• 详情 有效市场,金融理论与中国股市
    有效市场假说(EMH)一直是标准金融学理论的核心概念,行为金融学(Behavioral Finance)质疑这一假说。本文首先回顾了“异象”的提出和行为金融学的解释,分析了行为金融学的理论建构模式,然后检查了标准金融学对“异象”的实证研究和解释。本文认为,使有效市场不能得到实现的套利限制更多的是来源于信息,制度等外部约束,实证研究很难说明投资者的特殊心理因素是有效市场的障碍,行为金融学的理论还未形成关于投资者行为的清晰理论体系。但是,在行为金融学与标准金融学间不断的斗争过程,金融理论将得到不断的发展,行为金融学将成为分析市场短期表现和投资者个人行为的有用工具。文章最后对中国股市的市场效率进行了评述,分析了妨碍中国市场效率的政策因素和值得研究中国的证券市场效率的学者注意的一些研究方向。
  • 详情 基金业绩评价的OMD方法及对我国基金业绩的实证分析
    本文利用等价保证金理论和OMD方法建立一种新的基金业绩评价体系,经过对我国基金市场的实证分析表明,它比传统的基金业绩评价方法更客观更科学
  • 详情 红与黑 中国金融业海外之旅
    中国加入WTO,外资银行纷纷进入中国大陆的同时,中共十六大报告也鼓励中国金融业走向海外。海外上市固然可以扩大中国金融业的影响,增强中国金融机构竞争力,但是也必须保持清醒,目前我国金融业要真正走出去还面临着巨大的挑战。
  • 详情 Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles
    Motivated by the behavior of internet stock prices in 1998-2000, we present a continuous time equilibrium model of bubbles where overconfidence generates disagreements among agents regarding asset fundamentals. With shortsale constraints, an asset owner has an option to sell the asset to other agents who have more optimistic beliefs. This re-sale option has a recursive structure, that is, a buyer of the asset gets the option to resell it. This causes a significant bubble component in asset prices even when small di erences of beliefs are sucient to generate a trade. The model generates prices that are above fundamentals, excessive trading, excess volatility, and predictable returns. However, our analysis shows that while Tobin’s tax can substantially reduce speculative trading when transaction costs are small, it has only a limited impact on the size of the bubble or on price volatility. We give an example where the price of a subsidiary is larger than its parent firm. Finally, we show how overconfidence can justify the use of corporate strategies that would not be rewarding in a “rational” environment.
  • 详情 资本结构和产品市场竞争
    内容提要:本文运用产业经济理论和财务理论,检验了企业的资本结构决策和其在产品市场上的竞争战略之间的关系。理论和实证分析发现,企业的资本结构与其所在的产品市场上的竞争强度之间,具有显著的正相关关系。我们以深、沪两地的上市公司为例进行的实证研究有效地支持了我们上述的假设。
  • 详情 Discounts on Illiquid Stocks: Evidence from China
    This paper provides evidence on the significant impact of illiquidity or non-marketability on security valuation. A typical listed company in China has several types of share outstanding: (i) common shares that are only tradable on stock exchanges, (ii) restricted institutional shares (RIS) that are not tradable and can only be transferred privately or through irregularly scheduled auctions, and (iii) state shares that are only transferable privately. These types of share are identical in every aspect, except that market regulations make state and RIS shares almost totally illiquid. Our analysis focuses on the price differences between RIS and common shares of the same company, using both auction and private-transfer transactions for RIS shares. Among our findings, the average discount for RIS shares relative to their floating counterpart is 77.93% and 85.59%, respectively based on auction and private transfers. The price for illiquidity is thus high, significantly raising the cost of equity capital. This illiquidity discount increases with both the floating shares’ volatility and the firm’s debt/equity ratio, but decreases with firm size, return on equity, and book/price and earnings/price ratios (based on the floating share price). However, RIS share price can either increase or decrease with the quantity being transacted, depending on whether it is through a private placement or an auction.
  • 详情 “江淮一安凯模式”一一展示文化在企业整合中的价值?
    近年来,行业内部大企业集团尤其是上市公司的兼并、重组,呈现出越来越密集、越来越复杂、规模越来越大、运作过程越来越难的趋势。被整合的企业,一般都是一块“烫手的山竽”,弄不好将会落得个“赔了夫人又折兵”的结果。纵观那些企业之间兼并、重组的失败的案例,原因自然是多方面的,但企业文化方面的不相容是一个很重要的原因。本文通过对世界上两次大的汽车行业的兼并重组失败与成功案例的分析,佐证企业文化的融合在企业兼并重组中的重要地位和作用。 1998年,当戴姆勒―奔驰公司和克莱斯勒公司宣布斥资360亿美元实现“同等地位的合并”的消息公布时,这场婚姻被称为世界汽车业的“天作之美”。然而,由于企业文化存在的巨大差异,使这次大家都看好的整合成为世界汽车业兼并史上的“滑铁卢”。 而同是两个汽车制造大企业安徽省江淮汽车集团与安徽省安凯客车集团公司的整合,却由于采取了文化理念的先期导入,各项要素的优化组合,债权、股权的系列调整,使江淮和安凯的资源优势得到了互补、文化理念实现了“共鸣”、资本整合实现了“双赢”。使这一历时两年半的整合获得了巨大成功。 文化先期导、无形资产整合先行,通道打开后,再进行有形资产的各项整合,正是“江淮一安凯”整合模式的精髓所在。
  • 详情 健康保险与第三方健康管理
    对医疗服务提供者的管理成效将决定健康险公司的经营利润。对我国现阶段各保险公司的健康管理模式进行分析研究发现,第三方健康管理将成为我国健康险发展中健康管理的主导管理模式,无论是在参保人群医疗服务成本控制,还是在健康干预行为方面都将发挥其独特的功能和作用。健康险公司适时制定健康管理模式战略是公司实现利润达成的重要保证。
  • 详情 中小企业板不妨“一股独大”
    中小企业板开张之后,经常可以在媒体上看到业界对中小板仍然没解决“一股独大问题”的质疑。然而,当我们从另外一个角度来看时,却发现:中小板完全有必要保持一股独大的股权结构!这一点,是它与主板的明显不同之处。也就是说,一股独大在主板上是一个应当克服的沉年积弊,但在中小板市场上却是一个应当保持的优良结构!
  • 详情 在个人理财服务中影响服务质量的因素以及作用分析
    个人理财服务是国外商业银行中相当成熟的一项服务,而在我国才刚刚起步。本文主要从理财服务质量入手,分析影响服务质量的关键因素,揭示各个因素在服务交付过程不同阶段所起的作用并提出相应的服务营销建议,最后指出今后的研究方向。 Personal financing is a well-developed service in western commercial banks; however, it is still an emerging and immature service in China. With the beginning of the service quality analysis in personnel financing services, this article refines the critical factors effecting customer satisfaction, analyzes the different roles of these factors in different stage of service-delivery process, and finally proposes the conclusions and the direction of the future research.