• 详情 The Behaviour of Chinese Government Bond Yield Curve Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic
    The aim of the study is to investigate the behaviour of the Chinese government bond yield curve before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Its methodology comprises the techniques of time series analysis, correlation analysis and dimensionality reduction. The main empirical results show that in the pandemic period, the behaviour of the Chinese government bond yield curve differs significantly from that before the outbreak of COVID-19. This is evidenced by the weaker correlations among the analysed yields, the presence of anomalies, heterogeneous behaviour and probable arbitrage opportunities at the long-term end of the studied yield curve, as well as the significant changes in the main factors of its dynamics. The research also reveals that prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, portfolios composed of Chinese government bonds could be well protected against interest rate risk even by using traditional parallel shift immunization techniques. However, after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic the use of such techniques would be relatively effective for portfolios of Chinese government bonds with maturities between 1 and 5 years, while portfolios that include Chinese government bonds with maturities greater than 7 years should be either hedged against all the three factors of the yield curve dynamics or be used only for arbitrage strategies.
  • 详情 Modern Partnership System is a Booster for High-quality Development of Entrepreneurial Enterprises in the Era of Digital Intelligence
    In the era of digital economy, although the production (labor) tools of enterprises are digitalized, intelligent, and networked, and new characteristics and scenarios have emerged in enterprise operation and labor methods, the human capital possessed by workers has become the driving force for the sustainable development of entrepreneurial enterprises. Workers who master digital technology play a decisive role in the sustainable and healthy development of entrepreneurial enterprises. The article points out that in the era of digital economy, human capital is a key factor for economic growth and development. In the fields of mixed ownership and private economy, the employment system will gradually "retire", and modern partnership systems will prevail; The modern partnership system can motivate partners to collaborate and innovate, which is an upgrade of the manager system; The article briefly introduces the advantages and disadvantages of the dual ownership structure and the dynamic equity distribution mechanism of start-up companies; And the achievements made by Xiaomi Group, Huawei Company, and Midea Group in implementing a business partnership system.
  • 详情 The Positive Investment Premium in China
    We document a positive investment premium in the Chinese market, in contrast to the typical negative investment premium in other markets. The premium only exists when we measure investment by quarterly asset growth, not annual asset growth. A positive premium can be attributed to the fact that quarterly asset growth positively predicts future profitability and GDP growth in the Chinese market, whereas both relationships are negative in the U.S. market. Furthermore, Chinese rms have shorter operating cycles compared to those in the U.S., which explains why quarter data is more valuable.
  • 详情 Free cash flow productivity among Chinese listed companies: A comparative study of SOEs and non-SOEs
    This paper investigates the free cash flow productivity of SOEs compared with non-SOEs and examines its possible determinants. We find that SOEs have slightly weak free cash flow productivity but significantly stronger than non-SOEs. Similar performance exists among commercial class I and II SOEs and public-benefit SOEs. Further analyses suggest that firm size, age, sales growth, ownership concentration, government subsidies, and industry monopoly factors cannot explain this phenomenon. The common driver for all types of SOEs to generate stronger free cash flows than non-SOEs is their stronger expense control capability.
  • 详情 破净溢出效应与系统性金融风险
