摘要：以ChatGPT为代表的现象级的人工智能出现，未来势必拥有更大的普及性金融场景应用，预判其对金融市场有效性的影响十分必要。ChatGPT人工智能未来对于金融市场的影响，存在着“二律背反”规律：即一方面人工智能加强信息传播所将使市场更接近于有效市场状态；但相反但是人工智能可能提供错误市场信息，从而加剧市场风险，降低市场有效性程度。通过中美股市数据的分析对比，发现完全有效市场理论中的“理性人”假设与现实情况不符，而因为“二律背反”，很难预测ChatGPT最终对于金融市场产生什么样的影响。

我国金融体系必须走出一条中国特色的金融服务实体经济、防范化解风险的发展之路，才能扬长避短地助力我国经济高质量发展、产业结构转型。我国金融体系、企业投融资具备三个鲜明特征，其一，政府政策和金融机构间存在共振特征，其二，存在显著的融资摩擦，其三，企业各项资产、融资工具存在风险传染特征。这三个鲜明特征与西方传统金融加速器理论基础假设相悖，会加强传统金融加速器的放大效应，加剧实体经济的波动。本文通过三种方式验证上述中国式金融加速器机制的存在，包括PPP政策冲击下典型行业与企业特征事实，引入三个特征假设后的金融加速器理论模型和进一步的数值模拟分析。本文还发现，缓和的调控政策和差别化的银行信贷策略可以缓解中国式金融加速器。本文成果有助于认识我国金融体系规律、防范化解实体经济风险与金融业高质量发展，对金融监管亦有贡献。

We study the relationship between common factor betas and the expected overnight versus intraday stock returns. Using data from the Chinese A-share markets, we find that the Fama-French five-factor betas and expected returns exhibit contrasting relationships overnight versus intraday. The market, value, and profitability factors earn positive beta premiums overnight and negative premiums intraday, while the size and investment factors’ beta premiums behave oppositely. The night and day factor beta premium differentials are more muted among stocks with higher investor sophistication and vary across macroeconomic conditions. The contrasting day and night beta premiums extend to some other common factors and Chinese B shares, and vary their signs for some factors in the U.S. market.

本文基于Jurado et al.(2015)提出的大数据分析方法，提出了基于中国整体经济和金融市场不确定性的个股不确定性的度量方法，并检验了在存在卖空限制的中国A股市场中的不确定性的定价，着重研究了融资融券的不对称性对个股不确定性定价的影响。股票特质性波动率刻画了股票收益率中不能被市场风险因子解释的波动，通常被用于度量不确定性，本文提出其中与宏观金融不确定性的相关部分才会在市场中被定价。本文提出利用股票收益率与宏观金融不确定性指数的绝对相关系数来刻画在市场中被定价的个股不确定性，并发现不确定性越高的股票预期收益越低，即不确定性溢价在A股为负，这与Miller(1977)的理论相一致，即在存在卖空限制的市场上，不确定性越大的股票其价值被高估程度越大，因此预期收益率越低。本文进一步发现融资融券限制放开之后，不确定性的负溢价略有降低，市场的定价效率有所改善但并不明显，反映了市场中存在的卖空限制和隐性卖空成本较高，及其对市场定价效率的负面影响。因此，在中国A股市场合理地放开融资融券限制，特别是有效降低融券成本、引入长期投资者提供优质券源，能够降低融资融券的不对称性，改善市场的定价效率，从而更好地发挥金融市场的资源配置作用。

在绿色供应链市场中，通过零售商向供应商提供投资或贷款，可以减少供应商资金不足、无法正常组织生产引起的零售商以及整个供应链利润的损失。本文假设市场总需求不确定，构建供应商资金约束情况下供应链内部的股权融资和债权融资模型，分析了供应商和零售商的最优决策和利润的影响。研究发现：随着消费者绿色偏好、零售商的风险厌恶程度以及股权比例的增加，产品绿色度和批发价格增加；当供应商进行融资时，若股权比例极低，应该选择债权融资方式进行融资，随着股权比例的增加，达到临界点之后，供应商应该选择股权融资。当股权比例满足一定条件下，供应商和零售商会达成共识选择股权融资模式进行融资，从而实现双赢。

中央财政部和审计署于2017年起开展了针对地方政府违规举债担保行为的核查和公开问责工作。本文从城投债切入，评估该公开问责对当地新增隐性债务的影响，发现：公开问责通过严厉“问责”大大激励当地省级政府去排查整改类似问题，从而削弱当地各级政府的举债激励和担保意愿，更低的举债激励缩减了隐性债务增量。继而投资者通过“公开”的问责信息，预期到当地各级政府的担保意愿下降，从而隐性债务融资成本增加，进一步缩减隐性债务增量。当公开问责力度更大时，上述效应更强。由此，本文提出要落实公开问责的严肃性和常态化安排。

China’s emissions trading system applies a two-stage emissions intensity-based compliance quota allocation scheme different from the cap-and-trade systems prevalent in developed economies. It was designed to accommodate the country’s socioeconomic complexities and implemented following a learning-by-doing approach. Compliance firms significantly expanded green investment and production workforce. Their climate decisions are influenced by state ownership and regional heterogeneity. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) and less liberal market firms increased hiring, but not investment; non-SOEs and more liberal market firms grew investment. There are mixed welfare effects: compliance firms maintained productivity and efficiency; however, ordinary workers’ real wages were reduced, more prominent in SOEs.

Starting from document research, this paper analyzes the mechanism of the risk spillover effect from developed capital markets to the Chinese capital market. After that, this paper conducts an empirical study on the risk spillover effect of developed capital markets on the Chinese capital market by using the DCC-GARCH model. Then the impact degree of global major stock market fluctuations on the Chinese stock market is measured. The analysis shows that there exists a significant risk spillover effect of developed capital markets on the Chinese capital market, but the effect began to weaken after the financial crisis and the size of the spillover effect can be affected by macro factors such as geographical locations, foreign trade, and foreign investment.

本研究采用弱方差标度指数方法，深入探讨了股票市场的有效性是否显著改善风险投资市场匹配度．研究发现，股票市场有效性的提高，有助于提升风险投资机构与被投资的创业企业之间的匹配度．本文不仅借鉴了现有文献中使用的两个工具变量——基金赎回压力和知情交易概率，还构建了一个新的工具变量：沪深A股市场的涨跌停占比，以解决潜在的因果关系疑虑．进一步研究证实：股票市场的有效性能够促进风险投资市场中的信息交换，提高风险承担水平，从而提升风险投资市场匹配度；股票市场的有效性对风险投资机构的退出表现具有积极影响．本研究不仅为理解金融市场对实体经济的影响提供了新的视角，而且强调了证券市场有效性的广泛正外部性，还为深入理解风险投资市场的投融资合作关系提供了新的理论视角和实证支持．

We propose a Capital Asset Pricing Model where investors exhibit prospect preferences. In equilibrium, we find that agents seek an optimal trade-off between expected returns, variance, and skewness. All assets in the economy are then priced by a three-factor model, which augments the security market line with two factors that respectively capture positive and negative coskewness with the market portfolio. Using U.S. stock market data, we find evidence consistent with these predictions. In additional tests, we find that the results are stronger among stocks traded by less sophisticated investors. Overall, prospect preferences have a substantial effect on stock prices.