• 详情 Political Uncertainty and Revenue Sharing in International Contracting
    While previous research has delved into the relationship between political uncertainty and the aggregate cross-border flows of capital, there remains a notable gap in our understanding of how political uncertainty affects firm ownership structure within foreign direct investment (FDI) projects, specifically concerning the intensive margin. In this study, we commence by introducing a stylized model, wherein a risk-averse foreign investor teaming up with a local producer is concerned about the political risk associated with the provision of public goods by the local government. Our analysis demonstrates that the foreign investor, acting as a residual claimant, allocates a greater proportion of revenues to the local partner when local policy conditions are more uncertain. This strategic decision indirectly locks in local government commitment to the international joint venture, thereby mitigating the negative influence of political uncertainty. Subsequently, we test our theoretical framework by employing a unique dataset that encompasses city-level political turnovers and firm-level incentive structures in the context of China. The results unveil robust evidence substantiating that uncertainty arising from local political turnover significantly affects the revenue-sharing agreements between foreign investors and their local partners within the international joint production.
  • 详情 Production, Trade, and Cross-Border Data Flows
    We build a two-country general equilibrium model to analyze the effects of cross-border data flows and pre-existing development gaps in data economies on each country's production and international trade. Raw data as byproducts of consumption can be transformed into various types of working data (information) to be used by both domestic and foreign producers. Because data constitute a new production factor for intermediate goods, a large extant divide in data utilization can reduce or even freeze trade. Cross-border data flows mitigate the situation and improve welfare when added to international trade. Data-inefficient countries where data are less important in production enjoy a ``latecomer's advantage'' with international trade and data flows, contributing more raw data from which the data-efficient countries generate knowledge for production. Furthermore, cross-border data flows can reverse the cyclicity of working data usage after productivity shocks, whereas shocks to data privacy or import costs have opposite effects on domestic and foreign data sectors. The insights inform future research and policy discussions concerning data divide, data flows, and their implications for trade liberalization, the data labor market, among others.
  • 详情 Influence of health risk and longevity risk on residents' optimal annuity and nursing insurance decision
    This paper explores the relationship between longevity risk and health status transition under the framework of life cycle model to explore the optimal insurance allocation including annuity and nursing insurance under different incidence scenarios and the old-age security needs of residents Based on the data from China Health and Pension Tracking Survey (CHARLS), this paper calculates the health state transition probability of residents and calibrates the health state transition probability by using the mortality data of Lee-Carter model, and then solves the optimal insurance decision of residents under different incidence scenarios by multi-period life cycle model The results show that the demand for first annuity and nursing insurance is influenced by initial endowment, health status, minimum living and bequest motivation Residents with lower initial endowments are reluctant to buy annuities and nursing insurance because of precautionary savings motivation Expenditure on care insurance when purchasing both annuities and care insurance may weaken the demand for annuities Secondly, under the interaction of longevity risk and health status transition, residents have higher disability probability and higher demand for annuity and nursing insurance under the scenario of expanding incidence Thirdly, under the optimal wealth decision, the optimal allocation of annuity and nursing insurance makes the wealth level of residents more stable
  • 详情 Alternative Financial Institutions in China
    This chapter introduces alternative financial institutions (AFIs) in China that do not fall within traditional financial institution (FI) models. We describe their business models and development dynamics in the context of economic and financial reforms and technological advancement. We find that various AFIs are formed based on social, business, and virtual networks to overcome capital allocation barriers, reduce costs, or improve efficiency, providing financial services for the underserved. However, without proper regulations, these AFIs could pose alarming levels of risk on financial stability. They repeat a boom-and-bust pattern, in parallel with the government's initial laissez faire approach but later harsh interferences: being taken over by formal FIs or shut down as illegal practices until the exceptional Ant-Financial case. Improving investors' financial knowledge and regulators’ competency is critical for China to advance its financial system and develop mature FIs and AFIs. We recommend key features required in such a regulatory framework.
  • 详情 The Behaviour of Chinese Government Bond Yield Curve Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic
    The aim of the study is to investigate the behaviour of the Chinese government bond yield curve before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Its methodology comprises the techniques of time series analysis, correlation analysis and dimensionality reduction. The main empirical results show that in the pandemic period, the behaviour of the Chinese government bond yield curve differs significantly from that before the outbreak of COVID-19. This is evidenced by the weaker correlations among the analysed yields, the presence of anomalies, heterogeneous behaviour and probable arbitrage opportunities at the long-term end of the studied yield curve, as well as the significant changes in the main factors of its dynamics. The research also reveals that prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, portfolios composed of Chinese government bonds could be well protected against interest rate risk even by using traditional parallel shift immunization techniques. However, after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic the use of such techniques would be relatively effective for portfolios of Chinese government bonds with maturities between 1 and 5 years, while portfolios that include Chinese government bonds with maturities greater than 7 years should be either hedged against all the three factors of the yield curve dynamics or be used only for arbitrage strategies.
