• 详情 Chinese Insurance Markets: Developments and Prospects
    In this chapter, we review the development of the insurance industry in China. We provide a comprehensive discussion of its regulatory framework, major insurance segments, market structure, InsurTech, social insurance and the prospects for the future development.
  • 详情 碳价格,绿色投资与债券信用利差
    “双碳”目标下企业的绿色投资及风险管理策略受到预期碳价格变动的影响,并且绿色投资最优决策需要企业权衡投资不足的机会成本和绿色债务无法偿还的违约成本。考虑外部融资风险和随机流动性冲击,本文建立一个理论模型,量化研究碳价格对企业最优绿色投资规模和绿色债券信用利差的影响机制。碳资产可被质押使得碳价格在直接影响违约边界的同时,也通过影响绿色投资规模间接影响企业的违约边界,且模型发现由于碳价格对企业违约概率和违约成本的非对称影响,碳价格对信用风险的直接影响大于间接影响。理论结果与进一步的实证分析表明:碳价格的提高能够改善绿色投资企业的信用风险,降低绿色债券信用利差;存在碳价格的高低双重门槛来决定企业的最优绿色投资决策,当碳价格低于影子价格时,随着碳价格的提高,最优绿色投资规模增加、现金持有水平降低,而当碳价格处于显著大于影子价格的较高水平时,碳价格的提高反而降低最优绿色投资规模、提高现金持有水平;此外,当碳价格分别大于和小于高低门槛值时,企业绿色债券信用利差随着绿色投资规模的增加而分别相应地增加和减少。本文研究有助于更深入地理解碳定价机制对企业绿色投资决策和绿色债券定价所发挥的作用与微观机理。
  • 详情 金融不确定性与宏观经济尾部风险
    本文构建理论模型分析金融不确定性与经济下行风险之间的关系,并结合实证研究进行检验。理论模型基于风险积累渠道描述了金融不确定性通过干扰银行部门正确预期的形成,影响其主动风险承担水平,并最终影响经济下行风险的传导机制。实证部分基于 Jurado et al(2015)的大数据方法构建金融不确定性指数,并使用分位数回归从宏观层面进行研究,结果表明扩张波动期的金融不确定性对中长期经济增长左尾分布有显著的负面影响,这是由于扩张波动期的金融不确定性会使银行部门预期向好偏差,银行部门将提高其主动风险承担水平,从而增加中长期经济下行风险;紧缩波动期的金融不确定性将使银行部门预期向坏偏差,进而导致其主动风险承担水平下降,但该风险积累渠道发挥的作用较弱,此机制下金融不确定性对中长期经济下行风险的抑制作用不明显。
  • 详情 碳风险、区域低碳转型与银团贷款定价
    《巴黎气候协定》以及碳达峰、碳中和目标要求中国向低碳经济发展模式转型。本文以《巴黎气候协定》签署为事件冲击,采用连续型 DID 模型探究了区域低碳转型风险对银团贷款定价的影响。研究发现,自协定签署后,中国高碳排放地区的银团贷款存在显著为正的碳风险溢价;由于地区碳风险导致贷款违约风险上升,从而提高了企业贷款成本。此外,研究还发现:碳风险溢价的高低受地区自然环境和制度环境特征的影响;在法制化程度高的地区,银行因承担污染连带责任而提高对碳风险的重视程度,相应地提高了碳风险溢价;在产品市场发育程度高的地区,价格机制和竞争机制能够激励低碳产品生产和低碳技术研发,从而降低碳风险溢价;在发生气候灾害的地区,银行执行国家救济职能,会降低碳风险溢价;在森林覆盖率高的地区,碳中和更易实现,林业碳汇收益和碳汇抵押资产能够增加现金流并降低信用风险,从而降低碳风险溢价。本文研究对于推动中国区域低碳转型和降低企业融资成本具有重要的政策启示意义。
  • 详情 Exodus: The Economics of Independent Director Dissent and Exit
    We examine the economics of independent directors’ resignation decisions by taking advantage of a natural setting: The revised Securities Law of the People’s Republic of China, which took effect on March 1, 2020 (hereafter New Securities Law or NSL), and the first successful class-action securities lawsuit on November 12, 2021. We argue that by increasing 18-fold the penalties to directors of firmsthat misreport, NSL reduces by the same factor the maximum probability of getting caught at which director positions remain economically viable. We predict and find that in the short run when director compensation is fixed, NSL leads to more frequent voluntary resignations, particularly in firms that have a higher ex-ante likelihood of financial misreporting, and in firms where director compensation is lower. We also find that independent director dissent that arises primarily as a result of directors’ inability to establish whether their firms’ financial reports are reliable is a significant antecedent to voluntary resignations post NSL. Finally, analyzing the fraction of Chinese publicly traded firms that purchase director and officer liability (D&O) insurance, we find that independent directors are less likely to resign pre NSL but more likely to resign post NSL. Thisfinding suggeststhat firms with higher misreporting risk self-select pre NSL into such contracts. Given directors’ valuable monitoring role, we expect to observe in the long run both increased independent director compensation and increased D&O insurance coverage.
