• 详情 Security Transaction Volume/Price Probability Wave Equation (证券成交量价的几率波方程)
    In this paper, the author observes a stationary transaction volume distribution over a trading price range in intraday transactions on individual stocks by studying relationship between the volume and price of transaction through amount of transaction in stock market. The transaction or accumulated trading volume gradually emerges kurtosis near the price mean value over a price range when it takes a longer trading time, regardless of actual price fluctuation path, time series, or total transaction volume in the time interval. The volume/price behaves a probability wave toward an equilibrium price, driven by a restoring force that can be represented by a linear potential. In terms of physics, the author derives a time-independent transaction volume/price probability wave equation and gets two sets of analytical transaction volume distribution eigenfunctions over a price range when supply or demand quantity varies. By fitting and testing the functions with intraday real transaction volume distribution over a price range on a considerable number of individual stocks in Shanghai 180 Index, the author shows the existence of relative equilibrium in stock market and demonstrates the model validation at this early stage. It concludes that either General Equilibrium Theory or Price Random Walk Hypothesis is an extreme conditional case in the probability wave model. Thus, the author attempts to offer a unified micro and dynamic probability wave theory on transaction volume/price in financial market. 本文作者通过成交金额研究股票市场中的成交量与价格之间关系时,观察到每只股票全天的成交量(即累计交易量)在交易价格区间有一种平稳的分布关系。随着交易时间的延长,累计交易量在交易价格区间逐渐显现出在成交价格均值附近峰化的分布特征。这一特征与体系在此间交易价格涨落的路径、时间序列或总成交量的大小无关。成交量价的运动表现为能够用线性势表示的中心力的作用下,围绕体系某一均衡价格运动的几率波。由此,作者用物理的方法推导出不显含时间变量的证券成交量价的波动方程并且得到当供求关系变化时,两组解析的成交量随价格变化的分布函数。用该函数与上证180指数中一些股票在全天真实的成交量随价格的分布进行拟合和检验,作者初步证明了在股票市场中存在相对均衡并且验证了该模型的有效性。其结论是:无论一般均衡理论还是价格波动的随机游走假说都是几率波模型在极端条件下的一个特例。这样,作者试图提出一个适用于描述金融市场中统一、微观和动态的成交量价几率波理论。
  • 详情 人民币升值的利弊分析
    人民币升值问题近来成为一个令人关注的话题。中国的贸易伙伴也纷纷要求重新评估人民币汇率。人民币对我国的贸易,经济发展,就业关系重大。人民币升值的影响是多方面多层次的。不仅关系到进出口贸易,还关系到宏观经济运行,并影响社会的发展。而且在国际社会影响巨大,会影响世界经济发展。人民币升值问题是一个多个利益方的博弈,不同的利益方对其利弊也是不同的,本文主要从中国国家利益方进行论证阐述。
  • 详情 IC卡、电子货币及发行人责任
    就什么是电子货币及电子货币发行人的基本法律义务作了探讨。认为电子货币实为货币的电子版,构成对货币替代;但由于目前对电子货币尚未纳入监管,所以,其流通规则宜按债的规则处理,并以此规范发行人的责任。
  • 详情 构建中国金融监管新模式
    [论文摘要] 随着金融体制改革的不断深入,尤其是在加入世贸组织后,国内金融业日益融入国际金融业的发展潮流,金融经济瞬息万变,给处于探索起步阶段的中国金融监管带来了严峻挑战,本文通过比较几种不同的金融监管模式,分析它们的优势和劣势,并结合了国际金融监管体制现状,试图探索出更适合我国经济发展的金融监管模式。
  • 详情 房地产市场、银行信贷与经济增长――基于面板数据的经验研究
