated in the market and to identify any exchange rate movements beyond market expectations.