    本文基于中国上市银行理财子公司的理财产品数据,结合2022年11月的理财产品大规模破净现象,研究了理财产品破净溢出效应对上市银行的系统性金融风险的影响。研究结果表明,理财产品破净溢出效应能够显著降低上市银行的系统性金融风险,但同时也显著增加整个金融体系的系统性金融风险。不同类型的理财产品,如固定收益类、中低风险和开放式理财产品对系统性金融风险的影响存在差异。金融传染或风险溢出效应并非破净溢出效应的主要驱动因素。因此,理财子公司作为银行网络的外围节点,能够有效分散银行风险,而理财产品的全面净值化能够快速识别、度量和释放底层资产风险,从而降低整个银行体系的系统性金融风险水平。这些发现对于进一步加强理财产品市场监管制度建设,提高系统性金融风险防范能力具有重要意义。
  • 详情 僵尸企业债券定价扭曲与资源配置效率 :基于金融分权视角的解释
    本文利用2008-2020年国有企业债券数据实证检验僵尸企业的债券定价问题。实证结果表明僵尸企业债券存在严重的定价扭曲,且这种扭曲效应能够传染到非僵尸企业债券定价中,进而导致整个债券市场定价扭曲。具体地,(1)相比于非僵尸企业,僵尸企业的信用利差较低,且存在一二级市场价差为负的情况,上述结论证实了僵尸企业债券存在定价扭曲问题。(2)上述扭曲效应在地方政府财政健康度差、承销商受地方政府控制力度大、银行承销商业绩基本面差、银行与企业存在借贷关系、以及僵尸企业风险大的组中更加显著,这些结果说明在金融分权下,地方政府通过其控制的金融资源(银行承销商)帮助僵尸企业发行债券。(3)一个省份中僵尸企业比例越大时,非僵尸企业债券的发行信用利差越低,债券市场非僵尸企业的业绩基本面没有发生显著变化,同时非僵尸企业发行债券的一二级市场价差也越小。这个结果说明,僵尸企业债券的定价扭曲会导致整个债券市场定价效率低下。本文研究结论为加快出清僵尸企业、促进与完善市场化发行机制,以及提高债券市场信息披露质量提供了相应的经验证据。
  • 详情 国内供应链构建水平与企业进口议价能力——基于上市公司的经验证据
    对于参与国际循环而言,构建国内大循环的意义何在?依托大国市场优势构建国内供应链,将对中国企业进口议价能力产生何种影响?文章通过综合利用中国上市公司供应链数据库、Wind上市公司数据库和中国海关数据库的匹配数据,研究发现:(1)“入世”以来,中国制造类上市公司的国内供应链构建水平及其进口议价能力均呈现出先抑后扬的发展态势。(2)国内供应链的构建有效增强了企业进口议价能力,该影响在高技术密集型部门、民营企业、沿海地区、加工贸易企业及全球价值链下游企业中的表现尤为显著。(3)进口替代效应、技术进步效应和企业成长效应是国内供应链促进企业进口议价能力提升的重要途径。(4)相对于省内供应链,突破本地市场边界的区域内供应链、跨区域供应链、全国供应链的构建,对于企业进口议价能力提升的作用更加明显。文章研究表明,以国内供应链构建进一步增强企业进口议价能力,应加快内资企业成长,培育国内供应链“链主”;依托超大规模市场潜力,提升国内生产配套能力;协调区域专业化分工,加快国内产业梯度转移。
  • 详情 Human Capital is the Driving Force for the Sustainable Development of Entrepreneurial Enterprises in the Digital Economy Era
    The rapid development of the digital economy is driving profound changes in production methods, lifestyles, and corporate governance. Human society has entered a new era where digital technology is rapidly advancing and playing an important role. In the era of digital economy, although the production (labor) tools of enterprises are digitized, intelligent, and networked, and new characteristics and scenarios have emerged in the operation and labor methods of enterprises, the human capital possessed by workers has become the driving force for the sustainable development of entrepreneurial enterprises. Workers who master digital technology play a decisive role in the sustainable and healthy development of entrepreneurial enterprises. The article briefly introduces the establishment and development of human capital theory, pointing out that in the digital economy era, human capital has greater potential for appreciation, and its marginal returns show a trend of increasing; Human capital is a key factor in economic growth and development. The surplus of producers in an enterprise refers to the income that producers receive in excess of their production costs. The owners of human resources should receive a portion of the investment return that should belong to human capital from the enterprise in the form of "producer equity", "labor stock", or equity incentives in proportion. Equity incentives have become an important corporate governance mechanism in the capital market. The article also elaborates on the modern partnership system, which can motivate partners to collaborate and innovate, and is an upgrade of the manager system; Briefly introduced the achievements made by Xiaomi Group and Huawei in implementing the business partner system.
  • 详情 Down Payment Requirements and House Prices: Quasi-Experiment Evidence from Shanghai
    Using the regression discontinuity design, a quasi-experiment approach, this paper establishes a causal relationship between the down payment requirement and house prices by exploiting a unique institutional background in Shanghai. In the unique setting, the required minimal down payment ratio jumps at the Inner Ring, a circular elevated highway, from 50% to 70% for a large group of buyers. With transaction level data from the largest real estate broker in Shanghai, we find that a lower required down payment ratio increases the apartment price by 138.8 thousand RMB, around 3.71% of the average transaction price.
  • 详情 我国应如何构建中国特色改装车保险
    伴随着汽⻋市场主要消费群体年轻化、追求个性化时尚潮流使得汽⻋ 改装成为汽⻋产业链的重要组成部分。由于国内缺乏具体针对改装⻋的法律法 规及汽⻋改装⾏业安全与质量监管标准,市场不规范且争议很⼤,消费者⾯对 改装⻋出险理赔难、配件承保难等问题。本⽂梳理对⽐美、英、⽇、德汽⻋改 装制度及法律,进⼀步根据《中华⼈⺠共和国道路交通安全法》、《中华⼈⺠ 公安部机动⻋登记规定》对改装⻋保险在中国的可⾏性进⾏阐述,对中国改装 ⻋保险定价模型进⾏初步设计。研究发现改装⻋保险在中国实⾏存在⼀定难度。 主要问题包括:现阶段法律制度尚不完善、改装⻋安全与性能⽆法保证、保险 欺诈难以识别等。据此,本⽂提出如下解决办法:中国政府和相关⾏业协会应 出台有关政策法规清晰划分合法改装⻋的范围;改装⻋⾏业需要坚持规范和标 准化,加强对⻋辆的安全评估和标准化管理,保证质量和安全性;保险公司需 结合实际情况来定价和赔付,依靠强⼤的信息系统和智能化的⻛险评估来减少 ⻛险。以此助⼒中国汽⻋产业和保险市场的创新与发展。