    内容提要: 本文针对近年来我国房地产市场价格持续攀升但市场需求不降反升、银行信贷资金迅速向房地产业集中以及房地产市场发展与经济增长的作用等问题,以全国和各省、市、自治区的面板数据,进行了实证分析。分析结果显示,我国房地产市场供给约束问题非常严重,尤其是考虑到居民收入增长因素后,房地产市场的供求矛盾十分突出;银行房地产开发贷款和个人住房贷款强有力地支撑了房地产市场的供求;房地产市场的发展也拉动了经济的增长,但这一作用没有我们想象的大。因此,目前我国针对房地产市场的宏观调控和各项监管措施,都应该从供求两方面出发,在金融等政策上要保持连续性,并加强制度建设,更好地发挥市场机制的作用。 Abstract: Recent years, with the rising price, the housing demands also rise quickly, which is strange to the common sense of economics. In addition, the relationship between banking sector and housing industry has become more and close, and the growth of housing industry pull the economic growth dramatically. Based on the panel data of the nation and provinces, we try an empirical study on the topics above. The empirical results show that at least in the nowadays China’s market, one of the most sever problem in the real estate market is the constraints of the housing supply compared to the demand if we consider the effects of the resid ents’income growth. Bank loans are maybe the most effective factor pulling the housing industry growth, both on the supply side and the demand. To our surprise, the effect of housing consumption on the economic growth is less than we have assumed, considering the cyclical changes of the economy. . So we draw the followed policy implications in the further macroeconomic managements: we must take the measures directly to both the supply and the demand sides, keep the policies’ continuity, strengthen the institutional progress and make the market mechanism more effective.
  • 详情 R/S 系列分析的非线性估计及应用
    针对 R/S 系列分析方法在估计 H 参数时存在一定偏差,从而导致分析结论产生分歧的问题,提出用非线性估计方法提高 R/S 系列分析估计 H 参数的精确度,同时结合 ARFIMA 模型对估计精度进行了验证.最后应用非线性 R/S 方法揭示中国股市主要指数和个股收益序列中的长期记忆效应.
  • 详情 我国金融监管运行机制的博弈分析
    本文结合我国金融监管运行机制的现状,建立了金融监管的分析模型,依据模型对金融监管运行机制进行了博弈分析。在此基础上,提出了完善我国金融监管制度的三点政策建议。
  • 详情 Designing on the Credit Rating System for College Students in Government-aided Loan
    College Students’ credit in loan has become the focus of the authority of universities and commercial banks. It is therefore very imperative to establish the appraisal system on the credit of college students and it is pretty important and urgent for the business growth, decrease of risks. In the light of experience of developed countries in college students’ loan and personal consumption loan, the paper aims to design an appraisal system that fits China’s situation well
  • 详情 商业银行垫付诉讼费的现状及管理对策
    垫付诉讼费是商业银行为了实现自身的债权,维护自身合法权益而向人民法院提起诉讼,依照有关规定向法院预交的案件受理费、公告费、诉讼保全费、鉴定费、执行申请费、评估费及其他诉讼费用。商业银行作为提起诉讼的当事人,近年来垫付诉讼费逐年呈增长态势,且居高不下,因此,随着对非生息资产清理的深入,垫付诉讼费问题以成为商业银行一个值得关注的焦点。为了降低垫付诉讼费的损失,加强垫付诉讼费的管理,本文结合实际情况,对垫付诉讼管理的现状和存在的问题进行分析,并就如何加强垫付诉讼费的管理提出对策。
  • 详情 金融风险原理
    本文在提出正率风险和负率风险概念的基础上,建立了金融风险的结构模型[资本资产定价模型的对偶理论]和正率风险原理,证明了分散投资可以消除负率风险,收益率等于市场收益率,确立市场可划分为良性、泡沫、恶性三种状态,并得到各种状态下收益率形成的原因是,投资者资金比例的变化,三种状态的组合为一个波动,从而建立起艾略特波动理论的金融学基础,为正确应用提供方向。用泡沫市场的性质,对“股票市场溢价”之谜做出解释为,国民经济增长率与投资的资金比例之乘积。