  • 详情 Modern Partnership System is a Booster for High-quality Development of Entrepreneurial Enterprises in the Era of Digital Intelligence
    In the era of digital economy, although the production (labor) tools of enterprises are digitalized, intelligent, and networked, and new characteristics and scenarios have emerged in enterprise operation and labor methods, the human capital possessed by workers has become the driving force for the sustainable development of entrepreneurial enterprises. Workers who master digital technology play a decisive role in the sustainable and healthy development of entrepreneurial enterprises. The article points out that in the era of digital economy, human capital is a key factor for economic growth and development. In the fields of mixed ownership and private economy, the employment system will gradually "retire", and modern partnership systems will prevail; The modern partnership system can motivate partners to collaborate and innovate, which is an upgrade of the manager system; The article briefly introduces the advantages and disadvantages of the dual ownership structure and the dynamic equity distribution mechanism of start-up companies; And the achievements made by Xiaomi Group, Huawei Company, and Midea Group in implementing a business partnership system.
  • 详情 The Positive Investment Premium in China
    We document a positive investment premium in the Chinese market, in contrast to the typical negative investment premium in other markets. The premium only exists when we measure investment by quarterly asset growth, not annual asset growth. A positive premium can be attributed to the fact that quarterly asset growth positively predicts future profitability and GDP growth in the Chinese market, whereas both relationships are negative in the U.S. market. Furthermore, Chinese rms have shorter operating cycles compared to those in the U.S., which explains why quarter data is more valuable.
  • 详情 Free cash flow productivity among Chinese listed companies: A comparative study of SOEs and non-SOEs
    This paper investigates the free cash flow productivity of SOEs compared with non-SOEs and examines its possible determinants. We find that SOEs have slightly weak free cash flow productivity but significantly stronger than non-SOEs. Similar performance exists among commercial class I and II SOEs and public-benefit SOEs. Further analyses suggest that firm size, age, sales growth, ownership concentration, government subsidies, and industry monopoly factors cannot explain this phenomenon. The common driver for all types of SOEs to generate stronger free cash flows than non-SOEs is their stronger expense control capability.
  • 详情 破净溢出效应与系统性金融风险
    本文基于中国上市银行理财子公司的理财产品数据,结合2022年11月的理财产品大规模破净现象,研究了理财产品破净溢出效应对上市银行的系统性金融风险的影响。研究结果表明,理财产品破净溢出效应能够显著降低上市银行的系统性金融风险,但同时也显著增加整个金融体系的系统性金融风险。不同类型的理财产品,如固定收益类、中低风险和开放式理财产品对系统性金融风险的影响存在差异。金融传染或风险溢出效应并非破净溢出效应的主要驱动因素。因此,理财子公司作为银行网络的外围节点,能够有效分散银行风险,而理财产品的全面净值化能够快速识别、度量和释放底层资产风险,从而降低整个银行体系的系统性金融风险水平。这些发现对于进一步加强理财产品市场监管制度建设,提高系统性金融风险防范能力具有重要意义。
  • 详情 僵尸企业债券定价扭曲与资源配置效率 :基于金融分权视角的解释
    本文利用2008-2020年国有企业债券数据实证检验僵尸企业的债券定价问题。实证结果表明僵尸企业债券存在严重的定价扭曲,且这种扭曲效应能够传染到非僵尸企业债券定价中,进而导致整个债券市场定价扭曲。具体地,(1)相比于非僵尸企业,僵尸企业的信用利差较低,且存在一二级市场价差为负的情况,上述结论证实了僵尸企业债券存在定价扭曲问题。(2)上述扭曲效应在地方政府财政健康度差、承销商受地方政府控制力度大、银行承销商业绩基本面差、银行与企业存在借贷关系、以及僵尸企业风险大的组中更加显著,这些结果说明在金融分权下,地方政府通过其控制的金融资源(银行承销商)帮助僵尸企业发行债券。(3)一个省份中僵尸企业比例越大时,非僵尸企业债券的发行信用利差越低,债券市场非僵尸企业的业绩基本面没有发生显著变化,同时非僵尸企业发行债券的一二级市场价差也越小。这个结果说明,僵尸企业债券的定价扭曲会导致整个债券市场定价效率低下。本文研究结论为加快出清僵尸企业、促进与完善市场化发行机制,以及提高债券市场信息披露质量提供了相应的经验证据。