• 详情 美国高盛公司股票价值分析
    Abstract: This paper is mainly to achieve two aims: 1. present industry analysis on investment banking business; 2. value Goldman Sachs stock through different methods. The paper is consisted of eight parts. Part one is introduction. In part two we make a general review on I-banking industry. In part three we present the profile of Goldman Sachs Group. Then in part four we will analyse GS financial data, based on its latest annual reports. In part five, we will briefly list business risks for GS. In part six we compare fundamental valuation ratios of three biggest investment banks. In part seven we present relevant valuation theory and then value Goldman Sachs stock through three methods: Dividend Discount Model, Price multiples and a simple Residual Income Model. As a final step, in the eighth part we draw a general conclusion of the paper.
  • 详情 Dynamic Model for Price Manipulation in Emerging Stock Market
    Many articles agreed that it is possible for speculators to manipulate stock prices. In this article, we give a dynamic model to show in detail how one type of the trade-based manipulation is realized in stock markets, especially in emerging stock markets, where manipulators have dominative information and fund over the uninformed investors. In our model, we assume that uniformed investors predict future price movement with their forecasting model, the number of uniformed investors who decide to buy stocks increases with fitting degree of the forecasting model for past price data and the model parameters. With these assumptions, manipulators take two-step strategy (pumping the price and selling stocks at higher prices), the pumping step aims to absorb uninformed investors' following by buying the stock by use of the forecasting model, and the selling step is to sell all the stock in higher prices by trying their best to control the supplies and continually attracting the uniformed investors’ following. We show that manipulators can realize their strategies and maximize their final wealth by controlling the strength of pumping and deciding the time length to sell out the stocks. Two numerical examples are also given.
  • 详情 我国寿险业的进入规制与市场结构
    目前我国对寿险业实行比较严格的进入规制,进入规制会影响到不同类型市场结构的形成。由于寿险业经营的特殊性,入世后在进一步开放市场的前提下,我国应采取必要的政府规制措施,保持适度垄断,形成寡头垄断的理想市场结构模式。
  • 详情 银行并购与中国银行业的发展
    银行并购是银行业变革在组织机构上的体现,这种变革的发生会对并购银行本身、相关国家及国际银行业产生深远影响。中国经过20多年的改革,银行业发生了巨变。随着经济增长回升和经济效益改善,银行业的竞争力明显提高,已初步具备了现代商业银行特征。然而,一些诸如竞争性不强、规模不经济;稳健性不够、盈利能力不强等深层次问题依然突出。通过分析,银行并购可以提升中国银行业的竞争力,解决规模不经济问题,培育大型企业集团等,是一种较为理想的改革中国银行业的途径。 It is bank’s M&A that embodies the change of banking on the organization.While inevitably exert a far-reaching effect on the banks themselves in the M&A, it will influence the relevant country and international banking. In China, the banking structure has been improved since 1978. But from the data in the paper, we can conclude that Chinese banking market structure is oligopoly and Chinese banking is inefficient. It is just the Bank’s M&A that can promote the competitive power of Chinese banking, improve the reasonable allocation of financial resources, and ensure the stability of financial system. Bank’s M&A is a comparatively ideal way to reform Chinese banking.
  • 详情 Default Risk in Equity Returns
    This is the first study that uses Merton’s (1974) option pricing model to compute default measures for individual firms and assess the effect of default risk on equity returns. The size effect is a default effect, and this is also largely true for the book-to-market (BM) effect. Both exist only in segments of the market with high default risk. Default risk is systematic risk. The Fama-French (FF) factors SMB and HML contain some default-related information, but this is not the main reason that the FF model can explain the cross-section of equity returns.
  • 详情 我国各省区人身保险业务差异的因素分析
    受人均GDP、居民收入水平、人口年龄结构等因素影响,我国各省区人身保险业务有较大差异。本文通过建立回归模型对造成这种差异的原因进行了分析,并提出了几点建议。
  • 详情 浅析信托在我国资产证券化中的运用
    本文简要介绍了国外设立SPV的三种模式,以及三种模式在我国运用的前景,并对我国运用信托方式设立SPV来操作资产证券化的优势进行深入的分析,指出目前运用信托方式设立SPV可能存在的法律问题,并提出相应的建议。
  • 详情 隐含期权引起的商业银行利率风险管理变革
    本文首先将隐含期权的概念引入到现代商业银行利率风险管理之中,明确指出若商业银行的资产负债项目包含有隐含期权,则传统的基于持续期的利率免疫技术将不再适用;并在此基础上,介绍了一种期权基础的定价模型――OAS,在现代商业银行利率风险管理中的应用。
  • 详情 2004--2005年中国货币政策评析和展望
    2004年,稳健的货币政策在宏观调控中发挥了重要的作用,主要表现在货币政策措施突出了科学性、前瞻性和有效性,货币政策操作注重观念创新、制度创新和手段创新,货币政策调控充分运用市场化手段适时适度调控信贷总量和结构,货币政策执行坚持区别对待、有保有压,货币政策效果既防范了物价高企又保持了国民经济持续稳定增长。2005年将继续实行稳健的货币政策,保持货币信贷的平稳合理增长,防止经济出现大的波动和物价过快上涨,注重以改革的办法解决阻碍我国经济金融发展的体制和机制问题。
  • 详情 中外资银行的客户争夺中的博奕分析
    随着中国加入世贸组织和金融自由化进程的不断深入,中国对外资银行的种种限制正逐步取消,对本国银行机构的保护也日渐放开,中外资银行很快就将同台竞技,在中国金融舞台上大展拳脚。因此本文针对这个问题展开讨论,指出中外资银行之间竞争中的博奕的过程分析。