This paper uses the IV-2SLS model to explore the impact of analyst attention on firms' internal and external innovation paths from a dynamic perspective of the life cycle. When firms are in the growth stage, the higher the analyst attention, the more firms will significantly increase their internal R&D efforts and make active technology acquisitions; As firms enter maturity, analyst attention plays a role in promoting R&D investment and corporate venture capital activities; When enterprises are in the recession period, firms are more inclined to innovate independently under the influence of analyst attention. This bias is more significant in non-state enterprises and high-tech enterprises. Further study finds that the interaction between analyst attention and firms' innovation path under different life cycles effectively enhances innovation output.

We examine the determinants and consequences of an important but understudied strategy in managing political risks—firm political alignment (FPA). Using a GPT large language model, we measure FPA as the extent to which firms align their actions and commitments with government agendas as presented in annual reports. Leveraging two political events in China, we find that: 1) as the anti-corruption campaign that started in 2012 and later spread across different provinces serves as a staggered shock that reduces the effectiveness of political ties, firms increase their FPA in response; 2) the extent of FPA largely mitigates the negative market reaction around the announcement of the common prosperity policy in 2021 which heightens policy uncertainty for non-state-owned firms. Overall, our findings provide novel evidence that firms engage in FPA to manage political risk.

Background and objective:In southern China, in 2021, there have been being in hot Summer in more than 67 cities, counties or areas, with the hot temperature 30 degrees Celsius and more than 30 degrees Celsius with the highest as 34 degrees Celsius.After the Chinese lunar year and the 24 Solar Term, the beginning of winter has passed 5 days. And there have 23 cities, counties or areas which the temperature have reached the highest 34 degrees Celsius. Which all are rare in the weather history in China in the aspects of the highest temperature as 34 degrees Celsius and in large part of southern China in early Winter. As the World Health Organization, the United Nations and the world have been striving for preventing and curing the climate changes. And have been paying special attention to the health impacts by the climate changes. In China, after the history hottest Summer suffered from by the Chinese in 2022. The Chinese have been continuing to suffer from the hottest temperature like Summer in the early winter. So the weather in China is not normal comparing to the post years. And it is sure that the climate changes impacts on Chinese in China in 2022 have been evidenced. As I have been being a senior doctor treating and preventing patients and promoting the public health more than 35 years. I have the duty and the motive to do something to prevent and cure the climate changes and their impacts on public health. So in this research I especially create and propose a new draft law, the China climate changes prevention law, to speed, administrate and guard China doing well in preventing climate changes in China and the world. Methods: Summarized the public health promotion and environment protection in China and in author own doing. Referenced the present new situation of climate changes in China and the world. Created the China climate changes prevention law in draft and in central strategies. Results: The China climate changes prevention law in central strategies as follows: 1.In order to prevent and cure the climate changes and their impacts on public health and mankind, the China climate changes prevention law must be created as soon as possible. 2.All Chinese people and every government department and any unit must pay special attention to the climate changes and their impacts on public health and mankind. And must be consider it as the first doing job among the all works in any unit. 3.China own scientific research must be done as early as possible and as deeply as possible to find the etiology and mechanism of the climate changes and their impacts on public health and mankind. When the etiology and mechanism research have gained achievements. The application must be done as soon as possible. 4.The present achievements of etiology and mechanism of the climate changes and their impacts on public health and mankind must be applied as soon as possible. 5.All the policies of the United Nations and its organizations for controlling the climate changes must be signed and applied totally and completely as soon as possible. 6.China should be the leader of controlling the climate changes in the world. The significant China strategies must be contributed to the world for controlling the climate changes as soon as possible as China is the biggest country in population. 7.From birth and kindergarten to the time before death,the knowledge of environment protection and climate changes prevention, cure must be educated constantly to every Chinese. 8.The precondition for organizing any new unit and old unit must pass the exam of climate changes prevention. The concrete policies must be created and documented. 9.All over the China, the inspection stations must be built to monitor the climate changes wrongly doing. 10.Regulations and their process must be built to punish any anti law doers who promote the the climate changes. Also, reward any people and units who have contributed significantly to the prevention of climate changes. 11.Cooperation with internationals must be indispensable. 12.As the village of the Earth, open policies must be built to let internationals to inspect, learn,study and cooperation,etc. in China. 13.As the climate changes impacts on the Chinese and the mankind, the medical support, research, prevention, treatment, education and other health promotion policies must be created and built to protect the Chinese and the mankind from harming by the climate changes. The universities, hospitals, institutes should operate the climate changes impacts medical science. 14.Summarizing the doings of the climate changes prevention constantly to make progress further. 15.Liberating the thoughts of the leaders and the ordinary people, throwing away any selfish doing of only pursuing own country economic development at the price of world climate changes impact worse in the Earth and the space. Conclusion: The China climate changes prevention law in draft comes from the candid invention of the author by summarized the present situation of climate changes impacts in China and the world. The 15 paragraphs of the new China climate changes prevention law is valuable, as up to now, China has not built this kind of law. This proposal of the new China climate changes prevention law is worthwhile to referenced by China lawmakers, world countries lawmakers, the UN and its organizations and related others.

