• 详情 Registration-based reform and stock liquidity: Evidence from China’s ChiNext market
    How do market-design reforms affect secondary-market liquidity in an emerging equity market? We examine China’s ChiNext reform, which combined registration-based IPO issuance with changes in secondary-market trading rules. Using firm-month observations and high-frequency order-book data, we compare incumbent ChiNext firms with Main Board firms in a difference-in-differences framework. The results show that the reform significantly improves secondary-market liquidity, with consistent evidence across alternative DID estimators and liquidity measures. Dynamic estimates show comparable pre-reform movements and increasingly favorable liquidity outcomes after implementation. Cross-sectional analysis indicates stronger liquidity improvements among larger and more profitable firms. Microstructure results show narrower quoted spreads, broadly stable displayed depth, and a shift in order flow toward buyer-initiated trading. Overall, the findings demonstrate that the integrated ChiNext reform package improved secondary-market liquidity and reshaped the cross-sectional distribution of liquidity gains, highlighting the market-quality consequences of institutional reform in emerging equity markets.
  • 详情 Family Long Cycle Hypothesis:Intergenerational Liquidity Lock-in,Uncertainty Multiplier,and China’s Fertility Dilemma
    Why do fertility subsidies consistently fail in China? Why do consumptionand fertility collapse globally despite intact household book wealth? This paper proposes the Family Long Cycle Hypothesis (FLCH), extending thedecision-making unit of the life cycle hypothesis from an individual to an intergenerational family network, and expanding the budget constraint from a singlelifetime resource constraint to a dual constraint of “total resources + liquiditystructure”. The core mechanism is: intergenerational “blood-transfusion” homepurchase locks in network liquidity without changing household net assets, completing a balance sheet morph of “book wealth unharmed, decision-making paralyzed” at the moment of purchase. This liquidity depletion spikes effective riskaversion, forming a multiplier effect with income uncertainty, causing fertility—the irreversible commitment with the longest duration—to enter the corner solution region first. Within this region, the elasticity of fertility decisions to costsubsidies is strictly zero, but they remain highly sensitive to liquidity repairand uncertainty reduction. Consequently, this paper proves the fundamentalmechanism difference between consumption subsidies (cash rewards, childcarefee waivers) and capital transfers (mortgage principal write-down, unconditionalcash transfers), and proposes three effective policy directions: reducing incomeuncertainty, repairing family liquidity, and raising the reference income of thebottom 90% of the population. The model nests the standard life cycle hypothesis as a special case and is distinguishable from the competitive saving hypothesis on six pairs of opposing predictions. The theory also explains theasymmetric “fast-falling, slow-rising” adjustment of housing prices: the drop isdriven by defensive behavior (business cycle scale), while the recovery is constrained by intergenerational liquidity reconstruction (intergenerational scale of10–20 years).
  • 详情 短期创造、中期搬运:影子银行货币效应的”分母刚性遮蔽”与跨期识别
    企业支付影子债务利息与到期本金时,资金从借款企业活期存款账户划出,进入金融机构负债端的定期存款、理财产品及同业资产账户,继续以准货币形态沉淀于M2内部。银行业理财登记托管中心数据显示,理财产品投资资产中非标债权占比仅5.4%,超过80%的资金配置于债券、现金及银行存款、同业存单等标准化资产,短期内不会回流实体交易账户。付息期内M2总量保持刚性,M1/M2比值对影子银行滞后效应的识别灵敏度被系统性压缩,这一结构性测量偏误被界定为分母刚性遮蔽效应。围绕该发现,区分当期信用创造与滞后存量付息摩擦两类时序效应,嵌入土地财政与城投预算软约束的制度逻辑,提出影子银行货币搬运假说。
  • 详情 What Do Leveraged Traders Seek and Gain from Social Media Tone?
    We find that firm-specific social media tone influences leveraged trading. A more positive tone predicts greater next-day net margin purchasing, driven predominantly by sentiment. High margin purchasing following positive social media tone consistently yields inferior performance over both short and long horizons. Short sellers are collectively more sophisticated. They capitalize on fluctuations in social media tone, both positive and negative, through strategies that adjust to different tone windows and holding periods. While experienced, rational short sellers can swiftly profit from temporary negative sentiment, high short selling following persistently high social media tone is highly profitable over longer horizons.
  • 详情 经济周期与资产配置:从货币演变到周期投资的完整框架
    本系列文章旨在构建一个从货币本质到投资实践的完整认知框架。我们将从货币诞生讲起,穿越金银铜铁的时代,进入现代信用货币体系,理解央行调控的逻辑,掌握经济周期的运行规律,最终学会用真实数据指标定位周期,并据此进行资产配置。
  • 详情 Beyond Technological Determinism: Institutional Capacity and Faculty Empowerment Driving Digitalizing in Higher Education-Evidence from Northwest China
    Digitalization is widely promoted as a means to enhance faculty development, yet in resource-constrained regions like Northwest China, structural inequalities persist. This qualitative case study examines how national policy, institutional capacity, and faculty agency interact to shape digital support in higher education. Drawing on institutional records and interviews with faculty from two universities, the study reveals stark disparities in funding, infrastructure, and training strategies. Research-intensive institutions benefit from policy-backed resources and expert-led programs, while regional universities rely on low-cost lectures and collaborations. Faculty report limited autonomy, disciplinary biases, and insufficient support for emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence. In this regional context, these findings challenge assumptions of resource neutrality and technological determinism in digital education policy. The study proposes a governance-oriented framework that emphasizes institutional responsibility, faculty empowerment, and context-sensitive digital strategies. It offers insights for policymakers and institutions seeking to advance equitable and sustainable faculty development in digitally transforming higher education systems.