  • 详情 中国私募股权母基金的投资绩效研究
    本文开创性地实证研究了中国私募股权母基金的投资绩效,探讨基于中国特色的不同类别母基金的绩效差异及形成原因。研究发现,母基金绩效差于直投基金。母基金背景有限合伙人(简称 LP)的绩效优于政府背景 LP,但差于企业背景 LP 和金融机构背景 LP。政府引导基金绩效差于市场化母基金,且同时差于国有背景市场化母基金和民营市场化母基金。非聚焦投资的母基金绩效优于其他各类聚焦投资的母基金。模拟抽样的结果显示,合成母基金绩效优于真实母基金,说明我国私募股权母基金不具备筛选优质子基金的能力,这与政府引导基金筛选能力较差有一定关联。本文的研究结果有利于了解当前母基金的生存状况和绩效运作,有效推动了相关领域的研究前沿。同时也为母基金,特别是政府引导基金提升配置水平和提高基金遴选能力提供一定的指导与帮助。
  • 详情 Punish One, Teach A Hundred: The Sobering Effect of Peer Punishment on the Unpunished
    Direct experience of a peer’s punishment might have a sobering effect above and beyond deterrence (information about punishments). We test this mechanism in China studying the reactions to listed state-owned enterprises’ (SOEs) punishments for fraudulent loan guarantees by firms in the same location or industry (peers) and non-peer firms, across SOEs and non-SOEs. After experiencing SOEs’ punishments, peer SOEs cut their loan guarantees by more than non-peer SOEs and peer non-SOEs, even if information is common to all firms. The reaction is stronger for peer SOEs whose CEOs have higher career concerns or face lower costs of cutting guarantees.
  • 详情 Dissecting the Lottery-Like Anomaly: Evidence from China
    This paper dissects the lottery-like anomaly in Chinese A-share stocks by decomposing total stock returns into overnight and intraday returns. Our findings indicate that the negative overnight returns are concentrated among lottery-like stocks, and the lottery-like anomaly is mainly driven by the overnight returns component. Considering the unique Chinese institutional features, our mechanism analysis reveals that the overnight returns induced lottery-like anomaly is more pronounced in stocks with high retail investors' gambling preference and high limits of arbitrage. Overall, our results suggest that investors optimism and trading constraints have a substantial impact on market efficiency in China.
  • 详情 Emerging market globalization and corporate ESG engagement: The role of MSCI Index
    This paper examines how globalization process shapes the corporate ESG efforts in emerging markets. Using a staggered difference-in-difference model based on the gradual inclusion of China's A-shares in the MSCI index, we find that public companies improved their ESG performance and disclosure quality after being included. The results are robust to propensity score matched sample. Notably, the impact on ESG disclosure was significantly greater than on ESG performance, and the effect is more pronounced for non-SOEs and firms with weak governance. The inclusion also leads to significant increasesin foreign holdings, the proportion of women directors, and analyst attention, which have promoting effects on corporate ESG performance and disclosure ratings. This study sheds light on the macro-level determinants of corporate ESG engagement.
  • 详情 Does Disclosing Well Lead to Doing Good?
    Firms in China increase green innovation following a mandate that requires them to regularly disclose their corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities. Further analyses show that the CSR disclosure mandate leads to higher media coverage of disclosing firms' environmental issues, and the increase mainly comes from negative environmental news. By contrast, voluntary CSR disclosure does not affect corporate green innovation, and it increases positive but not negative environmental media coverage. These findings suggest that (1) it is the mandatory feature of the mandate, not the act of disclosure, that matters most for the positive effect on corporate green innovation; and (2) the negative media coverage induced by mandatory CSR disclosure plays a disciplinary role and promotes green innovation, while the positive media coverage induced by voluntary CSR disclosure does not.