Objective: In order to prevent and cure the more and more worse greenhouse effects, climate change impacts and living environment for man kinds, new dangerious factors must be found, identified and prevented. Method: Summarized and research the facts of China as the top consumer of refrigerant. So China is the top consumer and elininater of the Freon and alike chemicals. So call for preventing and curing the worse green house effects, climate change impacts caused by the Freon and alike chemicals. Results: As China is the biggest country in the world with 1.4billions people and top economic power. China should be the leader to control the Freon and alike chemicals, and the green house effect and the global warming. But now, China has been still being the top consumer of the Freon and alike chemicals or the top consumer of refrigerant. We must face squarely what shortcomings we have had. And correct it at once.As the facts tell us the Freon and alike chemicals have been the dangerious factors of the green house effect and the global warming. So we can create new policy and science to reduce and control the Freon and alike chemicals at once. And so on the green house effect and the global warming. Everywhere in China there has been being all air conditioners, ice chestn and refrigerators have been consuming and emitting the Freon and alike chemicals. After China had been producing main part of CFC of Freon in the world. And the CFC of Freon have been banned. China has been changing to HCFC of Freon and HFC of Freon as substitutes. It has been being known to all that every place in China, where people live and work. There must have air conditioners, ice chestn and refrigerators. From family households, factories, government offices, hospitals, tools of transportation, even the spacecrafts have been being equipped with air conditioners, ice chestn and refrigerators. All the air conditioners, ice chestn and refrigerators have been consuming and emitting the HCFC of Freon and HFC of Freon after CFC of Freon. Because the China is the biggest country in the world. The population of China is the much too more than any other country in the world. So the family households, factories, government offices, hospitals, tools of transportation must be much too more than any other country in the world. Therefore, the air conditioners, ice chestn and refrigerators also must be much too more than any other country in the world. At present, China must have been consuming and emitting the HCFC of Freon and HFC of Freon more than other countries. HCFC and HFC of Freon are not green products and environmental protection products Though HCFC of Freon has less effect to deplete the Ozone Layer. But it is not the perfect substances. Some HCFC of Freon have been being banned from usage. Which indicate that the HCFC of Freon are not green products and environmental protection products. While theoretically, the ODP (The Ozone Depletion Potential) of HFC of Freon is 0. But the Global warming potential(GWP) is very high. Therefore, the HFC of Freon are also not green products and environmental protection products. While China has been being the biggest and main producer and consumer of the banned CFC of Freon and the biggest and main producer and consumer of the HCFC and HFC of Freon. So Chinese air conditioners, ice chestn and refrigerators must make more Ozone Depletion and Global warming substances. Conclusion: The concrete policies must be created as soon as possible. Reducing the top consumer and elininater of the Freon and alike chemicals or create new chemicals without the worse green house effects, climate change impacts were China’s and world’s imperative policy.

Objective: In order to prevent and cure the more and more worse greenhouse effects, climate change impacts and living environment for man kinds, new administration strategies must be created. So the research has been done. Methods: Summarized and research the present situations and facts of preventing and curing the worse green house effects, climate change impacts and living environment. And create the new administration strategies. Results: The present situations and facts of preventing and curing the worse green house effects, climate change impacts and living environment are critical and in emergency. And the solutions have not been being effective. There are 8 facts for less effective doing have been summarized. They include the world now, mainly pay attention to CO2 emission reducing, but not all greenhouse gases, etc.. And the 9 new administration strategies have been proposed. The first one is that China, other countries and international professional agencies must change their administration thinking immediately. And pay broad and whole attention to reduce whole greenhouse gases to the aims of zero emission. Not just only play technology of Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage. The second one is that China, other countries and international professional agencies must put the recovering the worse greenhouse effects and climate change impacts as first duty and responsibility. And the other 7 strategies are in the text. Conclusion: It is imperative to prevent and cure the worse green house effects, climate change impacts and living environment for man kinds as soon as possible. As the man kinds have been suffering from the worse living environment day and night in more and more intensive speed and damage. The research have summarized the 8 principles facts about the shortcomings in controlling the worse green house effects and climate change impacts. Which should be paid attention by the related professionals and administrators. And the 9 proposed new administration strategies should also be referenced by the related professionals and administrators. As this kind of research has not been reported by other professionals.