  • 详情 Multitracking within a Multitasking Tournament: Evidence and Theory from China
    This paper studies how dividing candidates in a tournament into separate tracks with differentiated performance criteria affects incentives and aggregate outcomes. We exploit China’s Major Function Oriented Zoning plan, which assigns counties to devel-opment or conservation tracks, with the latter de-emphasizing growth indicators. Using a staggered Difference-in-Differences design, we find that prefectures introducing a con-servation track achieved higher aggregate economic performance despite relaxing growth-based evaluation for part of their subordinate counties. To explain this counterintuitive ef-fect, we develop a stylized Tullock contest model that highlights two institutional features: promotion opportunities remain open to officials in both tracks, and counties within the same prefecture continue to interact across tracks. The model further predicts an inverted U-shaped relationship between the size of the conservation track and overall performance, which is supported by empirical evidence.
  • 详情 Small-Scale Mining and the Law: Addressing the "Galamsey" Challenge
    Small scale mining has always been part of life in Ghana, but its illegal form known as galamsey has grown into one of the country’s biggest problems. Galamsey gives work to many people, yet still it destroys rivers, forests and farms, leaving communities struggling to survive. This paper looks at the laws that guide small scale mining in Ghana, from the days of traditional mining, through the colonial period, the Small Scale Gold Mining Law of 1989, and the Minerals and Mining Act, 2006 (Act 703) as amended by Act 995. It explains how weak enforcement, corruption, political interference and the role of foreigners, especially some Chinese nationals, have made the laws less effective. The paper also shows, through recent court cases such as Republic v Fynn and Republic v Domotey and Others, that Ghana’s courts are ready to punish offenders when cases are well presented. The courts have given long prison terms and heavy fines, showing that they are not the weak link in the fight. The real problem is poor enforcement and selective justice, since many foreigners are deported instead of being put on trial. The paper argues that solving the galamsey problem needs strong enforcement, freedom from political interference, the setting up of special environmental courts, and better job opportunities for rural communities. With these steps, Ghana can protect the environment while also supporting its people to make a living in lawful ways.
  • 详情 When Workers Leave, Fires Rise: Migration-Induced Agricultural Burning and Institutional Solutions in China
    This paper quantifies the impact of rural–urban migration on agricultural fires, a major source of air pollution in China. Using satellite records and census data, we exploit an exogenous trade shock that raised manufacturing labor demand in destination prefec-tures, drawing workers from origin counties through established migration networks. A one-percentage-point increase in rural labor emigration in 2010 led to a 5% rise in agricultural fires from 2011 to 2017. The effect stems from reduced agricultural labor, which incentivizes fire use as a labor-saving clearing method. Consistent with this mech-anism, we find no effect from non-agricultural emigration or from migration to nearby areas where return farming remains feasible, with the strongest impact during harvest seasons. Institutional reforms, particularly land titling programs, significantly mitigate the problem by enhancing tenure security, enabling farmland reallocation, and reducing reliance on fire—proving more effective than nationwide administrative bans.
  • 详情 How Trust Shapes the Fate of Natural Resources Co-Management? Applying Trust Theory To Two Communities in the S Protected Area in China
    Community-based natural resource governance is often promoted in the name of sustainability, yet long-term outcomes remain elusive. This study examines the impact of various types of trust as the underpinning factor for the long-term resilience of collaborative resource governance. Using a four-type trust framework, dispositional, affinitive, rational, and procedural, the study compares trust trajectories across the prior to-, during-, and post-project phases of matsutake mushroom management in two communities within the S National Protected Area, Yunnan Province, China. Drawing on qualitative interviews and comparative case analysis, the study finds that while neither community sustained co-management mechanisms in full, X Village retained partial continuity through embedded procedural and rational trust. In contrast, Y village experienced accelerated institutional decline after project withdrawal, as market changes and weak enforcement undermined collective norms and trust in formal structures. These findings underscore that institutional resilience is shaped not only by institutional design but also by the evolution and interaction of trust types over time. By tracing trust trajectories across project stages, this study contributes a micro-level explanation of how trust mediates post-project governance outcomes. It emphasizes the importance of layering trust and embedding it within local social and institutional practices. The findings highlight the need to consider how co-management strategies can support trust continuity after project withdrawal, particularly by acknowledging the underlying structural conditions that shape trust resilience.