• 详情 How Government Expenditure Redistributes Household Wealth in China: The Diverse Effects of Public Expenditure on the Housing Asset Value
    China’s household wealth is growing rapidly and has become significant worldwide. While the government played an important role in economic growth and wealth accumulation, few research has explained why and how government expenditure redistributes household wealth in China. This study uses China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) household survey (2010-2018) and prefecture-level data to estimate the impact of government expenditure on household wealth, especially the value of housing asset. We find that the capitalization of government expenditure contributes an important part to housing value appreciation, which accounts for more than 50% of household wealth. Furthermore, the impact mechanism of government expenditure on households’ wealth has a substantial redistributive effect. Government expenditures greatly advance the net worth of households who own their houses, especially for households that own two or more houses, but contribute much less to those comprising rental tenants.
  • 详情 High-Low Volatility Spillover Network in Chinese Financial Market from a Multiscale Perspective
    Based on the formation and evolution of systemic risk, this study proposes high and low volatility spillover networks and explores the characteristics of the evolution of systemic risk in Chinese financial market, and identifies the source of risk accumulation and risk outbreak, as well as the corresponding contagion mechanisms. Moreover, a new multiscale decomposition method (MVMD) is used to decompose high and low volatility into different time frequency components (short-term and long-term), and the corresponding network is constructed. Upon comparing topological characteristics on each layer from system and individual levels, our results reveal that high and low volatility spillover networks have different network characteristics and evolution behaviors. At the individual level, bond market is always the largest risk net-receivers in the high and low volatility networks, while the futures market and the currency market are respectively risk net-emitters in the high and low volatility networks. Additionally, compared with high volatility network, the low volatility network has greater predictive ability for financial risk. Finally, frequency analysis demonstrates that high-low volatility networks have different spillover intensity and network structure at different time frequencies. The above findings are beneficial for policy makers and investors to formulate appropriate strategies in different evolution of systemic risk and time frequency.
  • 详情 Greenium and Public Climate Concern: Evidence from China
    This paper measures the “greenium” in China’s stock markets with data during 2011-2020. We find that the green stocks outperform the brown ones in China and public climate concern brings the greenium. Based on the phenomenon, with panel regression, we furtherly figure out that the firms’ stock returns are positively correlated with their ESG rating, and public climate concern strengthens the relationship, which suggests that China’s stock investors behavioral bias contributes to greenium.
  • 详情 Green Governance: Exploring the Impact of Foreign Experience on Corporate Environmental Disclosure in China
    This study investigates the relationship between directors’ foreign experience and corporate environmental disclosure in Chinese listed firms from 2009 to 2017. The research shows that directors with foreign experience have a positive and significant impact on corporate environmental disclosure. This effect is more pronounced in nonstate-owned enterprises, where directors have greater influence over managerial decisions. Additionally, the study suggests that in industries with high energy consumption, high pollution, or overcapacity, the positive effect can be further enhanced by having at least three directors with foreign experience or foreign experience members in the audit committee. The impact of experiential diversity on environmental disclosure is greater than that of board gender and independence diversity. The findings suggest that policymakers and firms prioritize the recruitment of directors with diverse experiences to improve their environmental disclosure practices.
  • 详情 Geopolitical Risks, Investor Sentiment and Industry Stock Market Volatility in China: Evidence from a Quantile Regression Approach
    From an industry perspective, this paper applies the quantile regression to investigate the impact of investor sentiment (IS) and China’s/U.S. geopolitical risks (GPR) on Chinese stock market volatility. Considering the structural break of the stock market for theperiod2003/02-2021/10, we find that the impact of geopolitical risk on stock market volatility is highly heterogeneous, and its significance mostly appears in the upper and lower tails. At the market level, China’s and U.S. GPR/IS and their interaction effects have no significant impact on China’s stock market volatility. However, there has an asymmetric dependence between China’s and U.S. GPR/IS and stock market volatility, and the dependence structure is changing. At the industry level, the current and lagging effects of China’s and U.S. GPR on industry stock market volatility are heterogeneous. Second, for most industries, China’s and U.S. GPR/IS can exacerbate industry stock market volatility both in bullish and bearish markets. In addition, China’s and U.S.GPR/IS and their interaction effects are heterogeneous and asymmetric, and the effects changes with the break point. Finally, compared with China’s GPR, the U.S. GPR has a larger impact on the industry stock market. The interactive effects of the U.S. GPR and IS can influence more industry stock market volatility.
