• 详情 用相对流通的思路解决全流通问题
    本文通过不流通和流通股的本质分析,提出了以建立相对流通市场来实现全流通的方案,所谓相对流通就是国有股、法人股交易以后,冻结一个时期然后流通。由于资金的时间价值和股票的流通性决定了非流通股在交易时,价格会低于流通时的价格,因此,非流通股东和流通股东可以共同分享全流通带来的溢价收益。这种方案可以最大限度地维持市场的稳定,平衡非流通股和流通股股东的利益,产生良好的社会效益。和现行的方案相比具有可操作性强的特点,而且在全流通过程中,让市场规律发挥最大的作用,减少了人为偏差因素造成的再次分配不均。
  • 详情 PRE-OPEN AND POST-CLOSE STOCK MARKET TRADING ROUTINES AND INTRA-DAY STOCK PRICE VOLATILITY
    In August 2000 the Singapore Stock Exchange introduced a pre-trading routine that allowed brokers to place orders into the Exchange’s computerized order matching system for a period of 30 minutes prior to market opening. A post-market trading routine was also introduced allowing for a final order matching and trade execution to occur five minutes after market close. This study investigates the impact of these changes on volatility and the price discovery process. The pre-trading session significantly reduced opening stock market volatility while the post-trading session increased volatility prior to close. A GARCH (1,1) model remains the most appropriate model for capturing the characteristics of the intra-day stock price movements in both before and after periods.
  • 详情 探析我国票据利率体系失衡的原因与有关设想
    对我国目前票据利率体系失衡的原因进行了分析,现行过低的承兑费率完全不能覆盖正常的风险损失,对快速增长中的银行承兑业务形成了巨大隐患;现行贴现利率必须在再贴现利率之上的利率管制与市场机制形成了悖论关系。对此提出,提高银行承兑费率,实行下限管理;对贴现利率实行市场化,以此逐步提高商业银行利率定价与利率风险管理的水平。
  • 详情 A Dynamic Model of the Growth Firm under Takeover Threats
    This paper examines the optimal path of dividend policy adjustments for a growth company facing the likely threat of takeover. Departing from the common framework of inefficient managers resisting takeover attempts, the formal analysis here focuses on defensive payout strategy of value-maximizing management under the circumstances of random stock market valuation errors, and the bidders’ perceived synergistic gains. A dynamic model, incorporating acquisition activity stochastically, is formulated for a growth firm drawing funds from both internal and external sources. An optimal “bang-bang” reinvestment strategy is derived with control theory, and it is found to be consistent with the firm’s objective of stock-value-maximization. It is also shown theoretically that an immediate threat of takeover shortens managerial planning horizon. The model provides an explanation of dividend adjustment behavior observed in growth firms, and offers an insight into the impact of anti-takeover costs on the firm’s value over time.
  • 详情 日本要求人民币升值的背后.
    日本要求人民币升值的原因主要是认为,中国实行的“盯住”美元的货币政策,美元的持续贬值,而人民币对美元汇率保持不变,使得出口量急剧膨胀。换句话说,中国正在不断的向其输出“通货紧缩”。 一,分析中国出口急剧增长原因为:外商对中国的投资增长是中国出口增长的直接原因。 二,日本通货紧缩由来已久:回顾日本“泡沫经济”的产生,引出通货紧缩由来。 三,分析日本通货紧缩成因: 1,日本金融体系的不健全性 2,日本政府对金融的渗透 3,日本经济政策过失 接着引出:日本为了刺激出口而开始贬低其币值,但经济未能复苏,但此时日元贬值的空间已经很小,所以只有通过提高他国币值达到日元的相对再贬值。 最后评价了日本的做法的不恰当性。
  • 详情 中国银行业公司业务产品组合深化路径
    客户、产品和地域,是银行业务发展中的3项关键要素。在客户和地域战略确定之后,银行实现自己战略目标之关键,在于提供满足客户需要的产品和服务组合,及对这一组合在深度、广度和内在一体化上的不断深化发展。本文拟根据中国银行业这个特殊群体所处的业务发展阶段和客户市场特征,分析中国的商业银行特别是其中提供全面金融服务的大型银行,在从事公司业务时,应当采取的产品组合深化路径。
  • 详情 股权结构、投资者保护与公司绩效
    本文将股权结构、投资者保护与公司绩效纳入一个统一的框架体系进行研究。与以往研究不同的是,本文建立了在投资者保护程度不同的条件下,股权结构分别对公司绩效和代理成本影响的模型,并以2000年深、沪642家上市公司为研究对象进行实证检验。研究结果表明,股权结构对公司绩效作用的强弱受到投资者保护程度的影响。当投资者保护增强时,大股东对管理者的监督力度降低;当投资者保护减弱时,情况则相反。这表明大股东的存在可以作为投资者保护的一种替代机制。鉴于此,国有股减持的改革不能盲目进行,而应以良好的投资者法律保护为前提,同时应积极培育具有监督作用的大股东。
  • 详情 Options valuation.
