作者从基层外汇管理的实际出发,对当前外汇进出口核销制度提出一些建设性意见,以期改进外汇核销方式,提高外汇核销效率,支持外向型经济发展。

中国上市公司存在着强烈的增长冲动。公司可以利用盈利水平来发送自身质量的信号，以获得更多的再融资支持未来的增长，但这要以牺牲现期增长水平为代价。当证监会决定未达到强制性业绩标准的公司不允许再融资时，一些低质量公司为获得再融资不得不牺牲现期的增长水平以追求达到再融资标准的盈利水平，这是“10％”、“6％”现象产生的原因。如果考虑到公司可能操纵业绩，公司将比较作假成本、牺牲增长水平的成本和获得再融资的收益以决定是否和怎样达到再融资标准，“10％”、“6％”现象依然存在；此时，一些质量很低和很高的公司将会达到再融资标准，而质量处于中间层的公司将不会达到再融资标准。

This paper reports the effort of using agent-based mix-game model to predict financial time series. It introduces simple generic algorithm into the prediction methodology, and gives an example of its application to forecasting Shanghai Index. The results show that this prediction methodology is effective and agent-based mix-game model is a potential good model to predict time series of financial markets.

“最高综合授信额度是指商业银行在对单一法人客户的风险和财务状况进行综合评估的基础上，确定的能够和愿意承担的风险总量。”目前，国内银行业在对客户进行最高综合授信额度核定时，是以客户的偿债能力为信用风险分析评估核心，再辅之其他分析评估技术。

This paper investigates a two-factor affine model for the credit spreads on corporate bonds. The Þrst factor can be interpreted as the level of the spread, and the second factor is the volatility of the spread. The riskless interest rate is modeled using a standard two-factor affine model, thus leading to a four-factor model for corporate yields. This approach allows us to model the volatility of corporate credit spreads as stochastic, and also allows us to capture higher moments of credit spreads. We use an extended Kalman Þlter approach to estimate our model on corporate bond prices for 108 Þrms. The model is found to be successful at Þtting actual corporate bond credit spreads, resulting in a signiÞcantly lower root mean square error (RMSE) than a standard alternative model in both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. In addition,key properties of actual credit spreads are better captured by the model.

2006年中国股市将处于熊市的最后挣扎阶段，下半年至年底是投资大机会来临的时候，由于市场利益各方无法达成共识，市场中也不可能出现一呼百应的投资理念，因此，市场信心的恢复和牛市的出现要到2007年初。

运用严格的比较制度分析方法，在非正式制度贡献份额较重的中国公共事务协调文化中，评价中国金融监管体制转换效率，我们发现，银监分立将带来巨大的制度转换成本和协调成本。在现行中国银监会监管格局下，提高中国金融监管效率的优选策略是，通过提高监管独立性和权威性，通过松弛外部约束条件，以及通过赋予央行“紧急磋商”权力等措施，实现制度运行成本最小化。

离岸银行业务或银行离岸业务（Offshore Banking），是商业银行业务中最具争议，同时对客户和银行也最具吸引力的一项特殊业务。本文拟就现代离岸银行业务和离岸金融中心的形成、发展、现状和趋势，监管环境变化，以及银行的运作和对策作一些分析。

This paper develops a reduced form model of interest rate swap spreads. The model accommodates both the default risk inherent in swap contracts and the liquidity difference between the swap and Treasury markets. We use an extended Kalman Þlter approach to estimate the model parameters. The model Þts the swap rates well. We then solve for the implied general collateral repo rates and use them to decompose the swap spreads into their default risk and liquidity components. This exercise shows that the default risk and liquidity components of swap spreads behave very differently: although default risk accounts for the largest share of the levels of swap spreads, the liquidity component is much more volatile. In addition, while the default risk component has been historically positive, the liquidity component was negative for much of the 1990s and has become positive since the Þnancial market turmoils in 1998.

我国银行业即将全面对外开放和走向世界，这给现代银行监管提出了许多新课题。适应新形势发展的需要，需要高度重视现代银行监管，努力改善现代银行监管的基础条件；要分析了解我国银行业开放及银行业竞争力现状，研究提高我国银行业的整体竞争力的途径；要善于“洋为中用”，努力增强银行业机构真正的竞争优势；要顺应国际银行监管潮流，加快与国际惯例接轨步伐；要评估我国银行监管的现状，努力增强监管有效性。