ESG评级作为ESG相关的研究和决策的数据基础，存在着诸多不足。其中之一便是ESG评级分歧，即不同评级机构对同一家被评级企业给出的ESG评级存在较大差异。本研究以ESG评级分歧对债务成本的影响为例，提出了分析ESG评级分歧影响的理论解释和实证方法的框架。 理论上，本文提出ESG评级分歧会让市场认为企业没有规范透明的披露ESG信息，其真实ESG表现偏离ESG评级所代表的水平的风险更高，市场会对该风险要求一个溢价。在实证上，首先利用我国A股上市公司的ESG评级数据，在控制了ESG评级均值、评级机构数量、以及其他企业特征之后，我们发现ESG评级的标准差上升会导致企业债务成本上升。第二， 我们利用政策冲击解决内生性。香港交易所在2018年进行了改革，增加了ESG披露的规范性，我们用A股企业是否同时在香港上市和是否在2018年以后的交乘项作为ESG评级分歧的工具变量，发现结论仍然成立。第三，在控制代表了评级机构构成的一个交乘类别变量之后，此时评级分歧对债务成本的影响仍然存在，且相比基准分析变化很小。这表明本文的发现与评级机构的构成关系不大，而主要来源在于企业自身ESG披露规范性的差异。第四，我们发现企业向市场发出规范披露信号时，该影响变弱。当企业的ESG披露经过第三方鉴证或者是符合GRI标准时，评级分歧对债务成本的影响都大为减少。 本研究的发现具有重要的政策意义。首先本研究发现企业信息披露规范程度越高，该评级分歧对企业融资的负面影响就越低。因此，企业自身可以通过改善ESG信息披露的规范性和透明程度，来削弱这种负面影响。另一方面，利用政策冲击的分析表明，监管可以加强对ESG信息披露规范程度的强制要求，减少市场对不规范披露带来的ESG实际表现背离评级表现的担忧。 本研究对ESG评级分歧的影响提供了理论解释和实证检验的框架，为该领域后续的研究提供了参考。

Secular declines in U.S. Treasury yields are concentrated in three-day windows around FOMC announcement dates. Cumulative yield changes during these short windows explain the secular decline in yields. This factor contains essential information on excess bond returns and outperforms well-known proxies for interest rate trends in prediction regressions. We estimate a dynamic term structure model to explain these empirical facts. The model suggests that the secular declines in Treasury yields over the past three decades were primarily due to reductions in expected interest rates, mostly during the FOMC announcement windows.

厘清当前国际分工下的价值链是具有全球性特征还是更具区域性特征,这是探究当前国际分工构成以及未来分工发展等根本性贸易问题的基础,具有重要的理论意义。文章利用CEPII 双边贸易流量数据库,测算产品的平均进口距离用于衡量 1995—2014 年间价值链生产在全球性特征上的变化,并与 Eaton 和 Kortum（2002）框架下构造的理想“全球价值链”进行比较,分析评估全球化进一步发展的潜力。研究显示,1995—2014 年间“全球价值链”的发展极为有限,平均进口距离只增长了约 300 千米,距离理想的“全球价值链”下的进口距离差距很大,特别是中间品贸易的进口距离较短,说明价值链分工仍主要体现为区域性特征。在价值链呈区域性特征的背景下,各国更倾向于达成区域性的自由贸易协定以支持区域性的价值链生产,即一国价值链的区域性越强,则该 国签订的贸易协定区域性倾向就越强。该效应体现为一国中间品进口距离增加 100 千米,则该国与其贸易协定伙伴国的平均距离就增加约 389 千米。文章揭示了当前价值链分工的区域性特征,部分解释了近年来多边贸易协定推进困难的原因。

We study the role of marriage for women's intergenerational mobility during the Ming-Qing (1368-1911) period. Using status information based on the timing of marriage from family histories in Central China, already in the early 1500s it is the case that daughters from rich families attain higher status over their lifetime than daughters from poorer families. This intergenerational status persistence is partly due to marital sorting because daughters from highstatus families tend to become the wives of sons who themselves come from rich families. Quantitatively, the correlation of 0.6 between the status of biological and in-law families means that marriage accounts for more than one third of total intergenerational status transmission, while not accounting for marriage overestimates mobility by more than 20 percent. Further underscoring the importance of marriage, typically the status of the in-law family plays a larger role for intergenerational status transmission than the child's biological grandparents. Over the period 1500 to 1900, the degree of marital sorting falls, as does intergenerational persistence. Lower investments in the marriage market to find a good match for a daughter go hand in hand with the fall in the returns to son education due to the decline of China's civil service examination.

This paper proposes a novel bond return (price or yield curve) prediction methodology, unifying the classical no arbitrage pricing framework, which is ubiquitous and serves as a fundamental and theoretical building block in mathematical finance, and empirical asset (bond) pricing methodologies, e.g., Bianchi, Büchner, & Tamoni (2021) for treasury bonds and Gu, Kelly, & Xiu (2020) for equities. The methodology can be viewed as a unification of theoretical and empirical asset pricing frameworks. Our method is mathematically and theoretically rigorous, arbitrage-free and meantime enjoys the flexibility offered by the empirical asset pricing framework, i.e., a potentially rich factor structure and accurate function approximations via machine learning regression. Real market back-testing studies show that our predictions are accurate, in the sense that the formulated equally-weighted treasury bond portfolios in China exchange-based markets bear significant positive returns. The average hit rate for yield curve prediction reaches 77.71% across all tenors and the related long-only trading strategy based on the prediction results in an annualized absolute return as high as 12.35% with Calmar ratio achieving 7.31 for equally-weighted portfolios. As a by-product of our prediction framework, spot yield curves can be predicted accurately in an arbitrage-free manner.