    This paper deals with the option-pricing problem. In the first part of the paper we study in more details the discrete setting of the option-pricing problem usually referred to as the binomial scheme. We highlight basic differences between the old and the new approaches. The main qualitative distinction of the new pricing approach from either binomial or Black Scholes’s is that it represents the option price as a stochastic process. This stochastic interpretation can not give straightforward advantage for an investor due to stochastic setting of the pricing problem. The new approach explicitly states that the options price is more risky than represented by binomial scheme or Black Scholes theory. Continuous setting will be considered in the second part of the paper following [1]. One significant conclusion follows from the new model. It states that there is no sense in using either neutral probabilities or ‘neutral world’ applications for options valuation either theoretically or numerically. Recall that after the Black Scholes’ publication [2] the ‘simplified’ approach named later binomial scheme was introduced in [3]. In this paper referring to the historical tradition we first represent discrete scheme. In several examples we discuss two-period plain vanilla option valuation. Then we extend the discrete scheme applications to an exotic option-pricing referred to as a compound option. The compound option in Black Scholes setting was first studied in [4] and then in [5,6]. To highlight the difference between stochastic and deterministic option price definitions note that if a deterministic value is interpreted as a perfect or fair price we can comment that the stochastic interpretation provides this number or any other with the probability that real world option value at maturity will be bellow chosen number. This probability is a pricing risk of the option. Thus with an investor’s motivation of the option pricing the stochastic approach gives information about the risk taking. The investor analyzing option price and corresponding risk makes a decision to purchase the option or not. As far as this paper presents alternative point on option pricing it might be useful to present a short history of this development. Recall that according the US law institutions must provide clients by the risk information regarding client’s prospective on their investments. This circumstance implies importance new approach measuring risk of investments. Different parts of this paper were submitted and sent to journals, conferences, and prominent professors. The third part of the paper was sent to Federal Reserve from the Congressman office and simple examples showing drawbacks of the benchmark option valuation method were submitted to SEC in August 2002.
  • 详情 实施QFII后发展中国股指期货的对策建议
    股指期货是20世纪80年代发展起来的新型投资工具,具有价格发现、规避风险、投机、套利等功能,能够有效完善证券市场的功能与机制。尽管受到1987年美国股市崩溃的影响而陷于为期近两年的停滞阶段,但90年代以来,随着网络革命的兴起和全球资本市场一体化以及机构投资者的崛起,股指期货已经成为全球金融衍生品市场中最具活力的组成部分,在国际金融市场中的地位与作用越来越重要。随着中国证券市场规模的不断扩大和机构投资者的成长以及实施QFII之后,对通过股指期货等金融创新工具来推动市场深化的要求日益迫切。本文考察了推出中国股指期货的现实需求、分析了股指期货对现货市场的影响及其与国际股灾的关系,最后提出了目前发展中国股指期货的对策建议。
  • 详情 银行全球业务发展的新型组织结构-三维战略业务单位(SBU)模式初探
    主要全球化大银行已经开始了按照客户群重组银行业务的历程。客户型组织结构的最大挑战在于如何在客户与产品线及地域之间取得协调。银行在解决这一矛盾的实践中,已经形成了几种管理模式比较具有代表性的,采用得较为广泛的则是以花旗集团为代表的矩阵(Matrix)模式。而荷兰银行(ABN AMRO Bank)在3年前又推出了创新模式:战略业务单位(Strategic Business Nuit,以下简称SBU)组织管理结构。本文旨在对荷兰银行首创的这一全新组织结构和内部管理 的新模式作初步分析评估。