  • 详情 过度自信对大股东股权质押行为影响
    随着股权分置改革的基本落地,上市公司股份权责日渐规范,围绕公司股份所出现的权益融资、股权质押等操作日渐频繁,因而股权质押的相关理论研究的意义也愈加重大。本文在借鉴前人研究的基础上,采用理论分析和实证研究相结合的方法,结合行为金融学中过度自信的相关理论,通过大股东增持后的业绩改善情况衡量过度自信,研究过度自信倾向对大股东股权质押决策的影响。本文研究发现,过度自信对于股权质押的选择、股权质押的频率和累计股权质押比率均有正向影响,而过度自信的程度越高,也会越倾向于股权质押,并且质押比率会越高。通过对股权质押样本的平仓风险进行研究,发现大股东的过度自信程度越高,股权质押中的平仓风险会越大。
  • 详情 国有注资能提高企业的ESG表现吗?
    国有股权对企业非财务绩效的影响一直是政策制定者和学者们探讨的热点,但这方面的研究还存在较多的争议。使用2013-2022年的中国A股上市企业数据和交叠双重差分估计方法,本文探讨了国有注资所带来的国有股权对企业ESG表现这一非财务绩效的影响。研究发现,国有注资能够提高企业的ESG表现,且主要是通过缓解企业面临的融资约束,提高企业的外部监督和内部治理水平等方式来实现的。异质性分析表明,对于注资后成为国有资本相对控股和面临较大市值压力的企业来说,国有注资对ESG表现的正向影响更大。本研究不仅为有关国有股权与非财务绩效之间关系的争论提供了新的经验证据,还为中国正在进行的混合所有制改革和“双碳目标”的推进提供了启示。
  • 详情 自由贸易协定能否降低国际不平等交换——基于中国的实证研究
    自由贸易协定建设是中国扩大对外开放,深化与世界互动的重要举措。文章选取2000—2018 年全球 134 个国家和地区的面板数据,基于马克思国际价值理论构建各国(地区)与中国的国际不平等交换程度指数,继而检验与中国签署自由贸易协定对国际不平等交换的影响效应。结果表明,与中国签署自由贸易协定能显著降低其与中国之间的国际不平等交换程度,即相比于没有与中国签署自由贸易协定的国家(地区),与中国签署自由贸易协定的国家(地区)和中国之间的国际不平等交换程度减少了 23.07%,此效应主要体现在单位价值商品所包含劳动时间低于中国的国家(地区)上。究其机制,该效应源于与中国签署自由贸易协定能够显著提高该国(地区)与中国的贸易规模,减少该国(地区)与中国进出口商品种类的差异。进一步将上述效应与美国、日本、巴西、俄罗斯进行对比后发现,自由贸易协定对国际不平等交换程度的缓解效应并不具有普遍性,因国家(地区)而异,与中国签署自由贸易协定的缓解效应大于其他四个国家。文章的研究结论有效地反驳了“中国威胁论”“中国新殖民主义论”等观点。
  • 详情 国家治理与粮食安全:基于中国传统荒政思想的考察
    保障粮食安全是实现经济发展、社会稳定、国家安全的重要基础。抓好粮食生产是保障粮食安全的关键,而良好的国家治理体系是保障粮食安全的前提。主流文献已就事前粮食生产与预防思考、事后冲击评估及政策反思等问题做了大量探讨,但较少关注国家应急治理应采取怎样的事中应对策略以保障粮食安全。为此,文章从思想史角度出发,借鉴粮食获取权理论和国家能力四分法分析中国传统荒政思想的要旨和价值。研究发现:(1)中国传统荒政中增强粮食安全的措施大体可划分为四个维度,即在时间维度上的粮食资源跨周期调节、在空间维度上的粮食资源跨地区调节、在直接权利维度上的贷种借牛和蠲免缓征等措施、在贸易权利维度上的减免商税和以工代赈等措施。(2)中国传统荒政思想已经意识到,落实这些主张需要政府拥有强制能力以维持灾区秩序、汲 取能力以提供荒政所需资源、递送能力以实现救荒资源投放、信息决策能力以提升治理质量。(3)中国传统荒政思想的理论价值在于为马克思主义中国化粮食安全理论打通了历史根脉,其实践意义在于从完善国家治理体系角度为中国夯实粮食安全保障提供了历史经验,其世界意义在于为其他发展中国家提供了荒政理念校准、策略体系对照与治理技术参考。
  • 详情 Forecasting Stock Market Volatility with Realized Volatility, Volatility Components and Jump Dynamics
    This paper proposes the two-component realized EGARCH model with dynamic jump intensity (hereafter REGARCH-C-DJI model) to model and forecast stock market volatility. The key feature of our REGARCH-C-DJI model is its ability to exploit the high-frequency information as well as to capture the long memory volatility and jump dynamics. An empirical application to Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite (SSEC) index data shows the presence of high persistence of volatility and dynamic jumps in China’s stock market. More importantly, the REGARCH-C-DJI model dominates the GARCH, EGARCH, REGARCH and REGARCH-C models in terms of out-of-sample forecast performance. Our findings highlight the importance of accommodating the realized volatility, volatility components and jump dynamics in forecasting stock market volatility.